Weekend Forecast 9/23-26

from:    -Matt Baranowski
-9/22/11 (Thursday)
-8:00pm CDT

http://centralstorm.wordpress.com/

 

The end of the week is almost here. Time for everyone to kick back and relax. This may be, depending on where you live, the last warm weekend of the year as October is knocking on the doorstep. We have quite a difference in areas of warm temperatures, rainy temperatures, chilly temperatures and normal temperatures all over the Nation. This forecast, which I am going to explain below, will go through Monday Spetember 26, 2011. 

Everyone in the west and in the Rockies region is probably going to jump up and down seeing this graphic. Yet others will want to rip it up in pieces. Here’s the situation:
As you can see by the black/white striped going from South Dakota through Missouri up to Ohio and up in the North East fashion. This is the jet stream forecast for the next few days. Now this will fluxuate back and forth a bit but that would be the ‘centered’ point on where that Jet Stream will lay out. Now with that Jet stream forecast brings Major differences in temperatures . With that stream like that, you have a build or a rise in the Stream to the North over Montana and South Dakota. This Jet stream comes from the Pacific Ocean so this would be called the Pacific Jet in MET Terms. Now whats going to occur is that high pressure that is currently their isn’t going to move much. This is going to keep this jet stream at its current place or move slowly throughout days. With that also we have the High Pressure that is forecast to build into the Midwest locations by Friday. With that will bring Cool Air from Canada southward. That means some locations won’t get out of the 50′s in the Northern Great Lakes. Now remember that Low Pressure that I forecast to impact the North East by Thursday days ago… Well it had slowed a bit and timing was just a bit off. So it now looks as North Eastern States will see the rainy conditions all the way through Monday and May be won’t stop till Tuesday. Flooding is a potential but widespread 6 inches like a first Isolated event is not a huge bet. Most areas will see 2-4 inches in that green area. As for the south, pop up storms will likely be in company Friday and Saturday and limit to a very Isolated Event come Saturday Night. Normal temperatures in the 80′s are in the forecast. Quick jump back to the Midwest and Great lakes… Not only will you see rainy off and on conditions but it will be chilly too. So please, you can catch a cold from this weather as conditions are expected to go back to the 80′s by Wednesday.

Forecast by Color:
-Orange Area: Warm Temperature. Humid farther south you get but not un controllable humid. Due to the high, Severe weather and rain in general is not likely. Temperatures in the 80′s in the north and middle areas and 90′s are a potential down south.

-Blue: A chilly, overcast and miserable weekend as that low pressure spins and you get the backside shower activity. Won’t be a wash out but it definitively will be cool with temps in the 50′s and 60′s.

-White: Normal Temperatures for this time of year. Not crazily hot with temperatures in the 80′s. Shower or a storm is a potential on Friday and Saturday but could also occur on Monday.

-Green: Like the Great Lakes Region, A miserable weekend. Some rains that fall could “train” and cause flooding so stay tuned and turn around don’t drown. Temperatures also chilly in the mid to upper 60′s. Most areas will see 1-4 inch rains depending on location.

Hope Everyone has a great weekend! Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts! (Excuse my mistake in the word “Overcast” in the graphic. Stay tuned to Storm Central for the latest on Ophelia. We will have the latest breaking news if anything changes.

-Rate by Stars!

Typhoon & Tropical Storm Update fr/Dr. Masters

Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2011 +9
Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20″) at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86″) at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke’s heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50″) toHirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2″/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we’ve been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm’s heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 – 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don’t have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia’s winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite imagesshow dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm’s core, interfering with development.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm’s heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 – 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 – 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia’s weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.

Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia’s formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season’s 15th storm. Only20051936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year’s fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.

Jeff Masters

September 18-24

Overall Color for the Week:   Light Pink

Ah, this week.  Everything is in such flux.  This is not a good time for relying upon…. whatever.  The Trickster is about and he is spinning his tricks everywhere.  In relationships, in job situations, in promises, in trusts, … in everything.  Let it go.  This is a time in which you must let it go or you will find your self; spiraling downward into expectations and old patterns which cannot help but be thwarted now.  This is a week for a sense of humor, a sense of optimism, and a super strong sense of self.  You have all the tools and strength you need.  What you are lacking is your own confidence in WHO you are.  Spend some time within.  Take some time to know what you truly are and what that means in what you want and your expectations.  This is an important time, and this is an important exercise.  Choices now are what we will be manifesting and discovering for the next eighteen months. Just an additional note, this is a very important time to listen to your intuition, pay attention to your hunches.  You can learn a great deal about what lies just around the corner. Oh, and emotions, emotions, emotions.  Let them flow. Continue reading

fr/Martin Thoughts on Winter Forecast

 

Interesting take on the whole question of long term forecasting, particularly at this time when so much is changing, the abnormal has become normal, and anomalies are routine.

2011-2012 Winter Forecast from TheWeatherSpace.com released

Published on September 8, 2011 3:35 am PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller


Click for larger image

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Winter forecasting is probably the most useless forecasting one can do and I’ll give you the reason why.

Every year hundreds of weather forecasters shoot out forecasts for snow in the Northeast. Why? Snow happens all the time during the Winter!

The truth of the matter is that TheWeatherSpace.com believes producing such forecasts are useless. So the 2011-2012 forecast for winter is sometimes cold, sometimes warm, sometimes snowy, sometimes icy, sometimes windy, sometimes dry, sometimes rainy, and sometimes snowy.

Winter forecasts are as useless as long range hurricane forecasts. We just do not need them. What people really care about is the accuracy in the next three to five days, that is it.

Sure, farmers rely on long range forecasts but no one is 100% accurate in a winter forecast. There are times when people forecast Southern California in a La Nina to have dry and warm conditions and yet Los Angeles gets blasted by cold air, thunderstorms, low elevation snow, and above average precipitation.

Winter season cannot be forecast and the best thing we can do is take what comes at us and warn for what we see. Sometimes it will snow, other times it will not. The winter seasons have troughs and ridges which change each week to a different scenario.

This is not meant to be a joke to you from TheWeatherSpace.com, but a real thing to think about. Do we need long range forecasts when it changes each week? In my eyes we do not so let us take and forecast what is in reality, three, five, seven, and ten days down the line
.

fr/http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-09_08_2011_longrange.html/

More on Lee and Katia

Tropical Storm Lee moving ashore; Katia continues northwest
Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:53 PM GMT on September 03, 2011 +6
Tropical Storm Lee is marching steadily northwards towards landfall in Louisiana, and continues to slowly intensify. The storm’s central pressure is now down to 993 mb, as measured by an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft at 7am CDT. However, the center of Lee is now very close to the coast, and the storm doesn’t have much time to intensify further before the center moves over land. The main impact from the storm on the coast thus far has been heavy rains. At New Orleans Lakefront Airport, 5.88″ inches of rain had fallen from Lee as of 8 am CDT this morning. Top winds were 35 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Though Lee’s top winds are rated as being 60 mph, it is difficult to find any land stations that have reported sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph or greater. One station that has is at the tip of the Mississippi River Delta, where Southwest Pass measured sustained winds of 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 7:03 am CDT. Upper-level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 10 – 20 knots of wind shear over Lee, keeping the storm’s heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm. Latest satelllite loops show Lee is becoming increasingly organized.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Lee from the New Orleans radar. Lee has dumped a large region of 4 – 8 inches so far (orange colors.)


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday Sep 8, 2011. Lee is expected to bring a large swath of 4+ inches of rain all the way to New England. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Lee
Lee’s large size, ill-formed circulation center, and the presence of dry air on its west side due to an upper-level trough of low pressure make Lee look a lot like a subtropical storm on satellite imagery, with a broad center and the majority of the heavy thunderstorms in a broad band well removed from the center. Subtropical storms can undergo only relatively modest rates of intensification, and Lee is unlikely to become a hurricane. Also tending to slow intensification will be the fact that much of its circulation is over land. Damages from Lee are likely to be less than $100 – $200 million, with the greatest threats being fresh water flooding from heavy rains. Given that much of the region Lee will traverse over the next few days is under moderate to severe drought, the storm’s rains may cause more economic benefit than damage. Since Texas is on the dry side of the storm, that state will see very little rainfall from Lee, except very close to the border with Louisiana. The rains from Lee appear to have mostly ended across extreme southern Louisiana, so the feared 10 – 15 inches of rain does not look like it will materialize there. One possible concern for Lee’s rains will be the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where recovery efforts from the devastating flooding due to Hurricane Irene may be hampered by the additional 2 – 4 inches that may fall from Lee’s remnants by the middle of the week.Tornadoes from Lee are potential hazard today, as NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the Northern Gulf Coast in their “slight risk” area for severe weather. A tornado watch is posted for the region, but no tornadoes have been reported as of 8 am CDT.

Lee is the 12th named storm this year, and came eight days before the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season. Climatologically, September 10 marks the half-way point. A typical hurricane season has just 10 – 11 named storms, so we’ve already had more than a whole season’s worth of storms before reaching the half-way point. At this rate, 2011 will see 24 – 26 named storms, making it the 2nd busiest season on record, behind 2005. Lee’s formation date of September 2 puts 2011 in 5th place for earliest date of arrival of the season’s 12th storm. Only 200519951936, and 1933 had an earlier 12th storm.

Hurricane Katia 
The latest set of model runs show very little change in the outlook for Hurricane Katia. Katia will continue its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean, and will not pose a danger to any land areas over the next five days. Katia is still struggling with dry air and wind shear that has risen to a high 20 – 25 knots. Latest satellite loops show a lopsided hurricane that is suffering from the impacts of dry air and wind shear on its southwest side.

August 28-September 3

Overall Color for the Week:    Lavender Pink

Take time this week to allow good things into your life.  You think you do that, but in so many cases what you are doing is trying to manipulate and cause things to be as you wish them to be.  That is too difficult.  Alowing involves letting go and letting in.  Try it.  There may be some interesting results.  Also, the energies of the Feminine will be particualrly strong this week as time and purpose comntinue to weave their new patterns. Meanings will begin to change, along with personal tastes and preferences.  These things are meant to delight you, to let you see the variety out there that you might have missed as you limited your focus and tended to concentrate on things at hand. At this time, you are opening to new things, new people, new ideas, etc. Communities are forming.  You can be pleasantly surprised as you recognize in strangers a kindred spirit and a feeling of comradeship. Little by little you are becoming aware of the growing importance of things, and mostly things spiritual or so-called woo-woo, that you knew were there but tended to see as sport and not serious.  Synchronicity is in the air, so that when something strikes you as odd, it can be followed by a sign, an event, a comment, that will make you realize its importance.  Be aware, but know that at this time and in this energy you will be reminded more than once if there  is something you are meant to see.

On the larger scale, the week will start out pretty much on an even keel,relatively uneventful, but all this will begin to shift as we move into September, with the first three days being particularly difficult. There will be unexpected and unprecedented Earth and climate events.  A lot of old preconceptions can be shaken up, leaving experts from different areas in conflict as to what this all means.  Politically there will be tosses and turns throughout the world.  There will be continued silliness as candidates here vie for something new to day.  Then there is a feeling of come kind of large event in the Middle East.  Egypt will again make the news.  There is some energy in the Atlantic area that will be making itself felt through all four of the elements.  Things globally can get quite touchy.  The Sun will be acting oddly, and again, back up your electronics and have a few flashlights, etc. on hand.  THere can be pwoer outages, some unexplained.  More information will be coming out about the tectonic structure of the Earth, and there can be some movement in the center of the country.  Something is stirring in Tibet.  There are energetic blips in Alaska and in Northern California.  Something is in the air, and this can lead to a general feeling of unease which will be seen in financial matters.  Word will be coming out about the flu season.  There is also activity in the skies.  Before discrediting anything, investigate.  People in the media, on the web, in charge, both mainstream and fringe, will be changing their opinions on a lot of things and you are going to need the background and information to make up your own mind.  At the same time, use your intuition.

Sunday, August 28:    Cloudy Red

What were you thinking?  There is so much going on right now, and it is not a good time in which to cause misunderstandings.  Clarification.  That is what is needed, but the energies of the day do not favor it.  Put off important conversations, phone calls, decisions.  You might just regret what you choose in this energy.  There are those out there who need help and they have been asking you, but they have not know how to approach you.  Let yourself sink into the craziness of today’s energy, and you will get a sense of the maelstrom that is brewing underneath everything.  If you can hold onto that, if you can conceptualize that, then things will begin to clear up. Paradoxical but true.  If you dive into the confusion and let yourself move through it, there is the clarity on the other side  This is a day when confusion reigns, so jump in, no judgments, no expectations.  Observe, and move through.  There is much to be learned.

Crystal Energy:    Psilomelane—-This mineral allows for grounding and centering.  It also assists in terms of root issues and the abdomen. Resonates with the Root and Navel Chakras.

Monday, August 29:    Clear

There is much that can be learned today.  Defenses will be down all around, and poeple will be feeling more open and more willing to share things.  There can be moments of Freudian slips and secrets let out.  It is important to be grounded in WHO you are and to be alert and sensitive to the situations and the people you encounter.  In this energy things can be revealed that are better kept to oneself or to a small group.  Consider carefully before speaking and listen well.  Because of the general shift of things all over much is being reshuffled and reworked. Take some time today to center, meditate, journal, create, anything that will allow you to get more in touch with your core.  It is important at this time to be in touch with the true knowing of your heart-mind.

Crystal energy:    Stichtite—-The energy of this mineral harmonizes with the Pleiadian vibration.  It works with the core for healing and understanding. Resonates with the Heart, Throat, Third Eye, and Crown Chakras.

Tuesday, August 30:    Light Amber

There is an air of unreality about the day.  This can lead to day dreams, lapses of attention, and loss of focus.  Put the internal critic to rest.  You are responding to the energies around you.  It is time to see things from a new and different perspective.  This is something that, perhaps, you have never given yourself permission to do before.  Today not only is there permission, there is also a really good reason,  Things are shifting and changing, and so are you.  You need to let go of some of your old ideas and determinations about what you should do and who you should be .  Most of that comes from conditioning and the expectations of others.  Take time to work with what your expectations are for yourself.  Take some time to be with your core the true WHO of you.  There is much to be learned in such an exercise.  It will assist you in seeing things in a new light and in being able to make some tough decisions that you have been putting off for some time.

Crystal Energy:    Crazy Lace Agate—-There is a gentle energy to this stone which assist with healing, particularly emotional healing.  It resonates with all chakras, depending upon the color, and is good for time of emotional stress.

Wednesday, August 31:    Light Lime Green

You might be feeling that you finally got it….  Whatever IT might be, but look more closely.  What you are thinking you are seeing might just be, upon closer inspection, something else all together.  There is much duplicity in the air today, along with seeming but not being.  Nothing decided upon today will come to fruition. So, if there are things you do not want to do but people are pressuring you to get involved in, you can say yes toady and know that you will not be held to it.  This is a day when things done and said will be lost and forgotten as time goes by.  That means that if there is something really, really important that you are wanting to communicate, this is not the day for it.  This is a good day just to veg and let the world go by.  No judgment, no opinion, no reaction.  Take it for what it is and let it go.

Crystal Energy:    Phacolite—-This is a good mineral to have around when you are feeling under stress.  It helps to center and brings a sense of the larger picture.  Resonates with the Navel Chakra.

Thursday, September 1:    Bluebonnet Blue

Today is all about what is going on around you.  This can lead to confusion and lack of focus.  Everything will seem to be calling for notice at once, and it will be hard to gather your thoughts together and give some sort of coherent sense to everything.  Do not let yourself get sucked into everyone else’s reality.  You need to take time to center, focus, prioritize.  You are not good for anyone or anything else if you are not good for yourself.  Today comes in with craziness and confusion.  But it is ultimately an opportunity for you to clear out all the background noise and begin to know what it is that is most important for you.

Crystal Energy:    Kammererite—-This mineral  resonates strongly with the female energy, bringing a sense of calm, belonging, and comfort.  It is good for ceremony honoring the Goddess.  Resonates with the Root and Crown Chakras.

Friday, August 2:   Lavender Blue

There is a lot going on in your head these days, and you can find that today you will be experiencing some real battles between the logical/intellectual and the intuitive/feeling.  This can lead to some confusion along with shortness of temper.  In these kinds of energy fields, vibrations are crashing against one another.  You are working in more than one reality at a time and you must make choices as to which one is the right one for this time.  This is also an excellent opportunity for learning what is involved with each one of those particular fields.  By spending time with what is going on and how you are feeling today, you can learn what you resonate with.  It is a time when you are learning of the shift that is happening, how you fit into it, and what it mean to be part of more than one dimension.

Crystal Energy:    Blue Aragonite (Laurium)—-This mineral allows for a leadership perspective and knowing of one’s power, while at the same time being receptive to the needs of others. It is helpful in bringing the bigger picture into view, especially at times of questioning.  Vibrates to the Throat Chakra.

Saturday, September 3:    Cloudy White

This week started with clouds and ends also on a cloudy note. There is a kind of nostalgia and longing in the air. There is also a sense of disconnect, of not being quite there with yourself, with others, with things that are happening around you.  Focus is off and things that seemed so important no longer seem to be that way.  This affects even your usual style.  You can find yourself doing uncharacteristic things, wearing clothing that is different from what you tend to choose, saying things that in other times you might have kept to yourself.  This will surprise you, but there will be other surprises in how people out there are acting and reacting.  This is, therefore, a good day for regrouping, taking time to yourself, attending to your feelings, and just relaxing.  Sometimes the best things to do is to stay home.

Crystal Energy:    Cuprian Aragonite—-The energy of this mineral works particularly well below the surface, affecting core and root issues, and allowng you to understand true motivations. Vibrates to the Throat Chakra.

Tuesday Could Bring Severe Weather

Tuesday could be BIG for Severe Weather

Posted: August 21, 2011 by Storm Central in Uncategorized

 

Tuesday could lead to interesting day for Severe Weather. With a un seasonal dip in the Jet over the Midwest, we could see a nice severe weather day for portions of the Midwest. As of now, tornadoes don’t look like a huge threat but the chance is a bit higher from previous summer outlooks. States included would be: IL, WIS, Iowa, MN, MO and this outlook below will likely expand. Graphical Updates tomorrow on this situation.
The area below will likely go to a 30% chance by tonight by the SPC.

 

d

 

 

Well, Hello, Irene

Future track of Irene consistent into Florida for several days, video included

Published on August 20, 2011 1:25 pm PT
– By Kevin Martin – Senior Meteorologist
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller


Click for 8/20/11 Update map

(TheWeatherSpace.com) — A system with a very wide counter-clockwise rotation is continuing to intensify as it moves toward the Caribbean.

This system; Invest 97, will likely be named Irene and cause problems in the medium term forecast. The system will move south of Puerto Rico and head close to the Dominican Republic and Haiti zones.

Because my tracking has been consistent for three days for a pincenter like left-hand hook into Southwestern Florida have decided to make a forecast video here at TWS and you can view it below this article. 

to read more and check out the video, go to:    http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-08_20_2011_futureirenevideo.html

August 21-27

Overall Color for the Week:    Royal Lavender

If you are one of those who gets freaked out by odd noises and ‘things that go bump in the night’, this is probably a good time in which to be aware of the fact that stuff like this will be happening more and more.  Cause and effect have encountered a disconnect as time frames and dimensions bump into one another.  You are well aware that the veils are thinning more and more all the time.  This is bringing into play more and more odd phenomena.   When things happen around you that cause you to stop, do that.  Take time and analyze what just occurred.  See if there is some larger framework into which you can put it.  This will be a big help in making sense of the new energy surges and blips that are heating up and will be more an more in evidence after Mercury goes direct on the 26th. So do not be surprised if things that did not/could not happen before begin to occur.  There are so many choices to make right now, and there is much that is not clear.  The seemingly hard choices can actually turn out to be the easy ones, especially if they involve doing what others tell us is the thing to do. The hard choices are the ones that involve listening to our hearts and following our intuition. Continue reading

Update on Harvey & 97L

Harvey drenching Belize; 97L a threat to the Caribbean and U.S.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:16 PM GMT on August 20, 2011 +21
Tropical Storm Harvey is closing in towards a landfall this afternoon in Belize, and is dumping very heavy rains on northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize as it steadily moves west near 12 mph. A personal weather station on Roatan Island on the north coast of Honduras has received 6.68″ of rain as of 10am EDT this morning from Harvey, and had a peak wind gust of 42 mph. The Roatan airport has received 3.55″, and had a peak wind gust of 40 mph. The first significant spiral band from Harvey moved over Belize City at 7am local time, dropping nearly an inch of rain on the city. Belize National Meteorological Service radar shows that Harvey has appeared to close off an eyewall as of 11:30am EDT, which may allow the storm to intensify another 10 – 15 mph before landfall. The 11am NHC wind probability forecast gave Harvey a 3% chance of making it to hurricane strength, but the discussion noted that it wouldn’t be that hard for Harvey to gain another 10 – 15 mph before landfall. I estimate there is a 30% chance that the winds along a 10-mile stretch of Belize coast where the eyewall makes landfall will reach hurricane force.


Figure 1. Radar image of Harvey taken at 11:30am EDT on Saturday, August 20, 2011, a few hours before landfall in Belize. A small closed eye is visible just south of the offshore islands of Belize. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service