Tag Archives: solar activity

Possible X-Class Flare for the 4th

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4TH OF JULY FIREWORKS: Chances of an X-flare today are increasing as sunspot AR1515 develops a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for the most powerful explosions. The sunspot’s magnetic canopy is crackling with almost-X class flares, the strongest so far being an M5-flare at 09:54 UT. Each “crackle” releases more energy than a billion atomic bombs, so these are 4th of July fireworks indeed.

The sunspot itself is huge, stretching more than 100,000 km (8 Earth-diameters) from end to end. This movie from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the behemoth growing and turning toward Earth over the past five days:

Another picture that dramatically illustrates the size of AR1515 is this 4th of July sunrise shot from Stefano De Rosa of Turin, Italy.

If any major eruptions do occur today, they will certainly be Earth-directed. The sunspot is directly facing our planet, so it is in position to cause radio blackouts, sudden ionospheric disturbances, and geomagnetic storms.

fr/spaceweather.com

Active Sunspot

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ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1513 is crackling with impulsive M-class solar flares. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash from one of them at 0920 UT on June 29th:

This M2-class flare illuminated Earth’s upper atmosphere with a pulse of X-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation. Waves of ionization rippled over Europe, altering the propagation of low-frequency radio signals around the continent. Using a receiver tuned to 60 kHz, Rob Stammes detected the sudden ionospheric disturbance over Norway. His antennas also picked up radio waves from the flare itself at 26 MHz and 56 MHz.

More ionization waves and solar radio bursts are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of continued M-flares during the next 24 hours.

fr/spaceweather.com

Sunspot AR1504 Possible X-Flares

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CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1504 has a complex ‘beta-gamma’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares–and the huge sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. Amateur astronomer Eric von der Heyden photographed the behemoth on June 16th from his backyard observatory in Mühltal-Traisa, Germany:

Each of the dark cores in the image is about twice the size of Earth. The sheer size of the complex makes it an easy target for backyard solar telescopes.

NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares from AR1504 during the next 24 hours

from:spaceweather.com

Solar Flares

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CHANCE OF FLARES: Big sunspot AR1504 has developed a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 65% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

fr/spaceweather.com

More Incoming CME’s

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INCOMING CMES: On June 14th, for the second day in a row, sunspot AR1504 erupted and hurled a CME toward Earth. The fast-moving (1360 km/s) cloud is expected to sweep up a previous CME and deliver a combined blow to Earth’s magnetic field on June 16th around 10:16 UT. This animation shows the likely progression of the approaching storm:

According to the forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CMEs will also hit Venus on June 15th and Mars on June 19th. Because Venus and Mars do not have global magnetic fields to protect them, both of those planets will probably lose tiny amounts of atmosphere when the CMEs strike.

Here on Earth, the impact is likely to trigger a geomagnetic storm around the poles. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on June 16th.

fr/spaceweather.com

CME’s Incoming

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INCOMING CMES: On June 14th, for the second day in a row, sunspot AR1504 erupted and hurled a CME toward Earth. The fast-moving (1360 km/s) cloud is expected to sweep up a previous CME and deliver a combined blow to Earth’s magnetic field on June 16th around 10:16 UT. This animation shows the likely progression of the approaching storm:

According to the forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CMEs will also hit Venus on June 15th and Mars on June 19th. Because Venus and Mars do not have global magnetic fields to protect them, both of those planets will probably lose tiny amounts of atmosphere when the CMEs strike.

Here on Earth, the impact is likely to trigger a geomagnetic storm around the poles. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on June 16th.

from:   spaceweather.com

More Solar Flares

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M-FLARES: New sunspot AR1504 is crackling with impulsive M-class solar flares, including two on June 9th (1132 UT and 1650 UT) and one on June 10th (0645 UT). So far none of the blasts have been Earth directed.

NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the extreme UV flash from an M2-class flare this morning:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of more M-flares today. Geoeffective eruptions are possible in the days ahead as AR1504 turns toward Earth.

from: spaceweather.com