Winter Storm Warnings are up for Southwest New Jersey, Northern Delaware, and Southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, PA, where Winter Storm Athena is expected to drop 3 – 5″ of snow today through Thursday morning. Slushy accumulations of up to 1″ are likely in Baltimore, and non-accumulating snow will fall as far south as Washington, DC. Athena, the season’s first Nor’easter and first winter storm to get a name under The Weather Channel’s new naming system, is spreading rain and high winds into Southern New Jersey and Eastern Long Island, NY this morning. Winds at buoy 44025, about 40 miles offshore from the coast of Central New Jersey, reached 40 mph, gusting to 49 mph, with a significant wave height of 14′, at noon EST. Winds at Nantucket, MA have gusted as high as 54 mph this morning. Athena is building a storm surge that has already reached 2.2′ at Atlantic City and 1.8′ at New York City as of noon EST. A storm surge of 2 – 3.5′ is likely along the section of coast most heavily damaged by Sandy’s storm surge, and battering waves up to 20′ high will cause moderate beach erosion along much of the New Jersey and New York shoreline. The storm surge will cause minor to moderate flooding during this afternoon’s high tide cycle near 1 pm EST, and again at the next high tide, near 1 am EST Thursday morning. Fortunately, the high tides this week will be some of the lowest of the month, since we are midway between the new moon and full moon. Wind gusts from Athena will likely reach 50 mph along the coasts of New Jersey and Southern Long Island, NY, and could hit 60 mph on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. I expect that Athena’s winds, rains, and wet, heavy snows will cause up to 50,000 new power outages today. As of early Wednesday morning, 676,000 customers were still without power in the wake of Hurricane Sandy (down from a peak of 8.5 million customers.)
Figure 1. Winter Storm Athena as seen at 9:01 am EST November 7, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GSFC.
Figure 2. Predicted storm surge at Sandy Hook, NJ, for Winter Storm Athena, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA’s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning’s 6Z (1 am EDT) run of the GFS model. The peak storm surge (yellowish-brown line) is predicted to be 3.4′, occurring Wednesday evening. High tide (green line) occurs near 1 pm Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a peak storm tide of approximately 7.2′ around 1 pm Wednesday (black line). For comparison, Sandy delivered a 8.6′ storm surge to Sandy Hook before their tide gauge failed, with the storm tide reaching 13.2′ above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water.)
The decision to name Athena
The Weather Channel announced in October that they would begin naming winter storms this year, in an effort to aid in raising awareness and reduce the risks the public faces. One of the main criteria for naming a storm is its impact on populated areas; the meteorology of the storm may not get it named, if the storm doesn’t affect a populated area. If Hurricane Sandy had not devastated the region of coast being affected by today’s Winter Storm Athena, it may not have gotten a name. With so many people still under recovery efforts even well inland, the combination of heavy, wet snow and wind prompted the decision to name Athena. The models have been trending towards more cold air getting pulled into this system, so it is possible Athena could drop heavier snows than currently advertised. The National Weather Service will not be referring to today’s Nor’easter as “Athena”. They put out this internal directive: “The NWS does not use named winter storms in our products. Please refrain from using the term Athena in any of our products.”
Here are the peak wind gusts from Athena as of 11 am EST on Wednesday, November 7, 2012:
Last update: November 7, 2012 at 5:23 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Update 17:34 UTC : The Guatemalan Instituto Nacional de Sismología reports a Magnitude of 7.2 at a depth and mentions a MMI of V at many Guatemalan locations. The earthquake was well felt at Guatemala, Jalapa, Jutiapa, Alta Verapaz, Quetzaltenango, Suchitepéquez, Zacapa, Escuintla and Quiché.
Update 17:26 UTC : Based on the current USGS data, 236000 people will have experienced a very strong shaking (MMI VII). Nearly 2 million people a strong shaking. We will have to wait a little longer to get a better view on the potential damage. The chance on damage cannot be excluded as the location of the epicenter has been relocated closer to the coast.
Update 17:23 UTC : The max. MMI has been increased by USGS from VI to VII (strong increased to very strong shaking). The main risk however is a tsunami risk at the closest shores to the epicenter.
USGS is currently reporting a Magnitude of 7.5 at a depth of 33 km.
Luckily the epicenter is about 20 miles out of the coast which will weaken the shaking a lot.
So far a MMI VI has been reported (strong shaking).
There will certainly have been called a Tsunami alarm as the epicenter was close to the coast.
NOAA stipulates that there is NO tsunami warning for ALASKA/ BRITISH COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA…, which must be a relief for those areas. NOAA Tsunami bulletin We will soon start an in-depth article on this massive earthquake. Update 17:09 UTC : The max. shaking values we have received so far are MMI VI, which is very hopeful (minor damage and injuries expected at these values). The first reports we did receive did locate the epicenter closer to the coast, which is not confirmed by other agencies.
Shaking map courtesy USGS
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 7.4
UTC Time : 2012-11-07 16:35:50 UTC
Local time at epicenter : 2012-11-07 10:35:50 UTC-06:00 at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 41.6 km
Geo-location(s) :
24km (15mi) S of Champerico, Guatemala
55km (34mi) SSW of Retalhuleu, Guatemala
60km (37mi) SSW of San Sebastian, Guatemala
Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with on Wednesday: an early-season Nor’easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the U.S. National Weather Service), are now in agreement on both the track and intensity of the storm. The storm will move off the coast of South Carolina/Georgia on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 2 – 3″ over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, intensifying into a medium-strength Nor’easter with a central pressure of 984 mb by Wednesday evening. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, is slower, predicting the Nor’easter’s highest winds will begin affecting New Jersey on Wednesday night. The GFS model is about 12 hours faster, predicting the strongest winds will arrive on Wednesday morning. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 – 45 mph will likely affect the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts, accompanied by a swath of 2 – 3″ of rain. The heaviest rains will likely fall over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm also has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England. The storm is still four days away, and four-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor’easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor’easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 – 2 foot storm surge with battering waves. The surge and waves will potentially cause moderate to severe erosion on New Jersey coast, where Hurricane Sandy pulverized the protective beach dunes.
Figure 1. Predicted wind speed for Thursday morning, November 8, 2012, from the ECMWF model (left) and predicted wind speed for 2 pm EST on Wednesday, November 7, from the GFS model (right). Both models runs were done beginning at 12Z (8 am EDT) on November 3, 2012. Winds tropical storm-force (39+ mph) are predicted to extend from coastal Virginia to Massachusetts. The GFS model brings the Nor’easter to a point off the New Jersey coast about 12 hours faster than the ECMWF model.
Figure 2. Forecast track error for four of our top models used to predict Hurricane Sandy. The GFS model performed the best for 1 – 3 day forecasts, but the European (ECMWF) model far out-performed all models at longer-range 4 – 5 day forecasts. This may be due to the fact the model was able to successfully predict the timing of the arrival of a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that acted to steer Sandy to the north and then northwest. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Charities mobilize for Sandy
Sandy’s death toll of 109 in the U.S. makes it the 25th deadliest hurricane in U.S. history, and the 2nd deadliest since 1972, when Hurricane Agnes killed 122 in the Northeast U.S. The main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, with all donations to benefit people in the hard-hit areas of the U.S. To have your donation matched, please visit www.redcross.org/sandy, or text SANDY to 90999. I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy needs of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they’re up to. Sandy’s greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I’ve contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.
I’ll have an update Monday, unless there’s some major change in the model forecasts for the coming Nor’easter.
In what should probably surprise no one who has been following the Proposition 37 issue, a California proposal that would require the ingredients in all GM foods to be labeled, the so-called “Big 6″ pesticide corporations have become the movement’s main opponents.
Filings released this week by the California Secretary of State’s office denote that the world’s six largest pesticide corporations have become the six biggest contributors to opponents of Prop 37. In all, they have funneled in excess of $20 million to oppose the measure which, again, would require what should already be happening: the labeling of genetically engineered or modified food. The money has especially funded an aggressive, extensive ad campaign in recent weeks.
“Pesticide corporations like Monsanto continue to enjoy unfettered and unlabeled access to the market, while consumers are left largely in the dark,” said Marcia Ishii-Eiteman, PhD, senior scientist at Pesticide Action Network. “Despite the best efforts of the big six to confuse and distort the issue, Californians have a right to know what’s in their food and how it’s grown.”
The Big 6 – Monsanto, BASF, Bayer, Dow, DuPont and Syngenta – far and away dominate the global seed and pesticide markets; they are actively opposing Prop 37. In filings released recently, each of the corporations “made contributions of at least $2 million, with Monsanto’s contribution alone totaling more than $7 million,” said PAN, in a press release.
What do the Big 6 have to hide?
The opposition really wants Prop. 37 defeated. Including Big 6 donations, so far those committed to defeating it have ponied up in excess of $37 million; they’ve spent $19 million with Sacramento public relations firms and on aggressive television advertising and paid mailings to voters.
But why? Why are companies so opposed to openness and honesty when it comes to allowing consumers the right to know what’s in the GM foods they are buying?
The answer may lie in a comprehensive study released a week ago. According to Dr. Charles Benbrook, who conducted the study using federal government data, the Big 6 likely don’t want you to know that genetically engineered crops drive up the use of dangerous pesticides while they open more markets for them as well (as usual, “follow the money”).
Benbrook found that GM crops have “increased pesticide use by over 400 million pounds in the United States over the past fifteen years,” said the PAN statement.
“Increased pesticide use has led to greater and greater weed resistance. In turn, this has led to more applications of pesticides – as well as use of more hazardous pesticides – in agricultural fields, putting rural communities and farm workers at the greatest risk of harm due to pesticide exposure,” the activist organization said.
More pesticides, more chemicals, more danger
In addition to the use of more pesticides, the control over seeds has also benefited these giant biotech companies – at the expense, of course, of consumers.
“The Big 6 chemical and seed companies are working diligently to monopolize the food system at the expense of consumers, farmers and smaller seed companies,” said Philip H. Howard, an associate professor at Michigan State University and an expert on industry consolidation.
In all, Monsanto alone controls 23 percent of the world’s seed market, while Bayer controls 20 percent of the global pesticide market.
So what’s the big deal, really? Why should GM foods be labeled anyhow?
Probably the biggest reason why is because GMOs – genetically modified organisms – in general were not created by food or agriculture companies. They were created by Monsanto – the same biotech and chemical company that brought us DDT, PCBs and Agent Orange. Monsanto also marketed aspartame and created bovine growth hormone (rBGH) to infect milking cows that put pus into commercial milk.
The immensity of the impact of Superstorm Sandy on the Eastern U.S. is difficult to comprehend, and the scenes of devastation coming from the impact zone are stunning and heart-wrenching. To help understand the extraordinary scale of this historic storm, I’ve put together a list of notable statistics from Sandy:
Death toll: 160 (88 in the U.S., 54 in Haiti, 11 in Cuba)
Damage estimates: $10 – $55 billion
Power outages: 8.5 million U.S. customers, 2nd most for a natural disaster behind the 1993 blizzard (10 million)
Maximum U.S. sustained winds: 69 mph at Westerly, RI
Peak U.S. wind gusts: 90 mph at Islip, NY and Tompkinsville, NJ
Maximum U.S. storm surge: 9.45′, Bergen Point, NJ 9:24 pm EDT October 29, 2012
Maximum U.S. Storm Tide: 14.60′, Bergen Point, NJ, 9:24 pm EDT October 29, 2012
Minimum pressure: 945.5 mb, Atlantic City, NJ at 7:24 pm EST, October 29, 2012. This is the lowest pressure measured in the U.S., at any location north of Cape Hatteras, NC (previous record: 946 mb in the 1938 hurricane on Long Island, NY)
Destructive potential of storm surge: 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6, highest of any hurricane observed since 1969. Previous record: 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003.
Diameter of tropical storm-force winds at landfall: 945 miles
Diameter of ocean with 12′ seas at landfall: 1500 miles
Figure 1. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi NPP satellite acquired this image of Superstorm Sandy around 3:35 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time (7:35 Universal Time) on October 30. This image is from the “day-night band” on VIIRS, which detects light wavelengths from green to near-infrared. The full Moon lit up the tops of the clouds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Preliminary death and damage statistics for Sandy as compiled by Wikipedia on November 1, 2012.
Figure 3. Precipitation from Superstorm Sandy for the 7-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, November 1, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/AHPS.
Figure 4. Top five weather-related power outages in the U.S.
Figure 5. Strong winds from Sandy blow snow in West Virginia on October 30, 2012. Image credit: Facebook/Cheryl Clay
Sandy’s snows
Several cities set records for snowiest October day on record during Sandy: Elkin, WV (7″, previous record, 4.6″ in 1917) and Bluefield (4.7″, previous record 3.2″ in 1993.) Heavy snows caused roof collapses in West Virginia, and snows of two feet or more fell in four states–West Virginia, Tennessee, Maryland, and Virginia. However, Sandy fell short of setting the all-time record for snowfall from a hurricane. The Vermont Journal estimated that the Snow Hurricane of 1804 dumped up to 4 feet of snow in Vermont.
Charities mobilize for Sandy
The outpouring of charitable donations in the wake of the devastation wrought by Hurricane Sandy has been one of the bright spots in the gloomy aftermath of the storm. The main owners of The Weather Channel have agreed to match donations of up to $1 million to the American Red Cross, if you text SANDY to 90999 ($10). I also recommend my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org. They are focusing their response efforts exclusively on the post-Sandy neeeds of people with disabilities.Check out the Portlight blog to see what they’re up to; donations are always needed.
Sandy’s greatest devastation occurred in Haiti, where rains of up to 20 inches in 24 hours unleashed rampaging flood waters that killed at least 54, left 200,000 homeless, wiped out thousand of acres of crops, and killed massive numbers of livestock. For impoverished families in Haiti still struggling to recover from the earthquake in 2010 and Hurricane Isaac in August, Sandy was devastating. These crops are the very essence of rural Haitian’s livelihoods, and there are fears widespread starvation will result. A disaster relief charity in Haiti that I’ve contributed to for many years, The Lambi Fund of Haiti, is seeking donations to help farmers purchase local seeds so that they can replant their crops in the wake of this latest terrible Haitian catastrophe.
We’re used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy is a shocking experience. New Jersey only rarely gets hit by hurricanes because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn’t stick out much, and is too far north. How did this happen? How was a hurricane able to move from southeast to northwest at landfall, so far north, and so late in hurricane season? We expect hurricanes to move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, flowing predominately west-to-east, due to the spin of the Earth. Hurricanes that penetrate to about Florida’s latitude usually get caught up in these westerly winds, and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more to the north or to the south. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it. These “negatively tilted” troughs have winds that flow from southeast to northwest. It is this sort of negatively tilted trough that sucked in Sandy and allowed the hurricane to take such an unusual path into New Jersey.
Figure 1. Inlet section of Atlantic City, N.J., after Hurricane Sandy. Image credit: 6 ABC Action News.
The 1903 Vagabond Hurricane
The only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851 besides Sandy was the 1903 Category 1 Vagabond Hurricane. According to Wikipedia, the Vagabond Hurricane caused heavy damage along the New Jersey coast ($180 million in 2006 dollars.) The hurricane killed 57 people, and endangered the life of President Theodore Roosevelt, who was sailing on a yacht near Long Island, NY, when the hurricane hit. However, the Vagabond Hurricane hit in September, when the jet stream is typically weaker and farther to the north. It is quite extraordinary that Sandy was able to hit New Jersey in late October, when the jet stream is typically stronger and farther south, making recurvature to the northeast much more likely than in September.
Figure 2. The path of the 1903 Vagabond Hurricane, the only other hurricane to hit New Jersey since 1851.
The blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey
A strong ridge of high pressure parked itself over Greenland beginning on October 20, creating a “blocking ridge” that prevented the normal west-to-east flow of winds over Eastern North America. Think of the blocking ridge like a big truck parked over Greenland. Storms approaching from the west (like the fall low pressure system that moved across the U.S. from California to Pennsylvania last week) or from the south (Hurricane Sandy) were blocked from heading to the northeast. Caught in the equivalent of an atmospheric traffic jam, the two storms collided over the Northeast U.S., combined into one, and are now waiting for the truck parked over Greenland to move. The strength of the blocking ridge, as measured by the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), was quite high–about two standard deviations from average, something that occurs approximately 5% of the time. When the NAO is in a strong negative phase, we tend to have blocking ridges over Greenland.
Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Arctic sea ice loss can cause blocking ridges
Blocking ridges occur naturally, but are uncommon over Greenland this time of year. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, blocking near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall. These odds rise to about 6% in winter and spring. As I discussed in an April post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record lows. Could sea ice loss have contributed to the blocking ridge that steered Sandy into New Jersey? It is possible, but we will need to much more research on the subject before we make such a link, as the studies of sea ice loss on jet stream patterns are so new. The author of one of the new studies, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers, had this say in a recent post by Andy Revkin in his Dot Earth blog:“While it’s impossible to say how this scenario might have unfolded if sea-ice had been as extensive as it was in the 1980s, the situation at hand is completely consistent with what I’d expect to see happen more often as a result of unabated warming and especially the amplification of that warming in the Arctic.”
A small British company has produced the first “petrol from air” using a revolutionary technology that promises to solve the energy crisis as well as helping to curb global warming by removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Air Fuel Synthesis in Stockton-on-Tees has produced five litres of petrol since August when it switched on a small refinery that manufactures gasoline from carbon dioxide and water vapour.
The company hopes that within two years it will build a larger, commercial-scale plant capable of producing a ton of petrol a day. It also plans to produce green aviation fuel to make airline travel more carbon-neutral.
Tim Fox, head of energy and the environment at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers in London, said: “It sounds too good to be true, but it is true. They are doing it and I’ve been up there myself and seen it. The innovation is that they have made it happen as a process. It’s a small pilot plant capturing air and extracting CO2 from it based on well known principles. It uses well-known and well-established components but what is exciting is that they have put the whole thing together and shown that it can work.”
Although the process is still in the early developmental stages and needs to take electricity from the national grid to work, the company believes it will eventually be possible to use power from renewable sources such as wind farms or tidal barrages.
“We’ve taken carbon dioxide from air and hydrogen from water and turned these elements into petrol,” said Peter Harrison, the company’s chief executive, who revealed the breakthrough at a conference at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers in London.
“There’s nobody else doing it in this country or indeed overseas as far as we know. It looks and smells like petrol but it’s a much cleaner and clearer product than petrol derived from fossil oil,” Mr Harrison told The Independent.
“We don’t have any of the additives and nasty bits found in conventional petrol, and yet our fuel can be used in existing engines,” he said.
“It means that people could go on to a garage forecourt and put our product into their car without having to install batteries or adapt the vehicle for fuel cells or having hydrogen tanks fitted. It means that the existing infrastructure for transport can be used,” Mr Harrison said.
Being able to capture carbon dioxide from the air, and effectively remove the principal industrial greenhouse gas resulting from the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal, has been the holy grail of the emerging green economy.
Using the extracted carbon dioxide to make petrol that can be stored, transported and used as fuel for existing engines takes the idea one step further. It could transform the environmental and economic landscape of Britain, Mr Harrison explained.
“We are converting renewable electricity into a more versatile, useable and storable form of energy, namely liquid transport fuels. We think that by the end of 2014, provided we can get the funding going, we can be producing petrol using renewable energy and doing it on a commercial basis,” he said.
“We ought to be aiming for a refinery-scale operation within the next 15 years. The issue is making sure the UK is in a good place to be able to set up and establish all the manufacturing processes that this technology requires. You have the potential to change the economics of a country if you can make your own fuel,” he said.
The initial plan is to produce petrol that can be blended with conventional fuel, which would suit the high-performance fuels needed in motor sports. The technology is also ideal for remote communities that have abundant sources of renewable electricity, such solar energy, wind turbines or wave energy, but little in the way of storing it, Mr Harrison said.
“We’re talking to a number of island communities around the world and other niche markets to help solve their energy problems.
“You’re in a market place where the only way is up for the price of fossil oil and at some point there will be a crossover where our fuel becomes cheaper,” he said.
Although the prototype system is designed to extract carbon dioxide from the air, this part of the process is still too inefficient to allow a commercial-scale operation.
The company can and has used carbon dioxide extracted from air to make petrol, but it is also using industrial sources of carbon dioxide until it is able to improve the performance of “carbon capture”.
Other companies are working on ways of improving the technology of carbon capture, which is considered far too costly to be commercially viable as it costs up to £400 for capturing one ton of carbon dioxide.
However, Professor Klaus Lackner of Columbia University in New York said that the high costs of any new technology always fall dramatically.
“I bought my first CD in the 1980s and it cost $20 but now you can make one for less than 10 cents. The cost of a light bulb has fallen 7,000-fold during the past century,” Professor Lackner said.
Massive and dangerous Hurricane Sandy has grown to record size as it barrels northeastwards along the North Carolina coast at 10 mph. At 8 am EDT, Sandy’s tropical storm-force winds extended northeastwards 520 miles from the center, and twelve-foot high seas covered a diameter of ocean 1,030 miles across. Since records of storm size began in 1988, no tropical storm or hurricane has been larger (though Hurricane Olga of 2001 had a larger 690 mile radius of tropical storm-force winds when it was a subtropical storm near Bermuda.) Sandy has put an colossal volume of ocean water in motion with its widespread and powerful winds, and the hurricane’s massive storm surge is already impacting the coast. A 2′ storm surge has been recorded at numerous locations this morning from Virginia to Connecticut, including a 3′ surge at Virginia’s Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel and Sewells Point at 9 am EDT. Huge, 10 – 15 foot-high battering waves on top of the storm surge have washed over Highway 12 connecting North Carolina’s Outer Banks to the mainland at South Nags Head this morning. The highway is now impassable, and has been closed. The coast guard station on Cape Hatteras, NC, recorded sustained winds of 50 mph, gusting to 61 mph, at 5:53 am EDT this morning. In Delaware, the coastal highway Route 1 between Dewey Beach and Bethany Beach has been closed due to high water. Even though Sandy is a minimal Category 1 hurricane, its storm surge is extremely dangerous, and if you are in a low-lying area that is asked to evacuate, I strongly recommend that you leave.
Figure 1. A fright to behold: morning satellite image of massive Hurricane Sandy.
Sandy’s death toll now at 65
Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, the storm’s death toll now stands at 65. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 51 deaths. Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe told the Associated Press that “This is a disaster of major proportions. The whole south is under water.” Approximately 8 – 10″ of rain (200 – 250 mm) fell in the capital of Port-au-Prince. Eleven people were killed in Cuba, where 35,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in Puerto Rico, and 1 in the Bahamas.
Figure 2. A resident carries a metal sheet from a house after heavy rains damaged by Hurricane Sandy in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012. Sandy is being blamed for 51 deaths in Haiti. (AP Photo/Dieu Nalio Chery)
Figure 3. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts from NASA’s TRMM satellite show that portions of Haiti received over 12.75″ (325 mm) of rain (pink colors) from Hurricane Sandy. The capital of Port-au-Prince received 8 – 10″ (200 – 250 mm.) Image credit: NASA.
Intensity and Track Forecast for Sandy
Sandy has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center. Most of the storm’s heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm’s west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane. Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is no longer exposed to view, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing in areal extent near the center, due to a reduction in wind shear from 35 – 40 knots last night to 25 – 30 knots this morning. Wind shear is expected to drop another 5 knots today, which may allow the storm to build an increased amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center and intensify by 5 – 10 mph over the next 24 hours. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters noted this morning that Sandy had a partial eyewall on the west through SE sides of the center, and the storm may be able to build a nearly complete eyewall by Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, though, Sandy will be moving over cool 25°C waters, which should slow down this intensification process. However, the trough of low pressure that will be pulling Sandy to the northwest towards landfall on Monday will strengthen the storm by injecting “baroclinic” energy–the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy should have sustained winds at hurricane force, 75 – 80 mph, at landfall. Sandy’s central pressure is expected to drop from its current 951 mb to 945 – 950 mb at landfall Monday night. A pressure this low is extremely rare; according to wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the lowest pressure ever measured anywhere in the U.S. north of Cape Hatteras, NC, is 946 mb (27.94″) measured at the Bellport Coast Guard Station on Long Island, NY on September 21, 1938 during the great “Long Island Express” hurricane. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in agreement that Sandy will make landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning in New Jersey.
Figure 4. Predicted maximum storm surge from Hurricane Irene. There is a 10% chance that the storm surge could exceed the heights given here, so most regions will receive a surge lower than this forecast. The greatest surge is expected in the waters surrounding New York City, since the shape of the bays will act to funnel the water to higher levels.
Sandy’s storm surge a huge threat
Last night’s 9:30 pm EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy’s winds at a modest 2.6 on a scale of 0 to 6. However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.7 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is a higher destructive potential than any hurricane observed between 1969 – 2005, including Category 5 storms like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Camille, and Andrew. The previous highest destructive potential for storm surge was 5.6 on a scale of 0 to 6, set during Hurricane Isabel of 2003. Sandy is now forecast to bring a near-record storm surge of 6 – 11 feet to Northern New Jersey and Long Island Sound, including the New York City Harbor. While Sandy’s storm surge will be nowhere near as destructive as Katrina’s, the storm surge does have the potential to cause many billions of dollars in damage if it hits near high tide at 9 pm EDT on Monday. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical high tide will be about 5% higher than the average high tide for the month. This will add another 2 – 3″ to water levels. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the peak storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. Sandy’s storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13′ to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 – 12″ shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from NHC, Sandy’s storm surge is expected to be several feet higher than Irene’s. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening’s high tide at 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City’s subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 50% chance that Sandy’s storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.
An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, “New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn” quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, “subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power,” he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.”
Sandy’s winds
Sandy will bring sustained winds of tropical storm-force to a 1000-mile swath of coast on Monday and Tuesday. Winds of 55 – 75 mph with gusts over hurricane force will occur along a 500 mile-wide section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for several billion dollars in wind damage. A power outage computer model run by Johns Hopkins University predicts that 10 million people will lose power from the storm.
Sandy’s rains
Sandy’s heavy rains are going to cause major but probably not catastrophic river flooding. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 5) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 6), Sandy’s are expected to be about 30% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene’s heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th – 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 3 – 6 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is probably not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.
Figure 5. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Friday morning, November 2, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Figure 6. Actual rainfall for 2011’s Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy’s rains are predicted to be about 30% less than Irene’s. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.
Sandy’s snows
You can add heavy snow to the list of weather frights coming for the Eastern U.S. from Sandy. A WInter Storm Watch is posted for much of southeastern West Virginia for Sunday night through Monday, when 2 – 6 inches of wet, heavy snow is expected to fall at elevations below 2000 feet. At higher elevation above 3,000 feet, 1 – 2 feet of snow is possible. With high wind gusts of 35 – 45 mph and many trees still in leaf, the affected area can expect plenty of tree damage and power outages. Lesser snows are expected in the mountains of Virginia, Tennessee, and North Carolina.
Sandy’s tornado threat is minimal
The severe thunderstorm and tornado threat from Sandy Sunday and Monday looks low, due to minimal instability.
Links for Sandy
To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes.
People with disabilities and caregivers seeking information on accessible shelter and transportation can contact portlight.org
An impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of Sandy today is at the CSU RAMMB website.
This impressive 1-min GOES loop beginning at dawn Saturday shows Sandy’s heavy thunderstorms fighting against high wind shear, and the tilt of the vortex to the northeast with height.
The National Hurricane Center’s Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.
Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.
Figure 7. Tide gauge in Kahului, Maui, Hawaii, showing the 2.5′ tsunami that hit at approximately 09 UTC Sunday, October 29, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Three-foot tsunami his Hawaii after big quake in Canada
A major magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit 25 miles (40 km) south of Sandspit, British Columbia last night at 8:04 pm PDT. The quake generated a tsunami that raced across the Pacific Ocean and struck Hawaii six hours later. The tsunami reached a height of 2.5 feet in Kahului, Maui, 1.2′ at Hilo, and 0.5′ in Honolulu. The earthquake was Canada’s third largest since 1900. The last stronger quake was a magnitude 7.9 that hit in 1958. The other stronger quake was a magnitude 8.1 that hit in 1949, with an epicenter very close to last night’s trembler.
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 7,7
UTC Time : 2012-10-28 03:04:08 UTC
Local time at epicenter : 2012-10-27 20:04:08 UTC-07:00 at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 17.5 km
Geo-location(s) :
139km (86mi) S of Masset, Canada
199km (124mi) SSW of Prince Rupert, Canada
288km (179mi) SW of Terrace, Canada
551km (342mi) NW of Campbell River, Canada
636km (395mi) SSE of Juneau, Alaska
2012-10-28 17:00 UTC
– THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ENDED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0358 AM HST.
– All the advisories have now been ended
– Luckily, there is NO report of damage from British Columbia
2012-10-28 13:31 UTC
– Tsunami advisory is still in effect in Hawaii. We do not think big changes will occur, but people should at least stay away from the shoreline for at least several hours and until all advisories are cleared (can take many more hours)
2012-10-28 12:05 UTC
THE TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII. A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 1254 AM HST.
…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS CANCELED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM GUALALA POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80
MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…
THE TSUNAMI THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/ OREGON OR CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER… SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE NON-DAMAGING SEA LEVEL CHANGES. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATIONS MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
2012-10-28 10:53 UTC THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM GUALALA POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER…
2012-10-28 10:44 UTC
– The max. tsunami waves so far measured at Hawaii are 76 cm high at Kahului (Maui) (still less than expected by the weather channel). These are the most readings so far :
The video below is a very interesting interview with a scientists from NOAA. He is giving a lot of info on the tsunami waves and their behaviour in Hawaii.
2012-10-28 10:27 UTC CBC Canada reports that Dennis Sinnott (Canadian Institute of Ocean Science) said that a 69-centimetre wave was recorded off Langara Island on the northeast tip of Haida Gwaii, formerly called the Queen Charlotte Islands. The islands are home to about 5,000 people, many of them members of the Haida aboriginal group.
Another 55-centimetre wave hit Winter Harbour on the northeast coast of Vancouver Island, while a 12-centimetre wave was recorded in Tofino, on Vancouver Island’s west coast.
2012-10-28 09:46 UTC TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATUS IS CANCELLED FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND OREGON. TSUNAMI ADVISORY STATUS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
2012-10-28 09:46 UTC Tsunami waves have reached parts of Hawaii. The Tsunami warning remains in effect.
Here are the first readings :
Image courtesy NOAA
2012-10-28 08:51 UTC – NO CHANGES IN THE CURRENT SITUATION
2012-10-28 08:26 UTC – Tsunami warning remains in effect for Hawaii (expected arrival time 10:28 PM)
2012-10-28 07:54 UTC
THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR SE ALASKA AND CONTINUES FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
2012-10-28 07:27 UTC
– The earthquake has been felt as far as Edmonton, Canada which is … 1700 km east of the epicenter
– Hawaii keeps his breath for eventual tsunami waves or currents
– A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE.
THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN.
EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER.
SIMULTANEOUS HIGH TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.
2012-10-28 06:57 UTC
– The WeatherChannel reports that parts of Hawaii may see waves heights as much as 7 feet. Waikiki coast has been asked to evacuate. If the weather channel is correct, this will be a serious current heading for Hawaii
– NOAA Hawaii Tsunami report nr 5 states that :
A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII. THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS : 1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012
2012-10-28 06:57 UTC
– No change in advisory and warning areas in Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 8
THE ADVISORY REGIONS ARE KEPT THE SAME. NEW OBSERVATIONS ARE ADDED BELOW
…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/…
…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/…
…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/…
…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER…
…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA…
2012-10-28 06:22 UTC
– Tsunami warning downgraded to advisory for British Columbia and Alaska
Most important elements of Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 7 :
THE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY FOR SE ALASKA AND NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. MORE OBSERVATIONS ARE INCLUDED BELOW.
…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/…
…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA…
…THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/…
…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/…
…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER…
…THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA…
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE. PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
– IF IN A TSUNAMI ADVISORY COASTAL AREA MOVE OUT OF THE WATER… OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.
Tsunami gauge measurements at various stations :
2012-10-28 06:19 UTC
– Hawaii tsunami report nr. 4 states : A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.
EVALUATION
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.
A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.
THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS 1028 PM HST SAT 27 OCT 2012
2012-10-28 06:10 UTC
– The earthquake occurred 2 hours ago and various tsunami warnings and advisories are still in effect for the greater earthquake and coastal areas.
– At Langara (northern point of Haida Gwaii (epicenter island), a tsunami surge has been measured of 44 cm)
– At Hawaii the wave is estimated to arrive at 10:28 PM local time
– For those among you interested to look at live webcams, we have found a live broadcasting webcam from Hawaii – Click here to watch it. A surge of less than 1 meter will be hard to see in the dark. Some stirring water (shaking boats) are a possibility. We hear the Tsunami warning sirens howling at the webcam. Great initiative from this webcam owner to do the live streaming !
2012-10-28 05:55 UTC – Tsunami warning and advisory overview – Warning effective for British Columbia, Alaska and Hawaii
– Advisory (1 level less than warning) for some parts of Washington, Oregon and California (see below)
What to do : if you are living at coastal areas, move to higher ground
IMPORTANT UPDATE 2012-10-28 05:48 UTC
ALASKA Tsunami Center report nr. 6
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON.
...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...
...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS MODIFIED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL
AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON FROM GUALALA POINT
CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/ TO
DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/...
...THE TSUNAMI ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH
COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND
BRITISH COLUMBIA...
...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO GUALALA
POINT CALIFORNIA/LOCATED 80 MILES NW OF SAN FRANCISCO/...
...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM DOUGLAS-LANE COUNTY LINE
OREGON/10 MILES SW OF FLORENCE/ TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH
COLUMBIA BORDER...
...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGE
TO THE WARNING AND/OR ADVISORY REGIONS LISTED IN THE HEADLINE.
PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS
ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
- IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO
HIGHER GROUND.
- IF IN A TSUNAMI ADVISORY COASTAL AREA MOVE OUT OF
THE WATER... OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF HARBORS AND MARINAS.
2012-10-28 05:40 UTC
– What occurred today is a typical subduction earthquake. the stress accumulates from the eastward moving Pacific plate subducting below the North American plate generates this kind of very powerful earthquakes.
2012-10-28 05:32 UTC Tsunami advisory (no warning) extended to the border area of Washington state
The most relevant parts of the Alaska Tsunami Center report nr. 5 (continental USA and Canada)
THE WARNING ZONES REMAIN THE SAME IN THIS MESSAGE.
AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA-
SOUTH OF THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...
...A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE
COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...
...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA - OREGON AND WASHINGTON FROM THE
CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE WASHINGTON-BRITISH COLUMBIA
BORDER...
...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...
2012-10-28 05:24 UTC A TSUNAMI WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 0709 PM HST.
THIS UPGRADE IS DUE TO THE SEA LEVEL READINGS RECEIVED AND THE RESULTING CHANGE IN THE HAWAII TSUNAMI FORECAST.
2012-10-28 05:22 UTC
– Haida Gwaii (former Queen Charlotte Islands and epicenter of the earthquake) reports to Canadian Broadcasting that some homes have been damaged
2012-10-28 05:19 UTC
– More aftershocks are being reported. They however are less than M5, which is a good sign.
– The occurrence of a similar or even bigger earthquake than the mainshock cannot be excluded but happens very rarely.
– Earthquake-report.com does thank our many Alaska and British Colombia readers who have shared their experience with our site. Earthquake reporting can be only complete in the case of a interaction with those who felt the shaking
2012-10-28 05:07 UTC Alaska Tsunami center report nr. 5 – Tsunami alert is still in place THE WARNING ZONES REMAIN THE SAME IN THIS MESSAGE. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA- SOUTH OF THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND.
2012-10-28 05:02 UTC
Some relevant tweets our Carlos Robles has intercepted
– “We were just sitting down relaxing and all of a sudden — boom! I thought it was a major landslide,” said Martynuik. “The epicentre had to be right close to us because the power went out right away. The quake seemed to last forever.”
– Tsunami ….”apparently” Sandspit got a 8 ft rise .
– CBC LeishaGrebinski just spoke w/ Ted Renaud on Langara Isl. He said quake was strong, they just exp. a swell expect another one in 20 mins
2012-10-28 04:52 UTC
Report number 4 from the Alaska tsunami center :
THE TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED WITH SMALL AMPLITUDES IN SE ALASKA. FORECASTS INDICATE HEIGHTS IN S CENTRAL ALASKA BELOW 30CM. THE WARNING AREA REMAINS THE SAME.
2012-10-28 04:50 UTC
– The tsunami evacuation seems to work well at the moment. A lot of people (ut limited in number) have been called to evacuate for higher ground and did so in the meanwhile
– The epicenter of the 3 M5+ aftershocks is heading more to the coast. No aftershock of M6 or more so far
2012-10-28 04:46 UTC
– We repeat that the Tsunami alert is only called for portions of the British Columbia and Alaska coast. Hawaii and the greater Pacific basin have NO alert issued.
– Pacofi and Lockeport, Canada are the locations which may get tsunami waves of respectively 1.7 and 1.5 meter. Other locations are expected to get a max. of 0.3 m. (source info + graphic below : GDACS)
2012-10-28 04:40 UTC
As soon as the Tsunami alert is canceled, we will bring the news to our readers.
The tsunami alert will only affect a limited number of people. Tsunami level calculations are extremely difficult as the wave height can be different for every portion of the coast depending on the coastal floor.
2012-10-28 04:32 UTC
Some press reports are stating that the quake was not felt in Vancouver, which does not correspond with the reports we have received from our readers (see below).
2012-10-28 04:24 UTC
Based on the reports below, the shaking lasted 30 seconds to a minute, a normal shaking time for such a huge earthquake
2012-10-28 04:18 UTC
The Alaska tsunami center has just issued a third report which keeps the tsunami warning as it was mentioned before. These are the most important elements of this report :
A SMALL TSUNAMI HAS BEEN RECORDED ON A DEEP OCEAN PRESSURE SENSOR. THE WARNING REGION REMAINS THE SAME IN THIS BULLETIN.
...THE TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION
ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/...
...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
CALIFORNIA - OREGON - WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM
THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA...
...THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF
SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA...
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO
INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS
ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES.
- IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER
GROUND.
2012-10-28 04:13 UTC – Except for the Tsunami danger, the dangerous shaking impact will be limited to approx. 2000 people who will have sustained a MMI VII, very strong shaking experience.
– 18000 people will have felt a strong MMI VI shaking and another 186000 people a moderate shaking.
– Please find the experiences of people below this page
Shaking intensities (image courtesy USGS)
2012-10-28 04:00 UTC – About 2000 people are living within 100 km from the epicenter
– A considerable number of strong aftershocks have been striking the epicenter area
2012-10-28 03:53 UTC – People living in coastal areas along British Colombia and Alaska should better be going for higher ground. Tsunami calculations are far from perfect and a auto-safety move for higher ground is always preferable.
– The area is merely unpopulated and the closest populated settlements are quite far from the epicenter.
– Haida Gwaii is a National Park, but should be almost without visitors at this time of the year.
2012-10-28 03:45 UTC – Another agency, GDACS who is using data from USGS reports that : It is likely that a tsunami was generated. The maximum tsunami wave height near the coast of Lockeport will be 1.66m.
GDACS Tsunami expectation – max. tsunami height 1.66 m
2012-10-28 03:44 UTC – THE MAGNITUDE IS UPDATED TO 7.7. THE WARNING ZONE REMAINS THE SAME.
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1 NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK 807 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012 …A TSUNAMI WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA FROM THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/… …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF CALIFORNIA – OREGON – WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER TO THE NORTH TIP OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BRITISH COLUMBIA… …THIS MESSAGE IS INFORMATION ONLY FOR COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM CAPE DECISION ALASKA/LOCATED 85 MILES SE OF SITKA/ TO ATTU ALASKA… RECOMMENDED ACTIONS PEOPLE IN LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INSTRUCTIONS FROM THEIR LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS. EVACUATIONS ARE ONLY ORDERED BY EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCIES. – IF IN A TSUNAMI WARNING COASTAL AREA MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND. PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS MAGNITUDE – 7.1 TIME – 1904 AKDT OCT 27 2012 2004 PDT OCT 27 2012 0304 UTC OCT 28 2012 LOCATION – 52.9 NORTH 131.9 WEST 25 MILES/40 KM S OF SANDSPIT BRITISH COLUMBIA 390 MILES/628 KM SE OF JUNEAU ALASKA DEPTH – 12 MILES/19 KM TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD INUNDATION IS IMMINENT… EXPECTED OR OCURRING. WARNINGS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING ACCOMPANIED BY POWERFUL CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AND MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE ARRIVAL. PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA/ OREGON/ WASHINGTON/ BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES FOR INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.
Rubble from a collapse house covered a car after the 2009 l’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Image: Alessandro Giangiulio / Flickr.
By this time, many of you have seen the verdict for the people on trial over the 2009 l’Aquila earthquake. Judge Marco Billi sentenced the seven scientists, engineers and officials to 6 years in prison – 2 years more than the prosecution suggested – over the manslaughter charges stemming from the earthquake that killed over 300 people. The trial has been a flashpoint for geoscientists as many have seen it as a trial over the idea that geologists should be able to “predict” earthquakes. This is somewhat misleading as the prosecution was actually claiming the seven on trial were accused of “having carried out a superficial analysis of seismic risk and of having provided false reassurances to the public.” This doesn’t mean they got a “prediction” wrong, but rather that they didn’t fully understand the risk for l’Aquila, thus put people’s lives in danger. However, this whole trial, in its misguided attempt to find someone to blame for a blameless geologic event, sends the wrong message about how to deal with hazard assessment and mitigation.
Now, I’m not going to rehash the whole trial – you can see some excellent summaries in Nature News and The New York Times. However, let’s get this straight. Say what you will about whether the seven adequately did their job in mitigating against the disaster, but convicting them of manslaughter? That is what makes this case so egregious. If you look up a definition of manslaughter (and it varies from country to country), this likely falls under the criminally negligent variety, where “a defendant intentionally puts himself in a position where he will be unaware of facts which would render him liable.” This suggests that the seven on trial caused the 308 deaths from the l’Aquila earthquake by ignoring the facts presented. People who survived the earthquake and the prosecution claim that the scientists should have known a large earthquake was coming because there had been many small earthquakes that preceded it (so-called “foreshocks“, which have not been proven to be predictive of a larger earthquake). However, the scientists and officials instead said that the earthquakes were releasing energy on local faults, reducing the threat of an earthquake. Chris Rowan does a great job explaining why both of these positions are wrong. It all boils down to the idea of what could actually be deduced from the facts in hand. Should government officials and scientists have proclaimed that an earthquake would occur in days when no data existed that confirmed this? (And no, saying that the earthquake did occur is not evidence – that is hindsight.)
So, we’re back in the same quandry we often find ourselves when it comes to geologic hazard mitigation – prediction versus probability. Indeed, the city of l’Aquila does lie in a region of high seismic hazard for Italy. This was not a fact that was hidden from the public by government officials – in fact, most people who live in Italy should know that earthquakes are not uncommon across the country. However, even with swarms of small earthquakes, there is no way that any seismologist could say that yes, a large earthquake will happen within a week*. That is the realm of prediction. Alternatively, they should not rule out the possibility that a large earthquake could occur in a region of high seismic hazard. So, the answer is, yes, at some point, a large earthquake will occur here. It isn’t satisfying, but it is what the data will bear. However, that isn’t what people want to hear. They want to know “should I leave my house tomorrow? Tuesday?” Without such an imposed deadline, many times the perceived threat just fades into the background of everyday life, like car accidents or fires.
Why did this trial occur if the science really says there wasn’t anything that could be done? I think it is clearly so that people can have someone to blame. The 7 on trial did say something that can be perceived as reassuring mere days before the tragedy, so clearly, they are the reason those 308 people died. Have a big, flashy show trial and charge them with something frightful. Now, that’ll get people’s attention and solve this problem … forever! Of course it won’t – in fact, it might make proper hazard assessment and discussion even more difficult in Italy because people will be afraid that if they get it wrong, they too will go to prison. It might lead to more “false positives” that erode the public’s confidence in the ability to judge the hazard risk in areas around the country. You’ve create a situation where hazard geoscientists are caught between a literal rock and a hard place – don’t emphasize enough and something happens, you go to prison; overemphasize and cause panic, you lose the public’s trust. I hope this doesn’t lead to a culture of “geologic malpractice”, where any discussion of hazards and mitigation are scrutinized after the fact so that lawyers can go after whomever they want to place the blame. Even more startling, there are threats that the Italian government will cut the positions of many scientists in the INGV who are monitoring active volcanoes and other hazards, leaving the country even more vulnerable. It is a perfect recipe for an epic tragedy to occur.
If you do live in a region of high geologic hazard, then you should be prepared for such eventualities, and if you can’t make the preparations, then you should be making sure your government does. By that I mean infrastructure improvements, emergency planning and response, evacuation plans – all the things that you, personally, can’t tackle. You can prepare your home and family as much as you can, but there has to be buy-in across all levels. However, when it comes down to it, a lot of the responsibility falls on the public to be better educated about the hazards they face. Some of that needs to come from the officials and scientists in charge – better outreach, clearer statements, more research – but some of this needs to come from the grassroots where children learn science and hazards. I do know one thing: Witch hunts to find someone to blame for a tragedy have never brought anyone back.
* It is sad that this case also involves the charlatans who claim to be able to “predict” earthquakes. If Giampaolo Giuliani hadn’t bandied about his unsubstantiated claims about radon being used to predict the earthquake – which caused undue panic and uncertainty that the government tried to quell – would these seven be potentially headed to jail?
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