Table 48a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period
from October 26-November 9* 2011 (UTC)
|
REGIONS |
Forecast |
Observed
|
Accuracy compared to mid range (%) |
Observed |
| Alaska USA Southern Region within ≈600 km of a newcenter at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage. |
M3.3-M5.3 expected about Oct 28+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA New zone within ≈525 km radius ofTofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874 |
M2.6-M4.6 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| California –Oregon USABorder Region New zone Coast & Off Coast within ≈550 km of a center at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95 160 km west of Orick, CA |
M3.1-M5.1 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| California 1. New zone‘Northern and Central CA’ (& Western Nevada) within ≈450 km radius ofRedwood Valley, CAat Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region. **see table footnote |
M2.7-M4.7 expected about Nov 3+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| California 2. Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions New zone Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978 **see table footnote |
M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| New Madrid Region Central USA New zone Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri, Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma |
M2.0-M4.0 expected about Nov 4+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Hawaii USA Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5 on the Island of Hawaii |
M2.4-M4.4 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Caribbean 1. Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Region within ≈225 km of Fajardo, Puerto Rico, at Lat 18.326 & Lon -65.652, |
M2.6-M4.6 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Caribbean 2. Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54 & Lon -72.334 |
M3.4-M5.4 expected about Nov 1st+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Bucharest Romania Region New zone, Europe within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria. |
M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 3+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Chile 1. Northern Region within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29 (zone revised 3rd July 2011) |
M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 5+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Chile 2.Central Region within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359 |
M4.1-M6.1 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| China* Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264 *Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month (FM + NM periods). More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China |
No forecast | |||
| Colombia Region within 600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon -77.484, on the coast Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela |
M3.6-M5.6 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Fiji-Tonga Region within ≈500 km of a center point at Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4 |
M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 5+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Greece New zone within 300 km of a center point at ITEA, Greece (Lat 38.435 & Lon 22.422) |
M3.3-M5.3 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Guatemala Coastal Region within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador. |
M3.3-M5.3 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| El Salvador -Costa Rica Region includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua (Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178) Zone revised 19th April. |
M4.2-M6.2 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Indonesia 1.Sumatra Northern Region within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67 |
M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 5+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Indonesia 2.Sumatra Southern Region within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs) |
M4.3-M6.3 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Indonesia 3.Sunda StraitSouthern Sumatra to Java Region includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java, within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762 |
M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Italy Region within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88 (now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea) |
M3.1-M5.1 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Japan 1. Hokkaido Region & Northernmost Honshu Region within ≈500 km from Yubetsu, Hokkaido Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62 **see table footnote |
M4.6-M6.6 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Japan 2. Honshu – Northern Region within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369**see table footnote |
M4.1-M6.1 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Japan 3.Honshu – Southern Region within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040**see table footnote |
M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 3+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
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| Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China) New zone within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286 |
M4.7-M6.7 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Mexico Southern Region within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671 |
M4.0-M6.0 expected about Oct 31+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| New Britain Region, PNG within 400 km of a center at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140 |
M4.1-M6.1 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
|
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| New Zealand “Northern Region” within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07, including Nelson region and North tip of South Island **see table footnote |
M3.9-M5.9 expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| New Zealand Southern Region within 500 km from Christchurch, South Island Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622 **see table footnote |
M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| New Zealand Lower South Island New zone within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66 **see table footnote |
M3.9-M5.9 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Pakistan Islamabad Regionwithin ≈425 km of Islamabad, Pakistan (Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07) (includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan) |
M3.8-M5.8 expected about Nov 3+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Peru Region North to South within ≈1000 km of LIMA center, Lat -12.045 and Lon -77.028 |
M3.7-M5.7 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Philippines Region Philippines Region within ≈600 km of a center point at LABO, Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673 |
M4.0-M6.0 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Samoa/Tonga within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617 |
M4.3-M6.3 expected about Oct 31+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Solomon Is’- Bougainville Region within ≈600 km of center at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66 |
M4.5-M6.5 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Spain and Portugal – Southern Regions Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567 |
M2.6-M4.6 expected about Oct 30+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Taiwan Region within 225 km of M7.7 center (1999) at Lat 23.77 and Lon 120.98 |
M3.5-M5.5 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region
includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad |
M3.8-M5.8 expected about Oct 29+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Turkey within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976 (region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas) |
M2.8-M4.8 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |
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| Vanuatu New zone within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu |
M4.7-M6.7 expected about Nov 6+/-3 days (posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) |