Tag Archives: Yemen

TC Chapala, Yemen, & Texas Flooding

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Category 4 Chapala On Its Way to Yemen; Texas Gasping after More Record Rain

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 5:30 PM GMT on October 31, 2015

Tropical Cyclone Chapala, the second strongest storm on record for the Arabian Sea, is holding its own as it continues plowing westward toward Yemen. As of 8:00 am EDT Saturday, Chapala’s top sustained winds were down to 135 mph, at the other end of the Category 4 scale from the peak of 155 mph observed on Friday. After its structure was somewhat disrupted on Friday, perhaps by dry air intruding into its circulation, Chapala appears to be regrouping, with a solid inner core of convection and a distinct eye 10 miles in diameter.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen from the International Space Station at sunset on Halloween evening, October 31, 2015. At the time, Chapala was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. The coast of Oman/Yemen is visible at the bottom of the image. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Chapala as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite on Saturday morning, October 31, 2015. At the time, Chapala was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast for Chapala
The biggest change since Friday is a southward departure in Chapala’s track. The cyclone is now heading due west and should continue on that bearing for the next couple of days, with a slight curve to the west-northwest as it approaches Yemen on Monday night. Chapala’s healthy structure may keep dry air at bay for some time, but eventually the cyclone should weaken as it near the Arabian Peninsula and ingests greater amounts of parched desert air. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center brings Chapala onshore in the high tropical-storm-strength range, with sustained winds possibly close to hurricane strength.


Figure 3. Three tropical cyclones are known to have made landfall on the southern coast of Oman and Yemen betwen 1891 and the beginning of modern satellite records (1990). Two of these reached northeast Yemen, in May 1959 and May 1960. Both were rated as “severe cyclonic storms” prior to landfall (solid line), meaning their top 3-minute average wind speeds were at least 48 knots (55 mph). Image credit: Courtesy Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Head, Cyclone Warning Division and Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, India Meteorological Department.

According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricanes tool, there have only been six major Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclones recorded in the Arabian Sea (though accurate satellite records go back to just 1990.) The Arabian Sea doesn’t get many tropical cyclones since it is small; furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon keeps the tropical cyclone season short, with a short season that lasts from May to early June before the monsoon arrives, then another short season in late October through November after the monsoon has departed. Strong Arabian Sea storms are rare due to high wind shear and copious dry air from the deserts of the Middle East, with just two Category 4 or 5 storms ever recorded–Gonu in 2007 and Phet in 2010. Both cyclones hit Oman after weakening below Category 4 strength.

Landfalling cyclones are even more rare in Yemen. The only one in the post-1990 satellite database is Tropical Depression Three of 2008 (also known as the 2008 Yemen Cyclone), which came on the heels of heavy rains from another storm and resulted in disastrous flooding. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, that storm killed 90 people and did $400 million in damage, making it the second worst natural disaster in Yemen’s history, behind a June 13, 1996 flood (thanks go to wunderground member TropicalAnalystwx13 for alerting us to this fact.) The India Meteorological Department maintains a database of tropical cyclones in the region going back to 1891 that shows two cyclonic storms reaching the Yemen coast in 1960 and 1961 (see Figure 3).


Figure 4. The port of Al Mukalla. Image credit: Roo72/Wikimedia Commons.


Figure 5. Topography of Yemen. Image credit: Sadalmelik/Wikimedia Commons.

Chapala’s southward track will make it only the second tropical cyclone recorded near the mouth of the Gulf of Aden, which is crossed by roughly 400 ships a week. The adjustment in Chapala’s track could have major implications for Yemen, as it brings the center closer to the 980-year-old settlement of Al Mukalla (also known as Mukalla), a busy port and Yemen’s fifth-largest city (population around 300,000). If Chapala were to pass just south of Al Mukalla, the sharp angle of approach to the coast would accentuate any storm surge. Yemen has been in the grip of a civil war since March, so any landfall near this populated area could intersect with the conflict in hard-to-predict ways. According to an October 30 article from Reuters, ten of Yemen’s 22 governorates were assessed as being in an emergency food situation in June, one step below famine on a five-point scale. The assessment has not been updated since then, partly because experts have not managed to get sufficient access to survey the situation. About a third of the country’s population, or 7.6 million people urgently require food aid, the The U.N. World Food Programme said (thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for alerting us to this article.)

As it moves ashore, Chapala will slam into steep mountains near the coast, boosting its potential to dump several years’ worth of rain in just a day or two (see Figure 6). The annual average rainfall in Yemen is less than 2” along the immediate coast and less than 5” inland, except along higher terrain, where it can approach 10”. Any landfall near Al Mukalla could result in serious urban flooding (the city straddles a canal that extends to the coast from the adjacent mountainsides).


Figure 6. The 5-day rainfall forecast from the 2 am EDT Saturday, October 31, 2015 run of the HWRF model called for some truly stunning rainfall amounts in the parched desert regions of eastern Yemen: over two feet! Image credit: NOAA/EMC.

Rain-weary Texans deal with another deluge
Yet another round of epic downpours struck the heart of Texas from Friday into Saturday. The focus on Friday morning was the HIll Country and the adjacent San Antonio and Austin metro areas, which suffered through record rain and destructive flooding back in May. The air traffic control center at Austin’s Bergstrom International Airport has been shut down after being inundated with six inches of water on Friday. A Houston center is handling its duties until a temporary facility arrives on Monday. Bergstrom received 5.76” of rain in just one hour, as part of a phenomenal calendar-day total of 14.99” on Friday. That’s more than the site had ever recorded in any prior 14-day period! (Records at Bergstrom go back to 1942. Thanks to Nick Wiltgen at weather.com for this statistic.). The total also came within a hair (0.067%) of reaching the city’s all-time 24-hour record of 15.00”, set at Camp Mabry on September 9, 1921, in association with a Category 1 hurricane that caused severe flooding in the San Antonio area. Further south, Brownsville had its second wettest October day in 128 years of recordkeeping, with 6.55” on Friday beaten only by 9.09” on October 4, 1996, in association with Tropical Storm Josephine. The absence of a tropical cyclone makes this event across central and south Texas all the more remarkable.


Figure 7. Jim Richardson and his wife Jeannette look on as the Blanco River recedes after the flash flood in Wimberly, Texas Friday, Oct. 30, 2015. A fast-moving storm packing heavy rain and destructive winds overwhelmed rivers and prompted evacuations Friday in the same area of Central Texas that saw devastating spring floods. Image credit: Ricardo Brazziell/Austin American-Statesman via AP.


Figure 8. Estimated rainfall between 7:00 am CDT Friday, October 30, and Saturday, October 31. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

A subsequent round of heavy thunderstorms moved into southeast Texas overnight and into Saturday morning, causing widespread flooding in the Houston area, as well as scattered wind damage perhaps associated with one or more tornadoes. With light rain hanging on at noon CDT Saturday, Houston’s Hobby Airport had received 6.50” for the day, bringing its monthly total to 14.24”. Hobby will fall short of the Houston area’s wettest October on record, 17.64” in 1949, a total largely goosed by a Category 2 hurricane early that month. The front edge of this sprawling area of heavy thunderstorms is now approaching southeast Louisiana, which has also been hammered by heavy rain in October. Baton Rouge had received 10.85” for the month as of Friday, and New Orleans 8.88”. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for as much as 5-6” of rain over the area today into Sunday. Baton Rouge has an outside chance of scoring its wettest October on record (17.64”, from 1949; records go back to 1889), as does the Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport (13.20” in 1985, in association with Hurricane Juan; records go back to 1946).

Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport racked up another 2.25” from Friday through 11:00 am CDT Saturday. The airport has now recorded 48.92” for the year, making 2015 the sixth wettest year since DFW-area records began in 1898. One of the most reliable U.S. impacts from El Niño is increased cold-season rainfall from Texas to Florida. Given the strong El Niño influence already at hand, DFW has a good chance over the next two months of topping 53.54” (1991) to score its wettest year on record. In fact, it could happen quite soon: WPC is projecting 2” to 5” of rain across central North Texas late next week, as another strong Pacific upper-level storm carves its way into the western U.S. That storm will give the Pacific Northwest a seasonally heavy drenching this weekend, and it may leave the first significant accumulation of the season along the snow-starved Sierra Nevada on Monday and Tuesday–perhaps as much as a foot on the highest peaks. A winter storm watch has been hoisted for the region, but we’re guessing most residents will be elated rather than spooked by this October 31 development. Have a great Halloween weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

from:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/category-4-chapala-on-its-way-to-yemen-texas-gasping-after-more-recor

New Island Created by Jebel Zubair Volcano

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Surtseyan eruption along the coast of Yemen forms a new island – Today eruption cloud + stain !

Last update: December 30, 2011 at 3:07 pm by By

Jorgen Aabech, a Norvegian volcano enthusiast writing already a long time in his blog vulkaner.no, wrote us an email on  December 20 to attract our attention on a probably new eruption of the Jebel Zubair volcano, which is an island formation on the territory of Yemen. Jorgen asked us if we had any mention of earthquakes in the area, which was negative.
When looking at the Modis Terra and Aqua satellite picture on December 20, we saw indeed a very small cloud in the island area, but nothing important to us.  We also followed the Sat24 weather satellite pictures for a while to eventually detect heat on their Infrared images, but also this was negative.  This whole eruption, actually found by the scanning of Jorgen Aalbach (if we are right), was almost forgotten until NASA’s Earth Observatory published a far better satellite picture showing more detail of the eruption. Just like during the Eritrea Nabro eruption, satellite images are the only source in this part of the world (in other words, these countries have other concerns than following an active volcano area all the time)

Update December 30
– NASA Modis Aqua satellite picture is showing more activity today. The quality of the Satellite images differs because of indirect circumstances like high cloud, etc (visual image)

 

Update December 29 (all other info below).
– As you can see on the picture above, the eruption is still ongoing (white cloud and blue stain)
– It is a pity that nobody was around to make beautiful pictures from this Surtseyan eruption (not too late though – to all nature photographers : take your backpack and travel to Yemen (do not forget to hire some armed guards as the country has still a lot of armed rebels and as almost everyone carries a knife and a gun).

NASA MODIS Aqua December 29 satellite picture showing eruption cloud and stain – courtsey NASA

– The Yemen times, a local Yemenite newspaper (who does not mention the creation of a new island) wrote the following :
The Monitoring Center for the Study of Earthquakes and Volcanoes has reported the presence of light volcanic activity on one of the unpopulated islands of ‘Jabal Al-Zubair’ archipelago, 120 km northwest of Hodeida Governorate. Jamal Sha’alan, the manager of the center said that initial indications are that the volcanic eruption was light and will not pose a threat to marine navigation. Saleh Al-Maflahi, the assistant manager of the center, also confirmed that initial indications of the volcanic eruption are reassuring, saying that the centre has commissioned technical experts to travel to the site of the volcano to conduct studies. The team has installed a seismic monitoring station there to alert them to seismic activity that may be the precursor to volcanic activity, according to Al-Maflahi. “The volcanic activity and rising smoke was witnessed by some visitors,” he said, adding that a good deal of seismic activity had recently taken place. He said that the results of a survey of the area’s volcanic history showed that Jabal Al-Zubair is an active volcanic site, and that it witnessed volcanic activity 187 years ago. In September 2007, a volcano on Jabal Al-Tair Island – 20 km southwest of Al-Zubair and 140 kilometers off Yemen’s western coastline – caused the death of eight Yemeni soldiers in addition to injuring others stationed at a military base. Read the complete article here

Distance from the new created island to “Rugged Island”, part of the Zubair volcano group

The text below is courtesy Jorgen Aabech vulkaner.no and a few other sources which are referred to if used

December 19 – Jorgen Aabech wrote in his blog :
A possible eruption occurred at Az Zubair archipelago on 19th December 2011. Fishermen from Salif port city in the west of Yemen reported seeing an eruption with red lava rising to a height of 30 m. This was the first eruption the fisherman can recall from the area. Satellite images showed raised sulphur dioxide emissions close to the volcano on the following day.
On December 19 the NASA Aura/OMI SO² satellite captured a picture that revealed a strong SO² cloud column. This satellite is of great importance to detect remote located volcanoes.

Aura/OMI NASA SO2 satellite image from the December 19 2011 Zubair volcano group Surtseyan eruptionAura/OMI NASA SO2 satellite image from the December 19 2011 Zubair volcano group Surtseyan eruption

Surtseyan eruption in Yemen - Image courtesy vulkaner.noSurtseyan eruption in Yemen – Image courtesy vulkaner.no

December 20 – Jorgen Aabech Update (based on what he also read in Erik Klemetti Wired corner)
It seems like there is a lot of confusion about exactly where the eruption is taking place. A number of sources put the eruption at Jebel Zubair, another island volcano that is part of an archipelago that last erupted in 1824. Jebel Zubair is just to the south of Jebel at Tair, so looking at the OMI map and the new MODIS image found by Eruptions reader Kirby that looks to have a small plume (see above), it is more likely Jebel Zubair. However, there is still not a lot of information out there on this eruption.

December 22 – Jorgen Aabech
On 19 December a SO2 cloud was detected in an OMI satellite image. MODIS imagery from 20 December shows a plume rising from a submarine eruption about 1.5 km SW of Haycock and N of Rugged (near the N end of the Az-Zubair island group), and about 12 km NE of Jebel Zubair island.
A bathymetric sketch map made in 1973 indicates a water depth of about 100 m in that area.

Yemen TV showed an unstable and bad colored report in their news. We cannot trace whether this report is from this eruption, but it was published as it on You Tube.  It is however hard to believe that the December 19 eruption (no other SO2 traces on the satellite maps) have build the island in only a week. A possibility is that the eruption had started a lot earlier in his submarine phase.

December 28 – Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism program writes :
An eruption from the northern part of the Zubair Group continued during 21-27 December. MODIS imagery from NASA’s satellites on 22 December showed a plume, possibly containing ash, rising from what was thought to be a submarine eruption. Imagery acquired on 23 December from the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s EO-1 satellite showed a new island at the location with a plume rising from it, roughly 500 m N of Rugged Island and more than 500 m in diameter. The island was not present in a similar image acquired on 24 October 2007.

December 28 – NASA Earth Observatory – Proof of a new island
The Picture combination below from NASA Earth Observatory shows the birth of the new island. The cloud picture was acquired by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite. A thick plume rises from the island, dark near the bottom and light near the top, perhaps a mixture of volcanic ash and water vapor.

NASA Earth Observatory shows the birth of the new Zubair volcano group islandNASA Earth Observatory shows the birth of the new Zubair volcano group island

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/12/29/surtseyan-eruption-along-the-coast-of-yemen-forms-a-new-island-today-eruption-cloud-stain/