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GEOMAGNETIC OUTLOOK: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% to 45% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on March 28-29 in response to an incoming solar wind stream. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
Tag Archives: solar activity
Sunspot AR 1429 Continues to Erupt
INCREDIBLE SUNSPOT AR1429: Big sunspot AR1429, the source of so many strong flares and geomagnetic storms earler this month, is still erupting. The active region produced a significant coronal mass ejection on March 24th at 00:39 UT. Because of the sunspot’s location on the far side of the sun, this particular CME will not hit Earth. An animated forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab shows the trajectory of the expanding cloud:
The leading edge of the CME is espected to arrive at the STEREO-B spacecraft on March 25th at 13:08 UT (+/- 7 hours). None of the inner panets will be affected.
Since March began, sunspot AR1429 has propelled CMEs into every corner of the solar system, stirring up stormy space weather around every planet and spacecraft. If the sunspot remains active for another week or so, it will turn back toward Earth for a new round of geoeffective eruptions.
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Solar Storm Heated Up the Atmosphere
Solar Storm Dumps Gigawatts into Earth’s Upper Atmosphere
| Play ScienceCast Video |
March 22, 2012: A recent flurry of eruptions on the sun did more than spark pretty auroras around the poles. NASA-funded researchers say the solar storms of March 8th through 10th dumped enough energy in Earth’s upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years.
“This was the biggest dose of heat we’ve received from a solar storm since 2005,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley Research Center. “It was a big event, and shows how solar activity can directly affect our planet.”
Earth’s atmosphere lights up at infrared wavelengths during the solar storms of March 8-10, 2010. A ScienceCast video explains the physics of this phenomenon. Play it!
Mlynczak is the associate principal investigator for the SABER instrument onboard NASA’s TIMED satellite. SABER monitors infrared emissions from Earth’s upper atmosphere, in particular from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a key role in the energy balance of air hundreds of km above our planet’s surface.
“Carbon dioxide and nitric oxide are natural thermostats,” explains James Russell of Hampton University, SABER’s principal investigator. “When the upper atmosphere (or ‘thermosphere’) heats up, these molecules try as hard as they can to shed that heat back into space.”
That’s what happened on March 8th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) propelled in our direction by an X5-class solar flare hit Earth’s magnetic field. (On the “Richter Scale of Solar Flares,” X-class flares are the most powerful kind.) Energetic particles rained down on the upper atmosphere, depositing their energy where they hit. The action produced spectacular auroras around the poles and significant1 upper atmospheric heating all around the globe.
“The thermosphere lit up like a Christmas tree,” says Russell. “It began to glow intensely at infrared wavelengths as the thermostat effect kicked in.”
For the three day period, March 8th through 10th, the thermosphere absorbed 26 billion kWh of energy. Infrared radiation from CO2 and NO, the two most efficient coolants in the thermosphere, re-radiated 95% of that total back into space.
A surge of infrared radiation from nitric oxide molecules on March 8-10, 2012, signals the biggest upper-atmospheric heating event in seven years. Credit: SABER/TIMED. See also the CO2 data.
In human terms, this is a lot of energy. According to the New York City mayor’s office, an average NY household consumes just under 4700 kWh annually. This means the geomagnetic storm dumped enough energy into the atmosphere to power every home in the Big Apple for two years.
“Unfortunately, there’s no practical way to harness this kind of energy,” says Mlynczak. “It’s so diffuse and out of reach high above Earth’s surface. Plus, the majority of it has been sent back into space by the action of CO2 and NO.”
During the heating impulse, the thermosphere puffed up like a marshmallow held over a campfire, temporarily increasing the drag on low-orbiting satellites. This is both good and bad. On the one hand, extra drag helps clear space junk out of Earth orbit. On the other hand, it decreases the lifetime of useful satellites by bringing them closer to the day of re-entry.
The storm is over now, but Russell and Mlynczak expect more to come.
“We’re just emerging from a deep solar minimum,” says Russell. “The solar cycle is gaining strength with a maximum expected in 2013.”
More sunspots flinging more CMEs toward Earth adds up to more opportunities for SABER to study the heating effect of solar storms.
“This is a new frontier in the sun-Earth connection,” says Mlynczak, and the data we’re collecting are unprecedented.”
from: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22mar_saber/
CME on Farside of Sun
FARSIDE CME: A spectacular CME rocketed away from the sun’s northwestern limb during the early hours of March 18th: movie. The probable source was old sunspot AR1429, still active as it transits the far side of the sun. Earth will not be affected by the cloud.
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Amazing & Non-Stop Auroras
BROKEN RECORD? The recent sustained activity of sunspot AR1429 has kept the Arctic Circle alight with auroras for almost two weeks. “I have spent many thousands of hours watching and photographing the Northern Lights,” says aurora tour guide Chad Blakely of Abisko Sweden, “and I can honestly say that I have never seen the auroras this strong for so many days in a row.” In a movie he made last night, March 12th, a green tornado of light swirls across Venus and Jupiter:
“We were all absolutely stunned by the natural beauty of this display,” says Blakeley. “I know I sound like a broken record, but sunspot 1429 just will not stop!”
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Incoming CME 3/15
STRONG FLARE, INCOMING CME: Departing sunspot AR1429 unleashed another strong flare on March 13th, an M7-class eruption that peaked around 1741 UT. Although the sunspot is no longer directly facing Earth, the blast will affect our planet. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say a CME is en route to Earth, and its impact on March 15th at 06:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) could trigger minor to moderate geomagnetic storms
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Solar WHAM on Its Way
WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. During the flare, New Mexico amateur astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of radio bursts at 21 and 28 MHz:
Dynamic spectrum courtesy Wes Greenman, Alachua County, Florida
The roaring sounds you just heard are caused by shock waves plowing through the sun’s atmosphere in the aftermath of the explosion. “There is incredible complexity in the waveforms,” notes Ashcraft. “This is a recording of one of the most turbulent events in all of Nature!”
In addition, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud will hit our planet’s magnetosphere on March 12th at 1803 UT (+/- 7 hr), possibly sparking a new round of geomagnetic storms.
After passing Earth, the CME will also hit the Mars Science Lab (MSL) spacecraft on March 13th followed by Mars itself on March 14th. Mars rover Curiosity onboard MSL might get some interesting readings as the cloud passes by.
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Incoming Solar Flare
WEEKEND SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR1429 is still erupting this weekend. On Saturday, March 10th, it produced a powerful M8-class flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded a series of shortwave bursts emanating from the blast site: audio. Also, the explosion propelled yet another CME toward Earth: forecast track. The cloud is expected to hit our planet’s magnetosphere on March 12th around 1800 UT. A CME from an earlier explosion will arrive much sooner, however.
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Continuing Solar Storms
Solar storms causing few problems on Earth
Geomagnetic and solar radiation storms hitting Earth after Tuesday’s solar flares may not be as big as advertised, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.
Together, such storms can affect GPS systems, other satellite systems and power grids, but none of these problems has been reported, even as the leading edge of the sun’s coronal mass ejections from Tuesday hit Earth on Thursday morning, scientists said.
The geomagnetic storm has reached only G1 intensity on a scale from G1 (weak) to G5 (extreme), and the solar radiation storm is an S3 (strong) on a similar 1-to-5 scale, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said. Earlier, NOAA had predicted a G3/S4 event.
Still, the solar radiation storm has prompted some airlines to divert planes from routes near the north pole, where radio communications may be affected and passengers at high altitudes may be at a higher than normal radiation risk.
“Today we are using alternate routes for seven westbound flights to Asia. We will monitor possible solar impact to the operation in making decisions for tomorrow and future dates,” Delta Air Lines spokesman Anthony Black said.
American Airlines put three high-polar flights – from the U.S. to Japan and China– on lower-altitude routes on Thursday, spokesman Ed Martelle said. And United Airlines rerouted four flights to Asia, according to United spokesman Mike Trevino.
The geomagnetic storm still could give earthlings quite a show Thursday night. The storm is expected to produce auroras, or northern lights, that may be visible as far south as the northern United States, said Physicist Joseph Kunches with the Space Weather Prediction Center.
Tuesday’s solar eruptions included two solar flares – intense bursts of radiation from the sun – and two coronal mass ejections, which are releases of gas and magnetic fields from the outer sun. The coronal mass ejections reached Earth on Thursday.
Kunches likened the challenge of forecasting the strength of the storms to hitting a major league pitcher’s fastball.
“Like a hitter, we try (to) figure out if the pitch is coming down the middle of the plate or is low and outside,” Kunches said. “The problem is, the pitch comes from the sun from 93 million miles away.”
Forecasters also try to figure out which way the particles ejected from the sun are oriented, which has major implications on how strong the event will be.
“Like a curveball, the orientation can change. We didn’t see the spin with this event,” Kunches said.
He added that the event is not over, and the effect of the solar radiation could increase if it becomes better aligned later Thursday. By Friday morning, the solar storm should be diminishing.
The sunspot that produced the storms, however, still will be facing Earth through the weekend, and further emissions could bring new storms to the planet.
X5 Class Solar Eruption
MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare. This one is the strongest yet, an X5-class eruption on March 7th at 00:28 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash:
This eruption hurled a bright CME into space, shown here in a movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. Although the CME is not squarely Earth-directed, it appears direct enough to deliver a glancing blow to our planet’s magnetic field on March 8-9. This would add to the magnetic unrest already underway at high latitudes.
The flare also accelerated energetic protons toward Earth, triggering an S3-class solar radiation storm, in progress. Such a storm is mainly a nuisance to satellites, causing occasional reboots of onboard computers and adding noise to imaging systems.
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