GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on July 29-30 in response to a high-speed solar wind stream buffeting Earth’s magnetic field. Even stronger storming could occur on July 31st when a CME associated with yesterday’s M6-flare arrives. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras for the next three nights.
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M6-CLASS FLARE: Solar activity is picking up. For the second day in a row, sunspot AR1532 has unleashed a moderately-strong solar flare. The latest, an M6-class eruption, occurred on July 28th at 2056 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme UV flash:
It is too soon to say if the eruption produced a coronal mass ejection (CME). If it did, Earth would likely receive no more than a glancing blow from the cloud. The sunspot is too far off disk center to be very geoeffective. This could change in the days ahead, however, as the sunspot turns toward Earth.
from: spaceweather.com
RADIATION STORM: A low-level radiation storm is underway as solar protons swarm around our planet. Ranked S1 on NOAA space weather scales, the storm poses no serious threat to astronauts or satellites. Nevertheless it is a nuisance. Minor radiation storms can cause occasional reboots of computers onboard spacecraft and add “snow” to spacecraft imaging systems. This SOHO coronagraph image of the sun, taken during the early hours of July 20th, is a good example:
Each of the speckles in the image (a handful are circled) are caused by protons hitting the spacecraft’s CCD camera. During minor storms it is possible to see through this kind of snow. During severe storms, such images become practically opaque.
The protons were accelerated toward Earth by an M7-class solar flare on July 19th. Although the blast site (sunspot AR1520) was on the farside of the sun, the protons were able to reach Earth anyway, guided toward our planet by backward-spiralling lines of magnetic force.
from: spaceweather.com
ALMOST X-FLARE : Sunspot complex AR1520-1521 erupted again on July 19th, this time producing an M7-class solar flare that almost crossed the threshold into X-territory. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
The explosion produced a bright coronal mass ejection. The cloud should miss Earth.
Although the explosion occured on the other side of the sun’s western limb, our planet could feel some effects. The blast site is magnetically connected to Earth by backward-spiralling lines of magnetic force. Protons accelerated by the flare are being guided to us by those lines of magnetism, and a mild radiation storm is underway.
from: spaceweather.com
X-FLARE: For days, giant sunspot AR1515 has looked capable of producing a really strong explosion. On July 6th it finally did. Yesterday, the sunspot’s magnetic canopy erupted, producing a brief but potent X1.1-class solar flare. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
The explosion hurled a CME into space. According to this movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, the cloud appears to be heading south and away from Earth. However, we cannot yet rule out a glancing blow to our planet on July 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for further analysis.
Look at the CME movie one more time. The speckles near the end are caused by energetic protons accelerated by the flare. Guided toward Earth by solar magnetic fields, the protons are peppering Earth-orbiting satellites, causing “snow” in imaging systems and posing a slim threat for single-event upsets (computer glitches).
from: spaceweather.com
INCOMING CME: On July 4th, sunspot AR1515 hurled at least four minor CMEs into space. Most flew south of the ecliptic plane (the orbital plane of the planets), on track to miss everything. One of them, however, appears to be heading toward Earth. Click to view an animated forecast track of the incoming cloud:
According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the forecast, the cloud will reach Earth on July 7th around 0600 UT. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on that date.
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INCOMING CMES: On June 14th, for the second day in a row, sunspot AR1504 erupted and hurled a CME toward Earth. The fast-moving (1360 km/s) cloud is expected to sweep up a previous CME and deliver a combined blow to Earth’s magnetic field on June 16th around 10:16 UT. This animation shows the likely progression of the approaching storm:
According to the forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CMEs will also hit Venus on June 15th and Mars on June 19th. Because Venus and Mars do not have global magnetic fields to protect them, both of those planets will probably lose tiny amounts of atmosphere when the CMEs strike.
Here on Earth, the impact is likely to trigger a geomagnetic storm around the poles. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on June 16th.
fr/spaceweather.com
INCOMING CMES: On June 14th, for the second day in a row, sunspot AR1504 erupted and hurled a CME toward Earth. The fast-moving (1360 km/s) cloud is expected to sweep up a previous CME and deliver a combined blow to Earth’s magnetic field on June 16th around 10:16 UT. This animation shows the likely progression of the approaching storm:
According to the forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CMEs will also hit Venus on June 15th and Mars on June 19th. Because Venus and Mars do not have global magnetic fields to protect them, both of those planets will probably lose tiny amounts of atmosphere when the CMEs strike.
Here on Earth, the impact is likely to trigger a geomagnetic storm around the poles. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on June 16th.
from: spaceweather.com
CHANCE OF MAGNETIC STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 48 hours as a pair of CMEs pass by Earth, possibly delivering glancing blows to our magnetic field.
fr/spaceweather.com
NTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVE: An interpanetary shock wave possibly associated with the M5-class solar flare of May 17th swept past Earth on May 20th around 0200 UT. The shock’s arrival caused geomagnetic activity around the poles, and several outbreaks of high-latitude auroras. Images:#1, #2.
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