Update 14/06 – 13:00 UTC – An increasing number of earthquakes, what is called an earthquake swarm, took place in the early hours this morning. Up to 19 earthquakes in less than 3 hours. Magnitudes have been high, with one reaching M 2.8. All depths in between 19 and 26 km. According to IGN this is normal and part of the seismic process and not the eruption. -Map done by AVCAN website with full list of earthquakes here:
Event
Date
Time
Lat
Lon
Depth
(km)
Mag
Location
1148498
14/06/2012
04:00:02
27.7251
-17.9972
20
0.5
NW EL PINAR.IHI
1148500
14/06/2012
04:32:09
27.7622
-18.0380
22
1.5
W FRONTERA.IHI
1148507
14/06/2012
04:40:20
27.7481
-18.0339
20
2.3
W FRONTERA.IHI
1148514
14/06/2012
04:46:49
27.7432
-18.0379
23
1.4
SW FRONTERA.IHI
1148515
14/06/2012
04:52:39
27.7834
-18.0411
24
1.9
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148530
14/06/2012
04:59:27
27.7873
-18.0422
21
1.3
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148531
14/06/2012
05:00:00
27.7596
-18.0381
26
1.4
W FRONTERA.IHI
1148542
14/06/2012
05:14:10
27.7519
-18.0415
22
1.6
W FRONTERA.IHI
1148536
14/06/2012
05:15:10
27.7306
-18.0264
22
1.9
SW FRONTERA.IHI
1148544
14/06/2012
05:22:16
27.7896
-18.0447
20
1.7
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148546
14/06/2012
05:27:00
27.7569
-18.0432
23
1.3
W FRONTERA.IHI
1148547
14/06/2012
05:34:31
27.8004
-18.0500
19
1.3
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148549
14/06/2012
05:34:56
27.7735
-18.0356
21
1.5
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148559
14/06/2012
05:41:04
27.7853
-18.0509
21
1.8
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148561
14/06/2012
05:54:22
27.8062
-18.0488
20
1.8
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148562
14/06/2012
06:01:52
27.7644
-18.0395
22
2.3
W FRONTERA.IHI
1148563
14/06/2012
06:05:07
27.7794
-18.0525
22
2.8
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148565
14/06/2012
06:06:20
27.7726
-18.0591
23
2.7
NW FRONTERA.IHI
1148568
14/06/2012
07:48:40
27.8015
-18.0680
21
2.1
NW FRONTERA.IHI
Update 13/06 – 13:00 UTC – 2 Earthquakes today after 5 days without any, making a total of 36 earthquakes registered by IGN since 1st June 2012.
– The strongest at 04:57 UTC with a Magnitude 1.8 and depth 25km. At 08:10 UTC a soft movement of Magnitude 0.3 and depth unknown. Both similar location, N Frontera.
Update 10/06 – 15:00 UTC – Following the update containing the document from ULPGC, here is the video, showing the volcano at different depth, bubbles and fish swimming along. Recorded by the Qstar Crew of the Atlantic Explorer.
for more information and updates, go to: http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/25/el-hierro-canary-islands-spain-volcanic-risk-alert-increased-to-yellow/
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : Mw5.8
UTC Time : Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 07:00:03 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Tuesday, May 29, 2012 at 09:00:03 AM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 9.6 km (USGS), 10.8 (INGV)
Geo-location(s) :
4 km N Mirandola (pop 23,078)
33 km N Modena (pop 181,011)
40 km (24 miles) NNW of Bologna, Italy
59 km (36 miles) E of Parma, Italy
Summary 29/05 – 15:15 UTC – aftershocks, how far away from the mainshock location ?
– A lot of people may be surprised today that totally other towns and villages are being mentioned today. Aftershocks mostly happen along the same fault, but can differ 10 to even 30 km into all directions. Todays strongest aftershock has an epicenter close to Mirandola and Cavezzo, about 20 km from the mainshock area.
Based on this you can imagine that people are very scared even in Bologna, Parma, Modena and Ferrara
Summary 29/05 – 15:15 UTC– probably 21st highest death toll since 1900
– The number of missing has just been increased to 7 (from 5)
– This would be the 21st highest death toll in Italy from an earthquake since 1900, if 20 people are presumed to be killed from the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database.
– A Facebook campaign is asking to cancel the Military June 2 parade.
– Just like on May 20, we have noticed that the damage is certainly not general though widespread. The video below shows a car drive through Cavezzo, the direct epicenter area of the first very strong aftershock. Some barns and walls have collapsed, others are still standing like last year.
Summary 29/05 – 14:55 UTC –
– Next Monday has been called a “Day of National Mourning”
Summary 29/05 – 14:30 UTC – 15 people have died – 4 or 5 still missing
– Updating the situation.
– 15 dead with 5 people reported missing. At least 20 people have been also injured.
(of these all have been in the province of Modena – 3 dead in San Felice sul Panaro: two workers and a technician who were doing some investigations on the static nature of the Meta Industry building, 1 death in Concordia (an elderly person killed by a falling cornice (a common way of death during earthquake, where fancy cornices and non-structural elements fall on people), 1 death in Finale, 1 death of the pastor of Rovereto nel Novi, Don Ivan Martini, the victim of falling debris, 2 women died in Cavezzo. 1 woman died buried beneath the rubble of Furniture Malavasi, 2 dead in the rubble of the factory Bbg San Giacomo Roncole in Mirandola, 1 male worker died by crushing through the collapse of the Haemotronic factory (they produce medical equipment).
– 6000 people are homeless as a result of this earthquake.
– Much damage has occurred to cathedrals, buildings and other infrastructure.
– The price tag is expected to equal that of the previous quake on 20 May or even exceed it.
– Further aftershocks have caused damage.
Summary 29/05 – 13:35 UTC – 15 people have died – 4 or 5 still missing
– The head of the Civil Defense, Franco Gabrielli, just announced that the present dead toll has further increased to 15. 4 or 5 people have been reported still missing.
Summary 29/05 – 13:22 UTC – Aid offered from other Italian provinces
– SAR and Civil Defense forces from other areas like Sardinia have offered their support to the damaged areas. Italian Civil Defense is leading and organizing aid efforts.
Summary 29/05 – 13:15 UTC – Bologna minor damage
– 10 families have been evacuated in Bologna. Authorities are currently checking the stability of cracked or damaged buildings.
Summary 29/05 – 12:55 UTC – School evacuations + early season closure
All schools in the area have been evacuated and we do not think students will be allowed in anymore. This is a precautionary measure. Parents from young children have been asked to pickup their children from elementary schools. School management does not allow children to leave schools unattended.
– The President of the Emilia Romagna province has asked the National Authorities to accept an early school closure as the situation becomes too dangerous in the earthquake zone
Summary 29/05 – 12:40 UTC – Free WIFI
The authorities in the earthquake area have opened their still working wifi stations to the public. They have removed the passwords who normally prohibit getting into it.
Summary 29/05 – 12:22 UTC – Video from the damage in Cavezzo
Summary 29/05 – 11:40 UTC – 12 deaths reported. 3 major aftershocks.
It can be expected that further large aftershocks will occur in the area, given this sequence of events. We urge Italians to stay off their mobile phones and to use internet resources instead to help emergency crews.
Summary 29/05 – 11:35 UTC – 11 deaths reported. 3 major aftershocks.
A twitter photo shows the devastation at Cavezzo where it is presumed that 75% of the houses have been damaged.
The devastation of Cavezzo (from Twitter).
Summary 29/05 – 11:31 UTC – 11 deaths reported.
San Possidonio will be the most affected town in this area due to these 2 new quakes. The town has about 3828 people.
The steeple of San Possidonio is very famous and is likely to have seen some damage as a result of these quakes.
The Steeple of San Possidonio.
Summary 29/05 – 11:30 UTC – 11 deaths reported.
Here are the details from INGV of the 2 latest quakes. In addition, our felt reports have shown that these quakes have been felt stronger in some locations.
Magnitude: 5.3
Depth: 6.8km
Region: Pianura Padana Emiliana
Provinces: MODENA,MANTOVA,REGGIO NELLEMILIA
Closest towns: San Possidonio
for more information and updates, go to: http://earthquake-report.com/2012/05/29/earthquake-and-aftershocks-northern-italy-may-29-aftershock-as-powerful-as-the-may-20-mainshock/
Summary 29/05 – 14:30 UTC – 15 people have died – 4 or 5 still missing
– Updating the situation.
– 15 dead with 5 people reported missing. At least 20 people have been also injured.
(of these all have been in the province of Modena – 3 dead in San Felice sul Panaro: two workers and a technician who were doing some investigations on the static nature of the Meta Industry building, 1 death in Concordia (an elderly person killed by a falling cornice (a common way of death during earthquake, where fancy cornices and non-structural elements fall on people), 1 death in Finale, 1 death of the pastor of Rovereto nel Novi, Don Ivan Martini, the victim of falling debris, 2 women died in Cavezzo. 1 woman died buried beneath the rubble of Furniture Malavasi, 2 dead in the rubble of the factory Bbg San Giacomo Roncole in Mirandola, 1 male worker died by crushing through the collapse of the Haemotronic factory (they produce medical equipment).
– 6000 people are homeless as a result of this earthquake.
– Much damage has occurred to cathedrals, buildings and other infrastructure.
– The price tag is expected to equal that of the previous quake on 20 May or even exceed it.
– Further aftershocks have caused damage.
Summary 29/05 – 11:40 UTC – 12 deaths reported. 3 major aftershocks.
It can be expected that further large aftershocks will occur in the area, given this sequence of events. We urge Italians to stay off their mobile phones and to use internet resources instead to help emergency crews.
Summary 29/05 – 11:35 UTC – 11 deaths reported. 3 major aftershocks.
A twitter photo shows the devastation at Cavezzo where it is presumed that 75% of the houses have been damaged.
The devastation of Cavezzo (from Twitter).
Summary 29/05 – 11:31 UTC – 11 deaths reported.
San Possidonio will be the most affected town in this area due to these 2 new quakes. The town has about 3828 people.
Summary 29/05 – 11:30 UTC – 11 deaths reported.
Here are the details from INGV of the 2 latest quakes. In addition, our felt reports have shown that these quakes have been felt stronger in some locations.
Magnitude: 5.3
Depth: 6.8km
Region: Pianura Padana Emiliana
Provinces: MODENA,MANTOVA,REGGIO NELLEMILIA
Closest towns: San Possidonio
Summary 29/05 – 11:25 UTC – 11 deaths reported.
Latest aftershock has caused additional damage – M5.3 at 6km depth. Then followed by a second of M5.1 at 11km depth. These were both located reasonably close to the mainshock and so will be called aftershocks.
GEOFON is registering the new event as M5.5, and USGS as an M5.6 at 9km depth.
In the very damaging Friuli events of 1976, 3 large shocks were also recorded, 1 in May and 2 in September with around 1000 killed in total.
Summary 29/05 – 11:20 UTC – 11 deaths reported. A M5.3 aftershock and then a M5.1 aftershock 4 minutes after
– 3 magnitude 5 earthquakes have occurred today. The depth of the M5.3 aftershock a few minutes ago was 6.8km, which is shallower and will likely have caused additional damage.
Summary 29/05 – 11:20 UTC – 11 deaths reported.
– A major aftershock of Mw5.6 has just occurred, we have been searching for additional info.
Summary 29/05 – 10:55 UTC – 11 deaths reported.
– At least 11 deaths have occurred according to local authorities. This is expected to climb in the coming hours.
– 1 person has been extracted from the rubble alive in Mirandola.
Summary 29/05 – 10:40 UTC – 10 deaths reported.
– The pastor of Carpi has been injured by falling masonry.
– All railways have been reopened.
– At least 5 workers are presumed to be dead in Emilia as well. There is at this point still confusion to the total death toll, but it is at least 10.
Summary 29/05 – 10:15 UTC – 9 deaths reported.
– There are still industrial workers under the rubble in San Felice.
– Two workers of a dairy in Piacenza were injured (1 seriously) in the storage of ripening cheese ‘Aimi’, for the fall of a large quantity of forms of grana padano from the shelves.
Riccardo Poli, Cremona, 20, resident of Castelvetro, suffered a crushed chest and he ‘was delivered to the Civil Hospital of Cremona’ on the danger list.
Laurentin Danut Popa, Romania, 44 years, has suffered a foot injury.
– Many new building collapses have occurred and the cathedral and the church of San Francesco in Mirandola looks as though it may collapse and is severely damaged.
After the earthquake this morning, new collapses were reported in Mirandola, Finale Emilia and San Felice sul Panaro, the provinces of which were already affected by the quake of May 20.
– There has been other collapses in the Rocca Estense di Finale Emilia, Modena, near the epicenter. The fortress had already been damaged by the earthquake of May 20 and the shock had destroyed a tower of Modena, the symbol of the town.
– The center of Cavezzo is extremely damaged where many historic buildings have collapsed and the roof of the church, already damaged by the earthquake last week has collapsed. For now there are no reports of casualties, but work is still being undertaken.
Summary 29/05 – 09:45-10.00 UTC – 9 deaths reported.
– There are nine confirmed victims of the earthquake in the Modena. 3 in San Felice, due to collapse in the industrial zone Meta, 2 in Mirandola, 1 in Concordia (an old killed by a ledge) and 1 in one to the Final.
The pastor of Rovereto in Novi has been killed, although it is unclear whether the victim of falling debris or an illness. A woman also died in Cavezzo, buried beneath the rubble of Mobilificio Malavasi.
– There have also been a undisclosed number of injured
Summary 29/05 – 09:35 UTC – 8 deaths reported.
– There have also been 2 very severely injured people who may not make it through.
– The Duomo in Mirandola is said to be severely damaged. A twitter photo shows some of the damage.
Twitter picture of the Duomo damage in Mirandola.
Summary 29/05 – 09:30 UTC – 8 deaths reported.
– A M5.8 earthquake has struck just west of the May 20 earthquake in Italy.
– So far 8 people are reported dead .
– 2 deaths in Mirandola, 3 deaths in San Felice sul Panaro, Concordia, Roverto sul Secchia and Finale Emilia.
– Much damage reported from houses. This will likely amount to the same losses seen from the May 20 quake, with already damaged structures having further damage. This quake will also affect further the cheese production in the area.
This earthquake is of course CATDAT Red.
Update 29/05 – 09:25 UTC – 6 deaths reported.
– Workers that were working on removing the rubble from the May 20 earthquakes have also been injured while working on cranes at the start of their day. Our hearts go out to all those affected.
Update 29/05 – 09:20 UTC – 6 deaths reported.
– A sixth person died in Rovereto sul Secchia, but it is unclear whether he/she died from a heart attack or the consequences of a collapse.
Update 29/05 – 09:15 UTC – 5 deaths reported.
– There have been 2 deaths in Mirandola – 1 by falling debris in his house and 1 in an industrial site.
– 1 death has been reported in San Felice sul Panaro.
– 1 death in Concordia.
– 1 death in Finale Emilia.
– 5 or 6 people are still under the debris.
Update 29/05 – 09:05 UTC – An update by INGV as to the location of the earthquake and the aftershocks as shown in red.
29th May Quake and Aftershock locations (more west than the original) courtesy of INGV.
Update 29/05 – 09:20 UTC – 6 deaths reported.
– A sixth person died in Rovereto on the Secchia, but it is unclear whether he/she died from a heart attack or the consequences of a collapse.
Update 29/05 – 09:15 UTC – 5 deaths reported.
– There have been 2 deaths in Mirandola – 1 by falling debris in his house and 1 in an industrial site.
– 1 death has been reported in San Felice sul Panaro.
– 1 death in Concordia.
– 1 death in Finale Emilia.
– 5 or 6 people are still under the debris.
Update 29/05 – 09:05 UTC – An update by INGV as to the location of the earthquake and the aftershocks as shown in red.
29th May Quake and Aftershock locations (more west than the original) courtesy of INGV.
Update 29/05 – 09:00 UTC Still 3 deaths.
– In Bologna, many people ran out to the homes and offices and took to the streets of the old town. Several university departments and schools were evacuated, where classes had just started and where students and teachers were very scared.
– Major train delays can be expected with major problems around Bologna Centrale.
Update 29/05 – 08:55 UTC 3 deaths have been reported. 2 deaths occurred on via Perossaro in San Felice sul Panaro. There has also been a third man killed in Mirandola in Via 25 Luglio. The victims were killed by falling masonry and structures.
We are still awaiting the fate of Mirandola, close to the epicenter, where a shed collapsed on four workers who are under the rubble and firefighters are trying to lead them to safety.
Update 29/05 – 08:45 UTC
– The shock came at about 9am. A M5.8 earthquake, the same as the one that hit 9 days ago.
– The magnitude 5.8 shock has been followed by 8 shocks between 2.9 and 4.0.
– At 9.07 there was a 4.0 degree quake with its epicenter in the province of Modena; at 9.13, an M3.6 with its epicenter between the provinces of Mantua, Reggio Emilia and Modena; 9.30 – a magnitude 3.2 with epicenter in the province of Modena, 9:38 an earthquake of magnitude 3.1 occurred between the provinces of Mantua and Modena, 9:39 a M2.9 between provinces of Mantua and Modena at 9:49; a M3.7 between Mantova and Modena; at 9:59 a shock of M3.3 in the provinces of Mantua and Modena, and finally, a magnitude 3.0 at 10.04 in the province of Modena.
for more information and updates, go to: http://earthquake-report.com/2012/05/20/very-strong-shallow-earthquake-kills-at-least-3-people-in-the-mantua-ferrara-and-modena-area-italy/
The Moon: Really, it is your friend. Image courtesy of NASA.
{This article was originally posted on March 11, 2011. I’ve reposted it today because of another so-called “Supermoon” on May 6, 2012}
I’ve had a number of questions lately about a couple of events coming up this month astronomically and how they might effect geologic events – namely earthquakes and volcanoes – on Earth. I can tell you right now, without much doubt, that the answer, even before I tell you the question, is very, very little.
Now, the questions: (1) How will the close passage of Comet Elenin and Earth cause geologic catastrophes on March 15 and (2) How will the so-called “Supermoon“, a full moon when the moon is closest to Earth in its orbit, cause geologic catastrophes?
I know there has long been a desire to show about the gravitational resonance of planets/comets/asteroids/the sun might play a role in Earth’s geologic activity – and with some logic. We see the interaction of the Earth’s surface with the Moon’s gravity (and to some extent the Sun’s) with the tides in the oceans. Water has low viscosity so the tidal tugging of the moon as it rotates around the Earth sloshes the oceans back and forth to create our tides. One could imagine that the Earth’s crust/mantle/core might feel some of that gravitational interaction as well – and they do. John Vidale, a seismologist at the University of Washington, mentions that during full and new moons – when the moon is oriented between or opposite the Earth and the sun – there is potentially as much as a 1% increase in earthquake activity worldwide (and a slightly higher effect on volcanic activity). Let me repeat that: 1%. In any natural, geologic process that is mostly distributed randomly through time like earthquakes, 1% or there about is well within the “noise” of processes, so would these alignments produce much of a discernable increase? Probably not and this is with the two bodies that play the largest role in tidal forcing on Earth. There are other studies that suggest that this tidal tugging and pulling can cause small shifts in fault systems like the San Andreas, but one might argue that the moon is, in fact, “passively” releasing seismic energy on the fault, thus preventing or delaying large earthquakes! Trying to say that any other astronomical body might, even in some specific alignment, might cause more than a 1% increase in the chance of activity is remote at best.
Some of the so-called evidence for this moon-earthquake relationship is specious at best. From aNational Geographic article on the “lunar connection” back in 2005: “At least two major quakes may support [James A.] Berkland’s theory. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon. Likewise, the March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide. According to Berkland, such correlations are more than coincidences. They demonstrate a true connection between the moon and earthquake activity.” First off, two earthquakes coinciding with full moons is hardly scientific, statistically-sound evidence. How many “large” earthquakes (and who defines that anyway?) occur when it isn’t a full moon? And how many full moons have we had when there wasn’t a “large” earthquake? I’ve said this before, but it is an easy trap – correlation does not mean causation. Full moons happen 12 (maybe 13) times a year, so if you randomly sprinkle earthquakes through time, many large ones are bound to coincide with the full moon. USGS seismologist Dr. John Bellini followed up on Berkland’s theories: “Bellini questioned the scientific validity of Berkland’s predictions. He said they appear to be “self-selected statistical analysis of historical seismicity rates and are so vague in time and location that they are certain to be correct.”
Now, as for the Moon’s relative position to Earth and its effect, the Moon when it is at least closest is 356,401 km from the Earth’s surface and at its furthest, it is 406,700 km (with an average distance of 384,401 km. That is a difference of ~50,300 km ~ in other words, when the Moon is closest to Earth, it is ~12% closer than it is at its furthest. Newtonian physics tells us that the attraction between the Earth and the Moon is dictated by F = GM1M2/R2, where M1 and M2 are the masses of the Earth and Moon, G is the gravitational constant and R is the distance between the two bodies. Even a ~12% change in that value means that the force of gravity, in Newtons, only changes by ~30% at maximum (and only ~11% difference from average), a change that happens gradually as the Moon moves around its orbit. We see this fairly small change with different sized tides, but even those changes are not “disastrous”. When you consider the energy needed to move tectonic plates (or even the oceans), this change in gravitational energy from the Earth-Moon system is small. Remember, that the Moon is at its closest once a month, so just because it happens during a full moon doesn’t mean that the gravitational pull from the Moon is any stronger than it would be at any other perigee. Remember, the Moon reaches perigee every month and you don’t see massive earthquakes and eruptions every time this happens.
Some planetary bodies do see a profound effect of tidal forces. The moons of Jupiter areconstantly being tugged by the high gravity of Jupiter as the whiz around the gas giant. You can see that constant, frictional energy being imparted on the rocks of the moons in the relative geologic activity on the Galilean satellites – closest to Jupiter lies Io (at ~420,000 km), the most volcanically active body in the solar system. It gets tugged by a force 300% more than the Moon pulls on Earth. Next comes Europa (at ~664,000 km), where there are suggestions that liquid or slushy subsurface water exists due to tidal heating. Ganymede and Callisto, even further from Jupiter, show much fewer signs of liquid water or extensive tidal heating. The gravity of Jupiter is the direct cause for the geologic activity on these small planetary bodies.
The lava flow from the Kamoamoa Fissure snaking around an old crater on Kilauea, as seen on March 10, 2011. This eruption did not start during a full/new moon. Image courtesy of HVO/USGS.
As I mentioned before, this sort of “correlation” of astronomical alignments and geologic disasters have been predicted before – with results that were coincidental at best. Back in 2006, there was rampant speculation about how a full moon was going to trigger an eruption of Mayon in the Philippines … and it didn’t. In a USGS article about volcanoes and the moon, they make the point that it does appear that activity at some volcanoes, like Kilauea, are effected by lunar cycles – however, this does not mean that an eruption at any specific volcano worldwide can be predicted using lunar cycles. There are just too many other variables, so unless the volcano is already erupting, such as Kilauea (see above from an eruption that didn’t start on a new/full moon), don’t expect the Moon to bring volcanoes to life. Even if the volcano is predisposed to be close to eruption (and even defining that is difficult), there is no data to support this (to borrow a quote from a paper that Chris Rowan’s uses in a post on the subject): “We found no conclusive evidence for a general correlation between volcanic activity and lunar tidal phase. This result is consistent with recent work which indicates that diurnal and fortnightly tidal stresses may be too short-lived and strain rates too high to effect a significant viscous response in partially molten regions of the Earth’s subsurface.” (Mason et al., 2004). During this Mayon hype in 2006, Phil Plait also took on these predictions and points out the biggest flaw with many of these “correlations”: “It’s small number statistics, like flipping a coin three times and having it come up heads each time. It’s rare, but it does happen on average one out of every eight times. You need bigger samples to get good statistics.”Science requires data that can show a valid correlation, not picking what fits best to your ideas. UPDATE: Phil takes on the “Supermoon” as well.
If anything, we should be concentrating on terrestrial forcing for “predicting” earthquakes. It could be that changes in the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field, due to the thickness and composition of the Earth, but might help find earthquake-prone locations. A study in Science by Song and Simons from 2003examined the gravity anomaly (how much the gravitational field from the Earth varies from the norm) along a subduction and then compared it to a long historical record of seismicity. It found that “within a given subduction zone, areas with negative gravity anomalies correlated with increased large earthquake activity. Areas with relatively high gravity anomalies experienced fewer large earthquakes.” However, how we can use the changes in gravity anomaly to predict earthquakes is still very unclear.
So, what can we take away from all this?
The Moon plays a very small role in increasing seismicity and volcanic activity on Earth – potentially increasing activity ~1% during full/new moons.
The change in the gravitational pull from the Moon during apogee and perigee is small.
Beyond this, there is no statistically-sound evidence that geologic disasters can be predicted based on lunar alignments or distance (or any other astronomical phenomena).
The keys to understanding how to predict earthquakes or eruptions (if at all possible) lie within the Earth, not deep in space.
From Chris Rowan: “The moon does not magically load up plate boundary faults or fill magma chambers … The most the moon can do is slightly alter the timing of an earthquake or eruption that was on the verge of happening anyway.”
April 29, 2012 – 2 strong earthquakes along the coast of Honshu, Japan
Last update: April 29, 2012 at 3:43 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Another strong coastal earthquake near Miyako, Honshu, Japan
This quake reported as M5.6 by JMA Japan (depth 20 km) had an epicenter a little out of the coast.
Max. JMA intensity 4JMA, below the damaging level.
The Quake was closest to Kuji and Miyako.
Image courtesy JMA Japan – dark orange highest intensity
Strong earthquake along the coast of Honshu, Japan
JMA Japan reports a magnitude of 5.8 at a depth of 50 km
Max. intensity : 5- (just below what Er considers a potential serious damaging level) 5- intensity at Asahi-shi Minami-horinouchi*
Earthquake must have been well felt in Tokyo
12 km S Choshi (pop 75,650)
46 km E Narita (pop 100,641) Narita is one of the Tokyo airports
93 km E Tokyo (pop 8,336,599)
Minor damage cannot be excluded in the 5- intensity area
The earthquake occurred at an intermediate depth what means that the intensity is weakened by the depth of the hypocenter JMA Japan reports that the epicenter is located 6 km inland in a city called Tonosho.
Of course NO tsunami risk at this magnitude
Update 10:54 UTC : USGS data are pointing the epicenter in a highly populated region of Kanto in Japan. The earthquake happened 7km from Naruto. The nearest populated places are: Oami (19km), Katakai (10km), Togane (11km), Hasunuma (2km), Yokoshiba (5km), Asahi Yokaichiba (20km), Tako (14km), Narita (18km). The closest civilian airport is Tokyo Narita International (20km).
El Hierro Volcano : Green and Yellow alert – eruption continuing + still dead fish above the main vent area
Last update: April 29, 2012 at 11:18 am by By Armand Vervaeck
Update 29/04 – 10:25 UTC – A stain is present in Las Calmas sea this morning. No jacuzzi has been observed. This stain could be the remains of yesterday’s activity. Joke images will be online later today.
Update 29/04 – 10:20 UTC – An amazing picture of the waters of the vent area which was photographed yesterday by Julio del Castillo Vivero. Colored waters with a lot of seagulls having lunch with dead fish
Update 28/04 – 23:48 UTC As written earlier, Julio del Castillo Vivero was invited by the crew of the Atlantic Explorer to sail with them to the vent area. He wrote the following : Hello, very good day with the Atlantic Explorer, the crew of Qstar and the scientists of ULPGC. I was above the volcano! A very special moment for me after many months following the eruption. I saw lots of seagulls above the main vent, eating dead fish, around the size of 10cm that was emerging to the surface. The stain was very clearly visible today from the boat, with a green color, not super strong concentrated as used to, but quite clear.
I didn’t get seasick at all, it was very good. Sea was calm in the morning and then also sunny from midday.
Great day! Great people! Great images!
(ER : strange that there are still dead fish above the main vent – we also noticed on Jokes pictures in the middle of the week that a lot of seagulls were flying above the vent area.
The news coming in from the Atlantic Explorer is even more important as Joke has not seen any action in the sea today, which means that the volcano can erupt without a clear visual sign on the outside. Good to know is that seagulls on the vent area are indicating dead fish and thus erupting material and that a stain clearly indicates action which is more than degassing)
Update 28/04 – 22:55 UTC – 1 additional earthquake today and if not revised , extremely shallow at 1 km. Magnitude 1.0. Time 21:32.Epicenter in El Golfo
Update 28/04 – 13:17 UTC – 1 earthquake since midnight. A M1.4 magnitude quake at a depth of 15 km on this location
– Julio del Castillo Vivero is on board of the Atlantic Explorer. Luckily for him the sea is calm reports Joke (an Ocean swell is even with calm weather often enough to get seasick!). Let’s hope that Julio will have some nice pictures later today. The ROV will not be used today as the people on board of the ship have a bunch of other tasks. Julio has send the image below from the ship a little earlier. It shows the volcano cone at his present depth. We will have to wait until tonight to find out what the colors really mean.
I a direct message to us, Julio writes : ERUPTION STILL ONGOING
Image made by Julio del Castillo Vivero on board of the Qstar Atlantic Explorer today
2012 The first three months: Signs in the sun and the moon and the stars
From BeforeItsNews.com
We weren’t sure where to post this until we watched the whole thing and realized how great it would be if everyone had a chance to see it. In a little over 24 minutes the following video delivers a chronological peek at some of the signs and portents that have come to pass since the New Year began. It is one thing to know what’s going on close to home but it is something else to understand that the entire fabric of our reality is reeling in response to forces and energies that are impacting us all. You will find a taste of fire and brimstone underlying all of the factual information in this documentary. Take the apocalyptic overtones for what they are worth. The bulk of what is recorded here is being presented to give you a sense of just how much life on this planet is changing and to remind you that there is no better time than now to slow down and reconnect with the heart beat of Mother Earth.
A Precariously Balanced Rock, or PBR.
CREDIT: James Brune
SAN DIEGO — In the western San Bernardino Mountains, near the highway that links Los Angeles and Las Vegas, scientists recently discovered a geological mystery: colossal rocks perched in precarious poses right next door to the San Andreas Fault.
It’s not the rocks’ balancing act that is perplexing, said Lisa Grant Ludwig, a scientist who presented this puzzle to colleagues this week here at the annual meeting of the Seismological Society of America. It’s how the rocks have managed to stay that way with such an aggressive maker of powerful earthquakes just a few miles away.
Rocks with seemingly acrobatic balance are seen all over the world. Meteorological and geological forces wash away the material around them, leaving the giant rocks balancedlike a top. There’s even a term for them: Precariously Balanced Rocks, or PBRs for short, said Ludwig, an assistant professor at the University of California, Irvine.
“When you start to get into seismically active areas there are fewer and fewer,” Ludwig told OurAmazingPlanet. “And you don’t expect to see them right next to active faults —and you don’t, generally.”
Still standing
In fact, PBRs are used to verify earthquake hazard maps. “Quite some time ago it was recognized that wherever you see these things, it’s an indication there haven’t been a lot of really strong earthquakes because they haven’t been shaken down,” Ludwig said.
That’s what makes the San Bernardino PBRs so very strange. There are two pockets of more than a dozen of the gracefully balancing rocks, and some are only 4 miles (7 kilometers) from the fault.
Ludwig said that when a colleague brought her pictures of the rocks — and asked how they could possibly withstand the earthquakes that tear along the San Andreas Fault — she had to go see them for herself.
Subsequent dating research revealed that the rocks had been standing in their positions for millennia — in some cases as long as 18,000 years. “That’s a long time for something that is so close to a big fault,” Ludwig said.
It’s not clear why violent shaking has apparently spared the two small pockets near the fault where the rocks still stand. “I think it shows an area of complexity in the fault rupture,” Ludwig said, “and that is what a lot of my colleagues seem to agree on in the discussion.”
She said it’s something that researchers will be pursuing next. “We don’t have a good explanation,” she said.
El Hierro Volcano : Green and Yellow – Pevolca changes alert status from Yellow to Green
Last update: April 20, 2012 at 12:23 pm by By Armand Vervaeck
Update 20/04 – 12:17 UTC
– Joke Volta’s images of today April 20. Calima (African desert dust fog) has finally gone and the pictures are getting more colorful.
Update 20/04 – 07:50 UTC
– NO listed earthquakes since midnight
Update 19/04 – 23:55 UTC
– A third El Hierro earthquake at 18:59 today. Magnitude 0.7, depth 12 km. Epicenter here.
– We have changed the title a littlebit to reflect the current situation. No immediate risk to the island anymore, but still some minor volcanic activity (mainly earthquakes and a little degassing) around the main vent.
Update 19/04 – 15:21 UTC
– It looks like the volcano doesn’t like Pevolca or Mr. Armas !. Almost together with Mr. Armas tweet, the ground was shaking again, a M1.2 earthquake at 13:01 UTC at a depth of 10 km, here
Update 19/04 – 14:09 UTC
– More details have been reported a little later, such as :
* the alert level of the island itself will change from Yellow to Green
* the area surrounding the main vent is downgraded from Red to Yellow (in other words, some limited vigilance remains around the volcano)
* The BIO Las Palmas (Oceanographic vessel), who made some extensive bathymetry last week, measured the depth of the cone at 86 meter.
* Today’s images of Joke Volta
Update 19/04 – 12:09 UTC
– In a short twitter message from the Cabildo de Hierro (office of Mr. Alpidio Armas), the Green Alert of the entire island has been declared by Pevolca. Due to the very slim activity of the last couple of weeks (only faint stains and degassing), the Alert level change seems logical to Earthquake-Report.com
Update 19/04 – 11:03 UTC
– We have noticed one M2.2 earthquake at a depth of 32 km at 08:32 UTC at a very unusual place, which may explain the difference in depth.
Update 18/04 – 21:32 UTC
– ER reader John commented on our remark from this morning that we did not know where CHIE station was exactly. He said : found the location of CHIE it is Latitude 27.72700 Longitude -17.96070 . Information found athttp://www.isc.ac.uk/cgi-bin/stations?listr=Canary+Islands:Europe. Thank you John.
– 1 new earthquake at 14:37 UTC at a depth of 1 km (mostly IGN revises these shallow depths which has not been done so far) ! Magnitude : 0.5. Epicenter here
Update 18/04 – 12:12 UTC
– Joke Volta images of today April 18, a “Calima” day (special regional weather type). Joke hasn’t seen anything special today, but nevertheless she continues to make pictures mainly to have a full series of visuals.
Update 18/04 – 10:52 UTC
– 1 earthquake since midnight. Magnitude 1.4 at a depth of 13 km. Epicenter here
– ER reader Leona has commented that it looks that the thickness of the CHIE HT line has increased since more than 24 hours now. We have the same feeling and have therefore increased the line with the same factor today and 4 days ago. Of course this should not mean anything, as it maybe temporary noise or even instrumental error margin. We neither have an idea where CHIE comes from. El Hierro has a lot of different instruments.
Last update: April 19, 2012 at 4:00 pm by By Armand Vervaeck
M 5.1 2012/04/19 01:58 Depth 18.8 km TAIWAN 09:58:07 AM at epicenter
Moderate shallow earthquake felt as far as Taipei
M 4.5 2012/04/19 14:35 Depth 10.0 km OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 169 km (105 miles) SE of Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico
M 4.7 2012/04/19 07:42 Depth 46.8 km IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION
M 4.8 2012/04/19 06:30 Depth 14.8 km NORTH INDIAN OCEAN M 4.7 2012/04/19 05:00 Depth 32.1 km NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN M 5.2 2012/04/19 03:33 Depth 18.0 km NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN M 4.9 2012/04/19 02:48 Depth 18.2 km VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION M 5.1 2012/04/19 01:58 Depth 18.8 km TAIWAN M 4.8 2012/04/19 01:41 Depth 14.9 km NORTH OF SVALBARD M 4.7 2012/04/19 01:14 Depth 52.3 km COQUIMBO, CHILE M 4.8 2012/04/19 00:24 Depth 71.8 km KURIL ISLANDS
Label info : M = magnitude, D = depth (km), Time = UTC – Click here for conversion in your local time.
[quake date=”2012-4-19″ location=”-80,80,-179,179″ Number=”100″ magnitude=”>4.5″][/quake]
Data sources courtesy : USGS – EMSC – GFZ – GEONET
Image made by Julio del Castillo Vivero on board of the Qstar Atlantic Explorer today
!. Almost together with Mr. Armas tweet, the ground was shaking again, a M1.2 earthquake at 13:01 UTC at a depth of 10 km, 
Comparison in amplitude of CHIE graph El Hierro