Very Strong earthquake in a sparsely populated Siberia area (Sakha Republic), Russia
Last update: February 14, 2013 at 4:20 pm by By Armand Vervaeck
134km (83mi) WSW of Druzhina, Serbia
860km (534mi) NE of Markha, Russia
866km (538mi) NE of Yakutsk, Russia
979km (608mi) NNW of Magadan, Russia
2973km (1847mi) NNE of Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.6
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-02-15 01:13:53
GMT/UTC Time : 2013-02-14 13:13:53
Depth (Hypocenter) : 14 km
Update 15:07 UTC:
The Russian department of emergencies has said that NO damage and/or injuries were reported. The towns in the greater area (some very far away) have either not felt it or have no damage. Earthquake-report.com will continue to monitor the situation and will report if necessary.
Update 15:07 UTC: Let’s hope that the Russians are as good as the Chinese in making their assessment of the epicenter area. The chance that we will not find any reports from this area is rather high.
Update 14:45 UTC: More precise population data comes from GDACS. This confirms that with the new data (M6.6) , only very few people will have felt a very strong to strong shaking. Radius 20 to 75 km : less than 1000 people. Within a 20 km radius : NO people
Great image courtesy Yuri Klaver from a river bed near today’s epicenter. The bended geological layers are telling the history of this area.
Update 14:28 UTC: USGS has decreased the Magnitude to M6.6, a lot weaker than the initially reported M6.9
Update 14:16 UTC: So far, we have no information of any village or settlement in the surrounding area of the epicenter. That’s good. No village means no damage and no fatalities. But of course it is too early to be sure about it.
Chinese authorities are specifying this earthquake with M 7,3. But in this case we trust USGS data the most as the same magnitude is given by Geofon and EMSC.
No, this is not a painting which hangs in MOMA, but the river Indigirka crisscrossing the landscape in the greater epicenter area
Update 14:00 UTC: The closest larger town to the epicenter is Markha (11,000 inhabitants). It is located at 862 km southwest of the epicenter. The earthquake was probably not felt there. This shows how little people living in this area, what is a good sign.
Update 13:53 UTC: Based on theoretical models, 2.000 people will have felt a moderate shaking.
An M6.9 earthquake hit the northeastern part of Siberia today. USGS reports a depth of 10 km. Due to the shallow depth, USGS expects a very strong shaking (MMI VIII) close to the epicenter area. Luckily this area is unpopulated. Nevertheless, this earthquake should be extremely dangerous if people would live within an area of 50 km from the epicenter.
There are no towns or villages with more than 1.000 inhabitants in the area of strong to very strong shaking, as USGS says.
for more information and updates, go to: http://earthquake-report.com/2013/02/14/very-strong-earthquake-eastern-siberia-russia-on-february-14-2013/
The forested dacite domes of Cerro Machín, nested within an older caldera. Pyroclastic flow deposits from Machín have been traced upwards of 40 kilometers from their source at the volcano. Image: INGEOMINAS, taken November 16, 2011.
I like to keep close tabs on the volcanoes in Colombia — with half of my family living in the country, it seems only appropriate. Some of my first volcanic memories are of seeing firsthand some of the lahar deposits at Nevado del Ruiz from the 1985 eruption. Now, at that time, only two Colombian volcanoes really made any noise: Galeras in the south near Pasto and the aforementioned Ruiz in central Colombia. Nowadays, thanks to increased monitoring on Colombian volcanoes by INGEOMINAS, we know a lot more about the restless nature of the volcanoes of the South American country. Five volcanoes are now on elevated alert status, meaning that they show some level of activity that could lead to an eruption: Ruiz, Galeras, Cumbal, Sotará, Huila and Machín.
Over the past week, Cerro Machín, a dacite dome complex to the to the south Ruiz near Ibagué, has been feeling some increased seismicity. The INGEOMINAS special bulletin details a M2.9 earthquake that occurred at a depth of ~4.7 km beneath the volcano that was felt by local residents. This was part of a swarm that produced over 210 earthquakes in a few hours on February 10 — all within 2 and 5 km depth, but all very small. Now, before you need to get too nervous about this activity, INGEOMINAS rightly points out that these swarms have occurred before at Machin and that sensitive new seismometers are likely to notice this type of activity that might not have been noticed in the past. Not a lot to see, but in the small chance that Machín does get more active, the Observatorio Manizales has a webcam pointed at the volcano. Machín’s last known eruption was over 800 years ago.
Right now, the most active volcano in Colombia is still Nevado del Ruiz. The volcano is still experiencing elevated seismicity, along with a ~950 meter steam plume that occasionally has minor ash as well — which can be seen via webcam, weather permitting.
Exceptionally strong shallow earthquake along the border of Nevada and California
Last update: February 13, 2013 at 9:12 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update 09:12 UTC : Earthquakes and (expected) shaking intensities are not an exact science as you can see by comparing both images below. The population exposure is the theoretical map of the intensities as expected by USGS. Mammoth Lakes and Bishop are just falling in the MMI II radius (very weak shaking), which should have been hardly felt in these towns. But … people have felt this earthquake in a far wider radius (map just below this paragraph). Such maps are mainly an indication on what to expect in general. Do not blame USGS to be erroneous, because seismology (including intensities) is a very complicated matter. Earthquake waves are propagated through many layers in the earth and each layer can have a different propagation structure. We can assure you, USGS does great work in getting as close as possible to the reality and their work and accuracy are improving year after year.
Update 08:47 UTC : Since the mainshock we have counted 8 M3+ aftershocks. Aftershocks are normal and some faulting areas are very sensitive to aftershocks like this one.
– 28000 people will have experienced this as a weak earthquake. These are theoretical intensity values. As one can see below in our I Have Felt It reports, this earthquake was perceived by people at a far greater distance than the USGS did expect.
Exceptionally strong earthquake in a luckily sparsely populated area.
The maximum shaking intensity as calculated by the USGS was a weak to very weak shaking (MMI II or III).
The area has however a number of cattle barns in a radius of 10 to 20 miles from the epicenter and it cannot be excluded that these may have been damaged.
The epicenter area has NO volcanic past but influencing the seismic pattern of the nearby Mammoth Mountain volcanic field cannot be excluded.
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.1
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-02-12 16:10:13
pdate : The focal mechanisms for a Nuclear Test are completely different than in case of an earthquake. The following webpages are showing a number of slides explaining what the difference is and how seismologists can recognize the pattern. Click here for these slides or click on the image below
Update : We are very surprised that USGS has received some IHFI reports from within North Korea. They may have been reporting it without knowing that it was a nuclear test.
Update : A nuclear test (first described as earthquake) of very shallow depth has hit North Korea near to many different towns however up in the mountains. The magnitude of between 4.9 and 5.1 has been seen with depths ranging from 1km (USGS) to 10km from GEOFON. It is likely this is the 3rd nuclear test however, the Inchon, Korea seismogram is currently not visible online.
We will wait for more information but South Korea has possibly determined (there is always a lot of back chatter) that it is an artificial quake after looking at the seismograms.
Update : This is most likely artificial it is likely that there will be no damage in the neighbouring towns.
This was between 6 and 7 kilotons.
Anjik-kol (16km), Chik-tong (5km), Komunjik (16km) are the closest towns.
4 km (34 miles) N of Kimchaek, North Korea (pop 179,000)
80 km (50 miles) SW of Chongjin, North Korea (pop 582,000)
182 km (113 miles) SSW of Yanji, Jilin, China
380 km (236 miles) NE of PYONGYANG, North Korea
Update : Historically many earthquakes have hit North Korea causing damage, but no significant ones in the last few years. However, this is the 3rd nuclear test in the last few years.
Depending on the magnitude of the earthquake, and whether the Lg coda waves have been detected, it could be that this is a nuclear test and not an earthquake as such. Nuclear tests are usually around M4.5-5.0 depending on the amount of explosives used. Lg coda waves are one of the ways to tell if in fact this is a tectonic earthquake or a non-natural event. – THIS HAS NOW BEEN ESTABLISHED ACCORDING TO VARIOUS SOURCES (1 hr after)
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : M5.0
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-02-12 11:57:53
Massive earthquake near Pasto, Colombia – Also well felt in Ecuador – tens of houses collapsed, 3 people with minor injuries
Last update: February 9, 2013 at 5:58 pm by By Armand Vervaeck
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.9
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-02-09 09:15:57
GMT/UTC Time : 2013-02-09 14:15:57
Depth (Hypocenter) : 124 km
Roundup of the damage reported so far (all in Colombia) :
– El Charco : 3 slightly injured people
– Cali : Minor damage like cracks in houses
– Narino : at least 20 collapsed houses
– Timbiquí : 3 collapsed houses
– Buenaventura : 6 houses seriously damaged
– Popoyan (The Tunnel) : 5 houses severely damaged
– Bella Vista de Guapi : 2 houses damaged to some extend Update 17:57 UTC : Civil Defense in Colombia reports that at least 120 houses have been damaged by the shaking. No serious injuries reported so far, but 7 people have been treated for minor injuries.
Update 17:28 UTC : Almost all reported serious damage and collapsed houses happened in the flat area of the Pacific Coastal plain.
for more information and updates, go to: http://earthquake-report.com/2013/02/09/massive-earthquake-colombia-on-february-9-2013/
(Please consider a small donation to the earthquake report site. These guys do an amazing job, and will be more and more necessary as the Earth movements continue and intensify.)
Last update: February 8, 2013 at 4:25 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Massive earthquake and Tsunami Santa Cruz Islands (Solomon Islands) – 13 people killed, many missing + horrifying aftershocks
Last update: February 8, 2013 at 5:25 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.1
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-02-06 11:07:25
GMT/UTC Time : 2013-02-06 00:07:25
Depth (Hypocenter) : 10 km
FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN… IT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
Since the devastating Tsunami in 2004, people take no risk and move to higher ground, some even auto-evacuating. Honaria, the capital of the Solomon Islands, far outside the shaking area, people are currently moving to higher ground.
Update 03:24 UTC : The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre has corrected its recent update. Australia is NOT in the warning area.
04:23 but is still on watch
During a Tsunami the first wave is not always the biggest one – stay on high ground until the authorities are calling the alert off
Update 03:12 UTC :The Solomon Islands Broadcasting Corporation cited a witness who said water was covering an airstrip in Lata
Update 03:11 UTC : The Solomon Islands Visitor Centre has spoken to ABC News 24, confirming the 90cm sea level rise in the Santa Cruz Islands. In Lata, the provincial capital of the worst-hit area, there are no reports of damage so far.
Typical house in Nendo, the closest island to the epicenter – Image courtesy Mariwatmo
Update 03:05 UTC : A New bulletin from PWTC has just arrived. We bring it to you in a minute
– Evacuations are being ordered by many, many Pacific countries. Authorities are taking NO risk and are evacuating even islands and coastal areas which are not on the dangerous NOAA list !
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0252Z 06 FEB 2013
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS…EXCEPT ALASKA…BRITISH COLUMBIA…WASHINGTON…OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.
… A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT …
A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOLOMON ISLANDS / VANUATU / NAURU / PAPUA NEW GUINEA / TUVALU / NEW CALEDONIA / KOSRAE / FIJI / KIRIBATI / WALLIS AND FUTUNA / MARSHALL ISLANDS / HOWLAND AND BAKER / POHNPEI / TOKELAU / SAMOA / KERMADEC ISLANDS / NEW ZEALAND / AMERICAN SAMOA / TONGA / AUSTRALIA / NIUE / COOK ISLANDS / INDONESIA / WAKE ISLAND
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARSHALL ISLANDS / HOWLAND AND BAKER / POHNPEI / TOKELAU / SAMOA / KERMADEC ISLANDS / NEW ZEALAND / AMERICAN SAMOA / TONGA / AUSTRALIA / NIUE / COOK ISLANDS / INDONESIA / WAKE ISLAND / CHUUK / JARVIS ISLAND / GUAM / NORTHERN MARIANAS / PALMYRA ISLAND / YAP / JOHNSTON ISLAND / MINAMITORISHIMA / BELAU
FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN… IT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.
Update 02:57 UTC : AustraliaNetworkNews / @an_news, a very well informed news agency reports vuia Twitter that : Emergency authorities on Santa Cruz island have confirmed the tsunami has destroyed three villages on the island @ABCNews24
Update 02:57 UTC : Map 2 below is showing 3 very big balloons. These are the same earthquake of course, but they show the locations of the epicenter as reported by Geofon, USGS and EMSC. Epicenter calculation is extremely difficult. Our map shows it very good.
Update 02:51 UTC : A very interesting graph is from the Sea Level gauge at the Lata Wharf, relatively close to the epicenter. The gauge confirms the after all limited height of the tsunami. We have to say however that the currents with a tsunami of 1 meter can also be very powerful and even damage a lot of things.
Update 02:48 UTC : Robert Speta, one of the people collaborating with Earthquake-Report.com and meteorologist at NHK Japan made the following video. Of course this video was made shortly after the earthquake.
Update 02:44 UTC : ONE News has spoken to Charles Ngali who is in Lata Hospital in the Solomon Islands. He says he felt a series of strong earthquakes. The hospital is on high ground but he has heard that a wave passed through the airport, which is on lower ground. Most of the patients at Lata Hospital have been taken to higher ground.
Update 02:41 UTC : Tsunami travel time map as compiled by NOAA
Update 02:38 UTC : And like the M8.0 was not yet enough, the M6+ aftershocks are raging further.
Update 02:36 UTC : AFP reports that : “The information we are getting is that some villages west and south of Lata along the coast have been destroyed, although we cannot confirm this yet,” the director at Lata Hospital on the main Santa Cruz island of Ndende, told AFP.
There is much more information, maps, and updates, here http://earthquake-report.com/2013/02/08/earthquakes-in-the-world-on-february-8-2013-m4-5-or-more/
Please consider donating to this site. They do an amazing job!!!
Snow has begun falling from New York City to Massachusetts, where blizzard warnings are flying in anticipation of the arrival of one of the most severe and dangerous Nor’easters in U.S. history. The great storm, dubbed “Nemo”, has just emerged into the waters off the coast of Virginia, and is predicted to “bomb” to a central pressure of 975 – 980 mb by Saturday afternoon. Cold, Arctic air spilling southwards behind a strong 1038 mb high over Canada will collide with warm, moist air over the Atlantic, where ocean temperatures are unusually warm–about 5°F warmer than average over a large swath from New Jersey to Nantucket, Massachusetts. The contrast between the cold and warm air will help intensify the storm, and the unusually warm waters will pump large quantities of moisture into the air, which will be capable of feeding record-breaking snows over New England. The latest NWS forecast for Boston calls for 22 – 30″ of snow by Saturday morning, with additional snows though Saturday afternoon. Since Boston’s all-time heaviest snow storm is 27.5″ (February 17-18, 2003), Winter Storm Nemo has a chance of exceeding that. According to NWS, here are the top snowstorms since 1936 for Logan Airport:
1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5″
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1″
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3″
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4″
5. January 22-24, 1945 22.8″
6. January 22-23, 2005 22.5″
7. January 20-21, 1978 21.4″
8. March 3-5, 1960 19.8″
9. February 16-17, 1958 19.4″
10. February 8-10, 1994 18.7″
11. January 7-8, 1996 18.2″
11. December 20-22, 1975 18.2″
11. December 26-27, 2010 18.2″
The weight of all that heavy snow on rooftops will create the danger of roof collapses. In addition to the heavy snow, the storm will bring coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 – 3″ per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Hartford, Providence, and Portland are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from South Central Connecticut to Southwest Maine, with isolated amounts of 3′. Ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph will occur at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force–74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. The snow and high winds are likely to cause many power outages.
Figure 1. Predicted snowfall for Winter Storm Nemo from Friday’s 00Z run of the European (ECMWF) model. The highest snowfall amounts (> 24″) are predicted for Long Island, Southern Connecticut, and Eastern Massachusetts, including Boston. This forecast assumes that the ratio between liquid water equivalent and snow depth will be 10:1. In some areas away from the coast, this ratio may be closer to 15:1, leading to snow amounts near 36″.
Figure 2. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 8, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will be just offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.
Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 – 4′ along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. High tide Friday night will occur between 9:30 – 10 pm EST, and minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along east and north-facing shores, when the storm surge of 2 – 3′ rides in on top of the tide. Battering waves of 8 – 17′ will hit the coast south of Boston in Cape Cod Bay, causing severe beach erosion. Of greater concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean’s height near Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the “storm tide”–how high the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57′ hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. Fortunately, it appears that the peak storm surge from Nemo will arrive at the time of low tide early Saturday morning, and the surge will have fallen about a foot by the time the high tide arrives near 10 am EST Saturday. As of 9am EST on February 8, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model was calling for a storm tide of about 3.4′ above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) in Boston on Saturday morning. This would cause minor to moderate flooding in the city, and would be approximately the 10th highest water level on record. The official top 5 storm tides since 1921 at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:
1. 4.82′ – February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92′ – January 2, 1987
3. 3.86′ – October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76′ – January 28, 1979
5. 3.75′ – December 12, 1992
More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 – 4′ is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 18 – 26′ feet high, and major flooding and significant coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.
Severe beach erosion is also expected along the north and northeast facing shores of Long Island, NY, where a storm surge of 3 – 5′ will combine with 4 – 8′ breaking waves. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along western Long Island Sound. New York City is expecting a 2 – 4′ storm surge, which will cause mostly minor flooding, with a few areas of moderate flooding.
Figure 3. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 5 am EDT Friday, February 8, 2013, by the NWS Boston.
A potentially historic Nor’easter is brewing for the Northeast U.S., where blizzard watches are up for much of eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. The storm, dubbed “Nemo” by the Weather Channel, is expected to bring heavy snows of 1 – 2 feet, coastal wind gusts over hurricane force, and moderate to major coastal flooding. During the peak of the storm, Friday night into Saturday morning, snowfall rates of 2 – 3″ per hour can be expected. These intense bursts of snow may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. The cites of Boston, Hartford, Providence, Portland, and Burlington are all likely to get more than a foot of snow, and two feet of snow will probably fall along a swath from the western suburbs of Boston to Southwest Maine. With the Nor’easter generating these heavy snows expected to bomb out with a central pressure of 972 – 976 mb, the rapid flow of air around this low pressure center will generate ferocious sustained winds near 50 mph at the coast, with wind gusts in excess of hurricane force–74 mph. The combination of heavy snow and high winds will make travel extremely dangerous or impossible, with near-zero visibility in white-out conditions. Total snowfall from the storm is likely to rank in the top ten for Boston since weather observations began at Logan Airport in the 1950s. Here is the current top-10 list for Logan Airport:
1. February 17-18, 2003 27.5″
2. February 6-7, 1978 27.1″
3. February 24-27, 1969 26.3″
4. March 31-April 1, 1997 25.4″
5. January 22-23, 2005 22.5″
6. January 20-21, 1978 21.4″
7. March 3-5, 1960 19.8″
8. February 16-17, 1958 19.4″
9. February 8-10, 1994 18.7″
10. January 7-8, 1996 18.2″
10. December 20-22, 1975 18.2″
10. December 26-27, 2010 18.2″
Figure 1. Predicted wind speeds in knots at 7 am EST Saturday, February 9, 2013, from the 00Z February 7, 2013 run of the European (ECMWF) model. The model is predicting sustained winds of 50 knots (57.5 mph) will affect Cape Cod and Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Multiply by 1.15 to convert knots to mph.
Serious coastal flooding expected in Massachusetts
The high winds from the storm will drive a damaging storm surge of 2 – 4′ along the coast of Eastern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday morning. Of particular concern is the flooding that will occur during the Saturday morning high tide cycle, as that is the time of the new moon, which will bring the highest tide of the month. The ocean’s height in Boston varies naturally by about ten feet between low tide and high tide, so it matters greatly when the storm surge arrives, relative to the tidal cycle. Thus we speak of the “storm tide”–how how the water gets above the high tide mark, due to the combination of the storm surge and the tide. During Hurricane Sandy, on October 29, 2012, a potentially very damaging storm surge of 4.57′ hit Boston, but arrived near low tide, so the water level during the peak surge did not rise above the normal high tide mark. As of noon EST on February 7, 2013, the latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model is calling for a storm tide of about 3.4′ above high tide (MHHW, Mean Higher High Water) on Saturday morning, which would cause only minor flooding in Boston. This would be the 10th highest water level on record in Boston since tide gauge records began in 1921. According to former NHC storm surge expert Mike Lowry, who now works for TWC, the official top 5 storm tides at the Boston tide gauge, relative to MHHW, are:
1. 4.82′ – February 7, 1978 (Blizzard of 1978)
2. 3.92′ – January 2, 1987
3. 3.86′ – October 30, 1991 (Perfect Storm)
4. 3.76′ – January 28, 1979
5. 3.75′ – December 12, 1992
More serious flooding is expected in Cape Cod Bay to the southeast of Boston, where the northeast winds from the storm will pile up a higher storm surge. A storm surge of 3 – 4′ is predicted from Scituate to Sandwich Harbor Saturday morning. The surge will be accompanied by battering waves 20′ feet high, and major flooding and coastal erosion is expected. Major coastal flooding is also expected on the east end of Nantucket Island.
Figure 2. Coastal flooding hazards during the high tide cycle on Saturday morning, February 9, 2013, as predicted at 12 pm EDT Thursday, February 7, 2013, by the NWS Boston.
From the perch of “Gobbler’s Knob,” a local hillside in Punxsutawney, Penn., a famous, roly-poly rodent named Phil has predicted an early spring, or put another way, the groundhog did not see his shadow today (Feb. 2), Groundhog Day.
Every year, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club rises early with their charge and takes Phil the groundhog, a rodent that usually lives in an enclosure in the Punxsutawney Memorial Library, to Gobbler’s Knob for the weather-prediction ceremony. This year is Phil’s 127th prognostication.
“Punxsutawney Phil, the King of the Groundhogs, Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, Weather Prophet without Peer, was awakened from his borrow at 7:28 a.m. with a tap of the President’s cane,” announced the Groundhog Club. The statement went on to say, “And so ye faithful, there is no shadow to see an early Spring for you and me.
Legend has it if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter weather are in store; if he doesn’t see a shadow, spring is around the corner.
How much stock should we put into Phil’s forecast? His handlers say the furball makes accurate predictions 100 percent of the time. Statistics tell a slightly different story: According to the Groundhog Club’s records, Phil has predicted about 99 long winters and 15 early springs, with nine years of records lost. Those predictions have been right only 39 percent of the time — 36 percent if you look at post-1969 predictions, when weather records are more accurate.
“He sees his shadow about 80 percent of the time and the other 20 percent he doesn’t,” Bill Deeley, who was one of Phil’s handlers, taking care of the groundhog for about 16 years, told LiveScience in 2010. “He’s pretty darn accurate,” said Deeley, who is now president of the Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle. The president is responsible for translating Phil’s proclamation of whether or not he saw his shadow.
So how did Phil become such a prestigious prognosticator?
The legend of the groundhog’s forecasting powers arguably dates back to the early days of Christianity in Europe when clear skies on the holiday Candlemas Day, celebrated on Feb. 2, meant an extended winter. The tradition was then brought to Germany, with the German twist being that if the sun made an appearance on Candlemas, a hedgehog would cast its shadow, thus predicting six more weeks of bad weather. More specifically, the legend states: “For as the sun shines on Candlemas Day, so far will the snow swirl in May …”
As some of Pennsylvania’s earliest settlers were German, they continued the tradition upon noticing a large population of groundhogs, which resemble the European hedgehog.
Phil’s kin in the wild are likely still snoozing. For these groundhogs, hibernation generally begins in October and ends in March or April (not on Feb. 2). During this deep sleep, groundhogs curl up into tight balls with their heads tucked between their hind legs. Their heartbeats slow from some 100 beats a minute to as few as 15; the body temperature drops from 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) to 46 degrees Fahrenheit (8 degrees C); and breathing slows. This depressed state allows animals to conserve energy and live off their fat stores during the harsh winter months when food is scarce. [Sleep Tight! Photos of Snoozing Animals]
Even though pampered Phil doesn’t go into a deep sleep like his outdoor pals, the groundhog does begin to slow down on eating and activities as the days get shorter. “Our groundhog will eat 12 months out of the year,” Deeley said in 2010. “He’s like an eating machine from April until September 15,” before he starts to slow down.
