New Tropical Wave

Posted on August 17, 2011 by marcia

Potent Atlantic tropical wave could be big trouble for the United States

Published on August 17, 2011 1:05 pm PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Ron Jackson

Click for large image of tracking map

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — A disturbance in the middle of the Atlantic is moving westward and has promising features to develop into something of concern down the line.

Latest satellite images show a very broad circulation in the area. This area must be watched as the broad area has both stacked surface and mid/upper level features.

Thunderstorms should continue to form around the center of it as it moves toward the Lee and Windward Islands and strength as it does.

This was a very potent wave and was already spinning when leaving Africa so chances for a Hurricane are high with it.

As for tracking, usually I do tracking maps for these larger systems and this one looks like a United States threat, likely the Southeastern Coast.

Right now I have the tracking map (view it here) moving westward and just South (but impacting) Puerto Rico. It then moves across the Dominican Republic and enters the warm waters of the Bahamas.

NOAA Downgrades Predicted Number of Tropical Storms This Season

Posted on August 5, 2011 by marcia

NOAA still sees big potential for hurricanes

BY JENNIFER KAY

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

PENSACOLA, Fla. — Record high ocean temperatures and the development of a climate phenomenon known as LaNiña will keep the Atlantic hurricane season on track to be the busiest since 2005, government forecasters said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly lowered the outlook it released in May, but an above-normal season is still expected, said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in Washington.

The updated forecast calls for 14 to 20 named tropical storms, down from a range of 14 to 23.

The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the peak period for hurricanes runs from August through October.

Eight to 12 storms could become hurricanes, and four to six of those hurricanes could become major storms, with winds of 111 mph or more, forecasters said.

“August heralds the start of the most active phase of the Atlantic hurricane season, and with the meteorological factors in place, now is the time for everyone living in hurricane-prone areas to be prepared,” NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco said in a statement.

During active storm seasons, multiple hurricane strikes are much

More on Emily

Posted on August 1, 2011 by marcia

Martin: What will be Emily is what I warned almost three weeks ago

Published on August 1, 2011 12:20 am PT
– By Dave Tole – Writer
– Article Editor and Approved – Ron Jackson

Click to view long range track

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — A tropical wave is moving westward toward the Puerto Rico areas this week which could be the next named system, Emily.

TWS Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin warned the Caribbean and interests in Florida of a Cape Verde wave he saw over Africa on July 13th, which would eject out of Africa on the 24th and finally into the Caribbean around this time, the first week of August. (View that story here)

“What will be Emily is what I warned almost three weeks ago,” said Martin. “When I make a forecast that far out I tend to forget I did. Many do because this was three weeks ago. This system should impact Puerto Rico and move through Haiti, finally heading into the Bahamas by Friday and curving away from the USA just east of Florida.”

Tropical Storm Heads Towards Texas

Posted on July 27, 2011 by marcia

Caribbean system nears tropical storm strength, now aimed toward Texas coast

The tropical disturbance we’ve been tracking continues to develop, and likely will become Tropical Storm Don. The National Hurricane Center gives the tropical wave an 80 percent chance of blossoming into a tropical depression or storm during the next two days.

Look for it to be upgraded this afternoon when an aircraft reconnaissance plane investigates the disturbance.

In the large satellite image below the disturbance can be seen moving between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba this morning.

Satellite image as of 3:30 a.m. (NexSat, NRL/JPSS)

This is significant because it will no longer interact so much with the Yucatan Peninsula and accordingly will have more of an opportunity to strengthen over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.

Perhaps the biggest news is that the models have shifted significantly northward, now bringing the system toward Texas. Here’s a look at the models from this morning.

Tropical Impulse Building

Posted on July 13, 2011 by marcia

Tropical impulse will develop at the end of the month, threatening the Caribbean to the USA

Published on July 13, 2011 12:45 pm PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Ron Jackson

No larger image

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Tropical season has been quiet, however it normally is during July. We begin to see the developments around August and one seems to be ready to.

As of now the Atlantic Ocean is quite, but that will change during the last week of July. Thunderstorms are erupting across the Saharan Desert and these will shoot impulses out of Cape Verde, westward into the Atlantic.

One such impulse looks impressive on satellite over Africa now and will eject out of Africa on July 24th. This will be the system to watch for the Caribbean and the United States as the track is common for a classic Cape Verde season impact next month.

Hurricane Season Begins

Posted on June 6, 2011 by marcia

Two systems battle for the first name of the Hurricane Season, Adrian developing fast

Published on June 6, 2011 12:40 am PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller

Click for larger image

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Both basins are battling it out for the first named system of the year, which one will it be?

Invest 91e is in the most favored location, west of Mexico. This system is in perfect position for rapid development over the next 48 hours and I would not be surprised to see it become a named system this week. The system will be named Adrian. Adrian would move to the northwest.

The system in the Caribbean Sea, Invest94l, has been affecting Jamaica, and the other islands surrounding it, with flooding rains as it just floats out there not moving much at all.

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