Tag Archives: Tropical Storms

New Tropical Wave

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Potent Atlantic tropical wave could be big trouble for the United States

Published on August 17, 2011 1:05 pm PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Ron Jackson


Click for large image of tracking map

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — A disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic is moving westward and has promising features to develop into something of concern down the line.

Latest satellite images show a very broad circulation in the area. This area must be watched as the broad area has both stacked surface and mid/upper level features.

Thunderstorms should continue to form around the center of it as it moves toward the Lee and Windward Islands and strength as it does.

This was a very potent wave and was already spinning when leaving Africa so chances for a Hurricane are high with it.

As for tracking, usually I do tracking maps for these larger systems and this one looks like a United States threat, likely the Southeastern Coast.

Right now I have the tracking map (view it here) moving westward and just South (but impacting) Puerto Rico. It then moves across the Dominican Republic and enters the warm waters of the Bahamas.

to read more, go to:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-08_17_2011_tropicalwave.html

7 at One Blow

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Record broken for seven tropical storms in a row without hurricane status

Published on August 16, 2011 4:00 am PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller


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(TheWeatherSpace.com) — In a very rare update here at TheWeatherSpace.com, a record has been broken in the Atlantic Ocean.

Seven tropical systems have been named so far and not one of them became our first Hurricane. Where are the Hurricanes and what is happening?

Invest 93 is moving westward and I do think this is going to hit Mexico but not strengthen into much of anything. In fact, we are not seeing much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity with the wave anymore

to read more, go to:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-08_16_2011_tropicalrecord.html

July Heat, Gert, New Tropical Storm Activity

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Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog

 

Globe’s 7th wamest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

July 2011 was the globe’s 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

to read the rest of Dr. Jeff Masters’ Blog, get the latest on Gert and brewing tropical distrubacnes, go to:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1883

Update on Storm Activity in the Tropics

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Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:25 PM GMT on August 14, 2011 +3
The latest in our unusual number of weak tropical cyclones this season, Tropical Depression Seven, has formed to the southeast of Bermuda. Unless you live in Bermuda, TD 7 is not going to be a concern. Radar out of Bermuda shows an area of rain on the northern side of TD 7 beginning to approach the island, and rain from the storm will likely affect the island tonight and on Monday. TD 7 is not well-organized, and has only limited heavy thunderstorms, as seen on visible satellite images. While wind shear is a low 5 – 10 knots, dry air surrounds TD 7, and is keeping the storm from intensifying. None of the computer models foresee that TD 7 will ever become more than a weak tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

92L
TD 7 isn’t the only system Bermuda needs to watch, Invest 92L is a day behind it, and will follow a path very similar to TD 7’s. The disturbance will pass close to Bermuda on Tuesday, bringing the island a second round of tropical rains. However, Invest 92L is very disorganized, as seen on recent visible satellite loops. Dry air and close proximity to TD 7 will likely keep 92L from showing significant development over the next two days, with NHC giving the system just a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbance midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa we’ve been tracking over the past few days, Invest 93L, has fallen apart and is no longer a threat to develop. This system will need to be watched once it enters the Caribbean later this week, though. None of the reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone formation predict development of this system or any new disturbances over the coming week.

Jeff Masters

Tropical System Approaching

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Tropical system heading westward toward the Leeward Islands this next week

Published on August 13, 2011 6:40 am PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller


Click for tracking map for article

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — A wide tropical wave, or Invest 93, is moving across the Central Atlantic will head westward toward the Leeward Islands by the middle of next week.

As of now the system looks favorable for additional development over the next several days and it should be a slow developing system at that.

The system is riding pretty far South which would naturally put it South of Puerto Rico but since it is so far away my forecast “cone of uncertainty” will remain wide, covering Puerto Rico.

The ridge will migrate westward with the system which is leading me to believe this system will actually keep moving due west toward the Leeward/Windward Islands.

Should this forecast be correct we may have a threat into the Gulf Of Mexico within a week and all eyes should remain on this system.

The system is not a threat at the time to the United States being how far away it is and we have plenty of time to forecast the track. Now it is not to say that down the line it will not be a dangerous storm because it very well could be.

to read more, go to:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-08_13_2011_leeward.html

Potential Tropical Storm Systems Developing

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Tropical threats loom starting with Invest 92L and areas east of it

Published on August 11, 2011 12:00 am PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller


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(TheWeatherSpace.com) — The tropics off Cape Verde are heating up and throwing disturbances out into the Eastern Atlantic and one of them looks very healthy.

There are two outlined by NHC, the furthest west one with a better chance of development and another one just coming off Africa with a lesser chance.

However, I would like to keep an eye on the one further east due to the stacked upper level features it has. Invest 92L is detached from the upper level system or easterly wave near it while the one without an invest assigned to it has a circulation developing from the surface to 25,000 feet which is good for a healthy tropical wave.

Knowing where these will go at the time is going to be tough so will wait a day or two, however both systems will track westward through the Atlantic over the next week.

for more, go to:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-08_11_2011_tropics.html

NOAA Downgrades Predicted Number of Tropical Storms This Season

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NOAA still sees big potential for hurricanes

BY JENNIFER KAY

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

PENSACOLA, Fla. — Record high ocean temperatures and the development of a climate phenomenon known as LaNiña will keep the Atlantic hurricane season on track to be the busiest since 2005, government forecasters said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly lowered the outlook it released in May, but an above-normal season is still expected, said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in Washington.

The updated forecast calls for 14 to 20 named tropical storms, down from a range of 14 to 23.

The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the peak period for hurricanes runs from August through October.

Eight to 12 storms could become hurricanes, and four to six of those hurricanes could become major storms, with winds of 111 mph or more, forecasters said.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season, and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane-prone areas to be prepared,” NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement.

During active storm seasons, multiple hurricane strikes are much

Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/06/2346383/noaa-still-sees-big-potential.html#ixzz1UANVqUtJ

Tropical Impulse Building

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Tropical impulse will develop at the end of the month, threatening the Caribbean to the USA

Published on July 13, 2011 12:45 pm PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Ron Jackson


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(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Tropical season has been quiet, however it normally is during July. We begin to see the developments around August and one seems to be ready to.

As of now the Atlantic Ocean is quite, but that will change during the last week of July. Thunderstorms are erupting across the Saharan Desert and these will shoot impulses out of Cape Verde, westward into the Atlantic.

One such impulse looks impressive on satellite over Africa now and will eject out of Africa on July 24th. This will be the system to watch for the Caribbean and the United States as the track is common for a classic Cape Verde season impact next month.

 

to read more, go to:    http://theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-07_13_2011_tropical.html