Welcome to Storm Central’s Winter Weather Forecast for the 2011-2012 Year. Now, Might I begin by saying this is going to be quite an active year just like last year. All aspects being in play have narrowed this down to another La Nina pattern for the United States. Now let me explain what the causes of La Nina would be:
La Nina: In the simplest terms La Nina is the warmer water in the Equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean. These situations of La Nina (Which means Girl in Spanish) can develop quickly. For example: We had a La Nina pattern for much of the Winter of 2010-2011 and into the spring time. This pattern, the La Nina effect, caused all the troubles with the Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreaks in both April 27-28 of April and the other Outbreak in May with the Joplin Tornado. Usually, La Nina creates a warmer type of pattern but as shown by last year this pattern can create negative impacts to the areas where their isn’t warmth. La Nina pattern affects other areas rather than the United States and can send negative positive impacts or negative impacts across the globe.
Since La Nina pattern is in effect once again, expect most of the same from last year to occur this year. Allot of the areas that were hit last year hard will once again be hit hard again.
The biggest player in all this would be the Greenland Blocking Pattern. The Greenland Block is the a big deal to the United States. It basically states if you get a Mild Winter with Little Snow to a Cold Winter with lots of snow. The Greenland High, Situated over Greenland affects Earth all the way around. Now When you have the greenland high in place, Jet Stream winds are forced over and around the high. With that can bring a sign of trouble for The United States if this plays out. Basically, the Pacific Jet Stream ushers in cold air from Alaska into Canada then can bring very cold air into the United States. With that, the Jet heads northward over the high and around it and into Europe where the chilly airmass could affect them two. Now remember, aside from Un Cut lows, the Pacific Jet Stream is where most of our seasonal and un seasonal Winter Storms come from. With that Greenland Blocking Pattern In affect, that would keep the warm air south and west in the United States and the cold air over the center, north and east in the United States. Keeping all that in mind, that means all the low’s would ride that Pacific Jet Stream. Not all go that south, some are un-cut and some do an Alberta Clipper style and go to the north with little moisture. But the ones that go south get moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico then ride northward are the dangerous storm complexes to watch as they dip far enough south, get moisture, then ride into the great lakes or Ohio Valley. These can produce Ice Storms to KY, AR,TN and blizzards to MO, IL, IN, OH and the whole East Coast.
Storm Central’s Forecast:
-Storm Central is forecasting the La Nina Pattern with a weak to moderate Greenland Block during the Winter. As other outlooks have been, they have more of a strong blocking which would send very cold air all the way south to the Gulf Coast along with Precipitation. Below is an example of a real life situation with the Greenland Blocking Pattern. As you can see if you enlarge the graphic by clicking it, you see the pacific jet being marked in Purple with the Greenland High being over Greenland Itself. The effects on this situation would be a moderate blocking which would only send the jet stream as far south as Tennesse. Based on this patter, The west stays warm and the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and whole East Coast stay very cold. Now this can move from side to side every week. That means just because your below the jet for that week and could be in the 4-’s with rain could mean you could be in the 30′s and snowing the next week. Some weeks, espically early winter when I forecast this to be way north with the core of cold staying North into Northern Midwest, you will see no action during this time. 
Effects on Weak/Moderate/Strong Greenland Blocking:
-Weak: Jet Stream stays to the north and the blocking is considered weak. Weak meaning the core of cold will stay to the north. This is the best time for Alberta Clippers to set down a good 4 inch snowfall in a day and be out of there. This is not a great lake producer as you need low pressures to move south of the lake to turn the winds off the lake therefore produce lake effect snowfall.
-Moderate: This Forecast for the blocking could be the worse out of all them for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This would take any storm system south that has a good potential to pick up gulf moisture and then move northeastward and precipation. Depending on temperatures, this could be in the form of snow, rain, sleet, ice ect. Im sure everyone remebers the 2011 Blizzard or some call it the Ground Hog Day Blizzard of 2011. it took this type of path and gathered tons of moisture that moved northeast and dumped snow. Other factors caused the winds and we had a 20inch+ Blizzard for allot of areas. If this pattern takes shape we could see a repeat of the 2011 Blizzard. Now also this takes the core of cold air southward so portions of Missouri and Arkansas would be chilly two.
-Strong: This forecast is the worst for the South. This pattern would be a very strong blocking and would take systems south and then northeast again into KY, TN, WV and then into the East Coast with snow and ice. Very cold tempearures would reach all the way south to Missippi and Alabama. This realitively doesn’t occur for a long time with a long shot of cold air but the potential is their.
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Now, as most of you know me I love to talk and I’m hitting 1100 words and I am not even at the good part yet. Now for the Forecast!
Storm Central is predicting a big year once again. This years winter will include both the Moderate and Weak Blocking Pattern with timing being forecast later. The La Nina pattern will be in full force this year.
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