CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR1465 has developed a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of M-class eruptions during the next 24 hours. Because the active region is located on the Earthside of the sun, any flares from AR1465 will likely be geoeffective.

Even without a strong eruption from AR1465, ionization waves are already rippling through Earth’s upper atmosphere. Dave Gradwell of Birr, Ireland, recorded a series of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs) on April 27th:

Low-level flares from several sunspot groups (especially 1465, 1466 and 1467) are strobing the atmosphere with ionizing radiation. Using a VLF receiver, Gradwell detected their effect on the propagation of radio signals transmitted from France. So far the disturbances have been relatively weak, but this could change if AR1465 unleashes a more potent eruption over the weekend

from:    spaceweather.com