Update 20:19 UTC :
– Another M2.5 aftershock was almost unnoticed by people.
– We hate to say it, but social media are again rumoring that a stronger earthquake will occur later today. Such rumors are TOTALLY NONSENSE. Even when such a stronger earthquake would occur, NOBODY in the world can predict such events today (hopefully in the future). You should be prepared for an earthquake at all times. DROP, COVER and HOLD until it is over.
– The authorities and local press are still maintaining that there was NO damage or injuries.
Our ER team continued to search for signs of damage and came up with the following felt reports :
– Goleta: dishes on counter broke after hit by something falling off shelves.
– Goleta : Clock almost fell off wall but nothing broken. Small crack in wall.
– Undefined location in the area : “Running at the beach and saw some big chunks come off the cliffs. Good time to be especially careful near the tops and bottoms of the bluffs!”
– earthquake related or not : A major natural gas leak in Thousand Oaks prompted evacuations on a half-mile radius, Thousand Oaks is just south of Oxnard (MMI of III was felt there) they don’t know what caused this. The gas leak was reported 3 hours after the earthquake.
MMI radius map
Update 17:25 UTC : Don’t be blind for the always appearing standard text “There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries” who are published soon after an earthquake from this type. Although the text is right at the time of writing, people often do not report fallen objects, fissures in walls, etc. Based on our experience, it would really surprise us that no minor damage was inflicted. We will continue following up local reports and will bring them to you if we find them.
The current status is still : The Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Department, Office of Emergency Management and Fire Department said they had no initial reports of injuries or damage.
Update 17:06 UTC : The local press is still writing that USGS did decrease the Magnitude from 4.9 to 4.6 which was indeed the case BUT after a new update USGS has now reported a magnitude of 4.8. if you are a journalist reading this, please adapt your content. A M4.8 earthquake at a depth of 8 km is a rather strong event for California.
The M2.6 aftershock which occurred 12 minutes after the mainshock will not have been felt by many people.
Update 17:03 UTC : News Channel 3 Santa Barbara is receiving reports of minor damage such as glass breaking and small objects falling from walls, exactly what we wrote a few minutes after it happened.
Update 16:52 UTC : The seismograph at ABC7 KABC-TV LOS ANGELES, CA has been building the seismogram of this event.
Update 16:31 UTC : USGS has updated his values to M4.8 at a depth of 8 km.
Shaking values at the following locations :
Moderate MMI V shaking : Isla Vista 23,000 and Goleta 30,000
Light shaking MMI IV : Santa Ynez 4,000, Buellton 5,000, Solvang 5,000 and Mission Canyon 2,000
The Human impact map has been changed as follows :
Update 16:09 UTC : Below the Focal Mechanism of this earthquake (reverse faulting mechanism). Today’s earthquake was right on the coastal fault. The stress comes from the Oceanic plate pushing towards the North American plate (South-West – North-East direction. As you can see on the fault map below, the whole area is very complex.
On our map below, you can see that the strongest earthquake in the area was a M6.2 earthquake in 1925 followed by a M5.8 in 1978, both in the direct vicinity of Santa Barbara.
Fault map courtesy http://www.geol.ucsb.edu/
Update 15:09 UTC : No reports of damage so far (far to early to bu sure about that). Based on our California experience incoming MMI’s are higher than normal, so minor damage is still possible.
Update 15:06 UTC : Maximum shaking as expected by USGS MMI VI (this is also the maximum we are getting from our readers).
Based on the many I Have Felt It reports we are receiving, people have been really scared by the shaking. In average we get a moderate MMI V shaking. Goleta , closest to the epicenter has the strongest incoming MMI’s
We expect at least some minor damage in Goleta (minor damge like fallen objects, cracks in walls, fallen rooftiles, etc).
5km (3mi) W of Isla Vista, California
8km (5mi) WSW of Goleta, California
20km (12mi) W of Santa Barbara, California
36km (22mi) W of Carpinteria, California
484km (301mi) SSE of Sacramento, California
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 4.6
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-05-29 07:38:02
The yet-to-be-named volcano in Southeast Alaska differs from many on the ocean floor. Its top was likely above the water when it last erupted some 10,000 years ago. Courtesy: NOAA
Jim Baichtal has a habit of cruising the website of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration looking for new hydrographic surveys of Alaska.
“I was just checking the website before I headed out one day,” he said, “and when I saw the survey results of an area near Ketchikan, all I can remember saying is, ‘Oh, my gosh!’” Buried inside the NOAA data were 3D renderings of a previously unknown volcano, beneath the depths of Behm Canal inside Misty Fjords National Monument.
The yet-to-be-named volcano differs from many on the ocean floor. Baichtal, a U.S. Forest Service geologist, says its top was likely above the water when it last erupted some 10,000 years ago. NOAA imaging and new underwater video of the area shows what appears to be leftovers of ash or cinder near the volcano crater.
“If it erupted entirely underwater, we would see quenched magma, a completely different type of rock,” Baichtal said. Upcoming tests on rocks taken during a recent dive there should tell the ultimate tale.
New mapping technology
Before NOAA began its hydrographic survey, using the latest 3D multi-beam sonar, the only maps of sea floor in the vicinity were created in the early 1900s using a technique called “lead lining.” Until the 1940s scientists used ropes with lead weights attached to them to determine the sea floor’s depth in any given location. With enough readings, a crude hydrographic map could be created.
But the maps were not detailed enough to show the features of the volcano under Behm Canal. That changed when NOAA began its survey of Southeast waters. The agency’s ships now bounce sound waves off the ocean floor and measure the time it takes for them to return to the surface.
The technique gives a detailed 3D view of the seafloor. NOAA says the vastness of Alaska means it will likely have plenty of new areas to survey in the coming decades. “We follow the weather,” said Commander David Zezula, with NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. Typically, in the fall at least one NOAA survey ship plies the waters of Southeast Alaska. They move north with better summer weather. The Raineer, a NOAA survey ship is expected to head to the Bering Sea later this year.
After seeing the outline of the volcano, near Eddy Rock in Behm Canal, on the new NOAA maps, Baichtal decided to take a look under water for himself. He joined Gary Freitag, a Ketchikan-based professor of oceanography with the University of Alaska. Freitag has a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) capable of diving to 800 feet. Together they took video and rock samples from the volcano’s slope as well as its crest. But the trip was cut short.
“We just had a little bit of time for the ROV dive because when we went to the area, we had a group of students from Ketchikan with us,” said Freitag. Another trip is planned for the summer, and Freitag hopes to get more video of the structure of the newly discovered volcano.
“It is a very interesting feature,” said Freitag. “When I took some samples, I had to look hard for a clean place to use the ROV’s pinchers because the volcano is covered in sponges.”
Ice makes fire?
Baichtal says the volcano, like many in southeast Alaska was once pushed above the surface during an eruption. But its climb from the depths may have been the result of crustal response – when the ground “bounces back” after a large weight is lifted. If you go back 10,000 years, much of Alaska was covered by ice up to 4 miles thick. That is a lot of weight on the land beneath – pushing it down as much as 400 feet, Baichtal said. When the ice melted, the land rebounded, actually rising because the great weight of the ice had been removed. “The new volcano is in an area where these de-glaciation events often precede an eruption,” Baichtal says. When the ground rebounds, it opens up vents along fault lines, releasing magma. That is likely what happened at Behm Canal, and Baichtal said it is probably the cause of a lot of eruptions in Southeast Alaska just after the last great ice age.
New studies are beginning to show the effects of ice-age climates and volcanoes. “We frequently see eruptive episodes about 3,600 to 4,000 years after de-glaciation,” Baichtal said. The newly discovered volcano seems to follow that pattern, last erupting a few thousand years after a massive glacier that once covered its peak, melted away.
The underwater Southeast volcanoes can also tell scientists a lot about the glaciers that once covered them. Many glaciers form, melt and reform over thousands or millions of years, but for the most part geologists can only see the evidence of the last glacier in any area; it’s usually stripped the land of any clues about its predecessors.
That’s where volcanoes come into play. By looking at the shape, size and orientation of the vent from an old eruption, as well as examining the cooling pattern and quenched area around the volcano, geologists can learn a lot about ancient glaciers.
Baichtal says he plans to study the new volcano as much as he can, and he’ll examine new NOAA underwater maps to see if he can find others. Despite containing half the US coastline, much of Alaska is still unmapped by modern techniques. Baichtal is confident he’ll find something that piques his interest, whether a volcano, new shoreline, or glacial moraine.
No change in activity
The Government of the Argentine province of Neuquén (Argentina side of the border) ordered by decree a “high alert” for the town of Caviahue and surrounding areas that could be affected by the possible eruption of Copahue, the government said. 800 people will be asked to evacuate at the Argentina side of the border. The evacuated people will be lodged in hotels at approx. 70 km from Caviahue.
The Argentina side of the border and more specifically Caviahue will probably get the big ash shower when Copahue would erupt ast Easterly winds are the main wind direction in the Andes.
The village of Caviahue, east of the Copahue volcano – Image courtesy a60
Webcam COPAHUE to follow the events – Sernageomin1
Nothing to see at the moment of writing because of very bad weather.
The evacuation of the 400 families living under treat of lahars (hot mud flows – in part generated by melting snow) and pyroclastic flows (extremely hot ash avalanches that burn everything on their way) is being effectuated orderly.
Nothing special going on so far and nothing serious expected as far as VAAC Buenos Aires is reporting. (NO VA EXP (text on map) is of course NO Volcanic Ash expected). This map is a precision of 19:30 UTC on May 28 (today).
Unusual earthquake along the coast of Wales, United Kingdom
Last update: May 29, 2013 at 10:29 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update 09:10 UTC : In a statement BGS reports:
The earthquake of the 29 May 2013 occurred at 03:16 UTC (04:16 BST), with an epicentre approximately 13 km NW of Abersoch, Gwynedd. The instrumental magnitude was determined at 3.8 ML, and the earthquake was located approximately 21 km WSW of the magnitude 5.4 earthquake that occurred on 19 July 1984 (a magnitude of 3.8 is approximately 256 times smaller than 5.4). The estimated area over which an earthquake with a magnitude of 3.8, and depth of 8 km, would be felt was calculated to be a distance of up to 75-100 km from the epicentre (at intensity 3 EMS). Analysis of the results from an automatic online questionnaire survey agrees with this. Almost 100 felt reports have been received. Of those, almost all of them came from within a 50 km radius, from Abersoch, Caernarfon, Bangor, Holyhead and their surrounding hamlets. Reports generated in a north-easterly direction from the epicentre. A little further afield, reports were received from Conwy and Rhyl area (75-100 km to NE of epicentre), whilst single reports were received from Southport, Merseyside (140 km to NE of epicentre), the Isle of Man (140 km to north of epicentre). There are also reports of the earthquake having been felt on the east coast of Ireland (110 km east of epicentre).
Most people described having been awoken from their sleep by the moderate shaking strength of the earthquake, which had a trembling effect. The sound strength was also described as moderate. Many of the reports stated that windows and crockery rattled. Reports described “the bed was shaking too scared to look at anything else”, “loud rumbling sound woke me, then noticed s sound of mirror rattling on bedside cabinet”, “gradually grew louder. Classic underground train passing sensation“ and “woke the household any many neighbours”
Update 08:42 UTC : This great image goes viral on twitter as being the damage triggered by the Wales earthquake. Welsh great humor !
Damage in Wales – Twitter image courtesy @Leighsheps
Update 07:55 UTC : As expected we have not found 1 single report of damage so far, a report which we like a lot . If you have any knowledge of damage near the epicenter, even cracks in walls, please let us know.
– Geofon Germany just comes up with a Magnitude of 4.3.
– Seismology is a very difficult science and data may differ a lot according to the reporting seismological agency. Earthquake-Report.com values to local data always as “probably” the most accurate simply because the local agencies have the most instruments closest to the epicenter. The world press seems to think that USGS is the God of seismology. We favor more USGS as one of the Gods and a very good one .
Update 04:55 UTC : We have now a report from BGS (British Geological Survey) mentioning a Ml Magnitude of 3.8 at a depth of 8 km. As earthquake location is mentioned Lleyn peninsula (epicenter is the green arrow). The villages of Pennlech and Porth Colmon are closest to the epicenter. Based on these (to be trusted) data, the chance of even minor damage has been decreased.
Update 04:42 UTC : We assume that most Welsh journalists haven’t felt it as there are NO reports so far in the local press (at least not the many we have consulted).
Update 04:35 UTC : Based on what we are reading from the many I Have Felt It reports below, we expect some minor damage on the nearby Wales peninsula. Minor damage means in this case fallen objects, cracks in older walls, fissures or even collapsing chimneys, fallen roof tiles, etc. We do not expect injuries. The damage, if any, would have been proportionally bigger with an epicenter below land.
Update 04:28 UTC : Only EMSC has reported this earthquake. The local British Geological Survey hasn’t even mentioned it in his website. The last significant earthquake in the United Kingdom happened in Market Rasen, Lincs, on February 27 2008. That one was more powerful at M5.2.
Update 04:12 UTC : EMSC has shifted the location of the epicenter more into the Irish Sea, weakening that way the impact of this earthquake.
As you can see on our bottom map, nothing important occurred in the area since 1900.
This earthquake was initially reported by EMSC as a M5.5 earthquake, which would surely have been damaging. But even at the current still preliminary value of M4.3, we can speak of an unusual strong earthquake for the United Kingdom.
The coastal area of Nefyn Bay, closest to the epicenter – Image courtesy John Goodall
90 km SE of Dublin, Ireland / pop: 1,024,027 / local time: 04:16:26.0 2013-05-29
59 km SW of Caernarfon, United Kingdom / pop: 9,836 / local time: 04:16:26.0 2013-05-29
44 km W of Pwllheli, United Kingdom / pop: 3,904 / local time: 04:16:26.0 2013-05-29
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 4
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-05-29 04:16:29
The shocking minutes relating to President Putin’s meeting this past week with US Secretary of State John Kerry reveal the Russian leaders “extreme outrage” over the Obama regimes continued protection of global seed and plant bio-genetic giants Syngenta and Monsanto in the face of a growing “bee apocalypse” that the Kremlin warns “will most certainly” lead to world war.
According to these minutes, released in the Kremlin today by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation (MNRE), Putin was so incensed over the Obama regimes refusal to discuss this grave matter that he refused for three hours to even meet with Kerry, who had traveled to Moscow on a scheduled diplomatic mission, but then relented so as to not cause an even greater rift between these two nations.
At the center of this dispute between Russia and the US, this MNRE report says, is the “undisputed evidence” that a class of neuro-active insecticides chemically related to nicotine, known as neonicotinoids, are destroying our planets bee population, and which if left unchecked could destroy our world’s ability to grow enough food to feed its population.
So grave has this situation become, the MNRE reports, the full European Commission (EC) this past week instituted a two-year precautionary ban (set to begin on 1 December 2013) on these “bee killing” pesticides following the lead of Switzerland, France, Italy, Russia, Slovenia and Ukraine, all of whom had previously banned these most dangerous of genetically altered organisms from being used on the continent.
Two of the most feared neonicotinoids being banned are Actara and Cruiser made by the Swiss global bio-tech seed and pesticide giant Syngenta AG which employs over 26,000 people in over 90 countries and ranks third in total global sales in the commercial agricultural seeds market.
Important to note, this report says, is that Syngenta, along with bio-tech giants Monsanto, Bayer, Dow and DuPont, now control nearly 100% of the global market for genetically modified pesticides, plants and seeds.
“As part of a study on impacts from the world’s most widely used class of insecticides, nicotine-like chemicals called neonicotinoids, American Bird Conservancy (ABC) has called for a ban on their use as seed treatments and for the suspension of all applications pending an independent review of the products’ effects on birds, terrestrial and aquatic invertebrates, and other wildlife.
“It is clear that these chemicals have the potential to affect entire food chains. The environmental persistence of the neonicotinoids, their propensity for runoff and for groundwater infiltration, and their cumulative and largely irreversible mode of action in invertebrates raise significant environmental concerns,” said Cynthia Palmer, co-author of the report and Pesticides Program Manager for ABC, one of the nation’s leading bird conservation organizations.
ABC commissioned world renowned environmental toxicologist Dr. Pierre Mineau to conduct the research. The 100-page report, “The Impact of the Nation’s Most Widely Used Insecticides on Birds,” reviews 200 studies on neonicotinoids including industry research obtained through the US Freedom of Information Act. The report evaluates the toxicological risk to birds and aquatic systems and includes extensive comparisons with the older pesticides that the neonicotinoids have replaced. The assessment concludes that the neonicotinoids are lethal to birds and to the aquatic systems on which they depend.
“A single corn kernel coated with a neonicotinoid can kill a songbird,” Palmer said. “Even a tiny grain of wheat or canola treated with the oldest neonicotinoid — called imidacloprid — can fatally poison a bird. And as little as 1/10th of a neonicotinoid-coated corn seed per day during egg-laying season is all that is needed to affect reproduction.”
The new report concludes that neonicotinoid contamination levels in both surface- and ground water in the United States and around the world are already beyond the threshold found to kill many aquatic invertebrates.”
And to how bad the world’s agricultural system has really become due to these genetically modified plants, pesticides and seeds, this report continues, can be seen by the EC’s proposal this past week, following their ban on neonicotinoids, in which they plan to criminalize nearly all seeds and plants not registered with the European Union, and as we can, in part, read:
“Europe is rushing towards the good ol days circa 1939, 40… A new law proposed by the European Commission would make it illegal to “grow, reproduce or trade” any vegetable seeds that have not been “tested, approved and accepted” by a new EU bureaucracy named the “EU Plant Variety Agency.”
It’s called the Plant Reproductive Material Law, and it attempts to put the government in charge of virtually all plants and seeds. Home gardeners who grow their own plants from non-regulated seeds would be considered criminals under this law.”
This MRNE report points out that even though this EC action may appear draconian, it is nevertheless necessary in order to purge the continent from continued contamination of these genetically bred “seed monstrosities.”
To the “truer” reason for the Obama regimes protection of these bio-tech giants destroying our world, the MRNE says, can be viewed in the report titled “How did Barack Obama become Monsanto’s man in Washington?” and which, in part, says:
“After his victory in the 2008 election, Obama filled key posts with Monsanto people, in federal agencies that wield tremendous force in food issues, the USDA and the FDA: At the USDA, as the director of the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Roger Beachy, former director of the Monsanto Danforth Center. As deputy commissioner of the FDA, the new food-safety-issues czar, the infamous Michael Taylor, former vice-president for public policy for Monsanto. Taylor had been instrumental in getting approval for Monsanto’s genetically engineered bovine growth hormone.”
“The US House of Representatives quietly passed a last-minute addition to the Agricultural Appropriations Bill for 2013 last week – including a provision protecting genetically modified seeds from litigation in the face of health risks.
The rider, which is officially known as the Farmer Assurance Provision, has been derided by opponents of biotech lobbying as the “Monsanto Protection Act,” as it would strip federal courts of the authority to immediately halt the planting and sale of genetically modified (GMO) seed crop regardless of any consumer health concerns.
The provision, also decried as a “biotech rider,” should have gone through the Agricultural or Judiciary Committees for review. Instead, no hearings were held, and the piece was evidently unknown to most Democrats (who hold the majority in the Senate) prior to its approval as part of HR 993, the short-term funding bill that was approved to avoid a federal government shutdown.”
Strong moderately dangerous earthquake near the Panama / Costa Rica border area
Last update: May 27, 2013 at 4:43 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Update 16:38 UTC : After searching our many sources we are happy to report that NO damage or injuries have been reported by local press or authorities. If you have signs of the contrary, please let us know by filling in a comment or IHFI report. Thank you.
The most logical reason for a possible harmless outcome will be the depth as reported by Ovsicori Costa Rica (35 km).
Update 11:07 UTC : Ovsicori Costa Rica is reporting a Magnitude of M6 BUT at a depth of 35 km. this depth makes the earthquake still moderately dangerous but less dangerous than the initial USGS data.
Update 10:54 UTC : Most shaking exposed villages / cities in the epicenter area :
MMI VI (strong shaking) : Guabito 6,000 inhabitants, Changuinola 23,000 and Sixaola 2,000
MMI V (Moderate shaking) : Barranco 1,000 and Almirante 8,000
Update 10:15 UTC : Falling objects and telephone problems in Costa Rica (nothing abnormal !!). Power outtage in Perez Zeledon
Update 10:09 UTC : The main reason why this earthquake is more dangerous than normal Costa Rica Pacific earthquakes is that the fault type is different (transform vs subduction). Transform faults are more dangerous. The area around town Guabito might be the most dangerous. Many villages, soft soil and probably not the most resistant buildings.
In the direct vicinity of the epicenter are mainly rocky hills and not many villages, but the village of Prucsco is located in a softer soil valley.
A strong earthquake occurred in the middle of the Costa Rica / Panama night at a shallow depth of 12 km (preliminary value). It was well felt in both countries.
This earthquake maybe dangerous as it was strong and shallow.
The earthquake happened on the Atlantic Coast, a rather unusual location for such strong earthquakes.
Earthquake-Report.com calls this earthquake Moderately Dangerous for injuries and damage.
The MMI VII shaking which is expected by the USGS calculations is confirming our expectations.
12km (7mi) SSW of Guabito, Panama
15km (9mi) WSW of Changuinola, Panama
68km (42mi) N of Volcan, Panama
79km (49mi) SSE of Puerto Limon, Costa Rica
168km (104mi) ESE of San Jose, Costa Rica
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.7
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-05-27 04:41:15
Moderate earthquake near Bejaia (Algeria) – At least 11 people treated for various injuries
Last update: May 27, 2013 at 8:50 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update May 27, 08:39 UTC : Several houses and buildings showed cracked walls in Tichy, Baccaro and Aokas, east of the city of Bejaia. These areas were closest to the epicenter. According to the same sources, the Aokas mosque was slightly damaged.
Slight damage at mosque tower in Aokas – image courtesy Aokas forum
Update 22:12 UTC : Local press reports are indicating that 11 people have been treated for various indications in local hospitals. 2 students were injured while jumping out of a window in panic (never do that yourself). Other people had nervous breakdowns. None of the injured had direct shaking injuries as far as we could see.
Widespread panic was reported from the locations closest to the epicenter (including Bejaia). People ran out in the streets and stayed there for a while out of fear for aftershocks.
We expect a better roundup tomorrow morning.
Update 17:24 UTC : According to some Twitter sources, 4 persons are reported injured (to be confirmed).
This earthquake can be called an aftershock of the M5.5 earthquake which struck the same area on May 19.
The city/village of Aokas is closest to the epicenter. As the epicenter was however in the Mediterranean Sea, the shaking impact will have been weakened somewhat.
Image courtesy Madi Nasser – View of Aokas
Update : On vous invite de nous envoyer votre témoignage par le formulaire ci-dessous. Merci d’Avance.
We would like to invite you to send us which shaking you have experienced when you have felt this earthquake. Thank you.
The moderate earthquakes at the Northern Aleria coast seem not to stop the last couple of weeks. This time the epicenter was located close to the Bejaia coast. Bedjaia is a big city with 164000 inhabitants.
We expect at least some minor damage from this earthquake.
image courtesy EMSC
194 km E of Algiers, Algeria / pop: 1,977,663 / local time: 17:00:57.0 2013-05-26
12 km E of Bejaïa, Algeria / pop: 164,103 / local time: 17:00:57.0 2013-05-26
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-05-26 17:00:57
Update 12:07 UTC : One person from Bulungur (Uzbekistan) has just written at the EMSC site in russian language, that the shaking was very strong, all the objects fall down, there are big cracks in the walls, a lot of chimneys collapsed, windows are broken, people are afraid to return home. Bulungur is 44 km South from the EMSC epicenter. The local press is however in Sunday rest as the reports from them are very limited.
Update 09:24 UTC : We can bring you an amateur video posted on YouTube from todays earthquake as it was witnessed in Tashkent (200 km from the epicenter)
Update 08:39 UTC : Preliminary Focal Mechanism for this earthquake shows a reverse faulting (2 plates pushing upon another and breaking). No more news at this moment. We continue our search for more details.
Update 07:56 UTC : The data update is giving the following changed shaking impact on the population (the VII and VI ares can generate damage / injuries, especially on older buildings) :
Update 07:52 UTC : The MMI shaking values for the closest cities are now as following (updated USGS data)
VI (strong shaking) Bulung’ur 27000 people
V (moderate shaking) Jomboy 14000
IV (Light shaking) Daxbet 8000, Chelak 17000, Jizzax 153000 and Samarqand 319000
Update 07:48 UTC : New updated data from USGS are reporting a recalculated Magnitude of 5.8 at a depth of 19 km (instead of 26). The Max. MMI shaking is up now from VI to VII. This is the new shakemap based on the updated data
Update 07:38 UTC : Samarkand reports that the cellular network went down, but no damage known as yet. This is good news, and probably means a different hypocenter and magnitude to that being calculated.
Update 07:30 UTC : Although USGS and other Uzbek newspapers are defining this quake as an intensity 5 (V) earthquake, this is not the case, as the depth and magnitude, if correct, will create at least an intensity VII, and possibly worse.
Update 07:28 UTC : In Navoy, picture frames fell, and it was felt around V (this is also 125km from the epicenter). Not good news.
Update 07:24 UTC : Using Tashkent as IV-V, it appears as though the shaking at the epicenter could be around VIII.
Update 07:18 UTC : Data arriving from our readers are telling us that there might be serious damage near the epicenter as this earthquake was well felt in Tashkent and even more in Dushambe , both at 200 km distance from the epicenter
Update 07:10 UTC : A ER reader writing us from Touristic (Historic) City Samarkand (approx. 40 km to the South West) writes us :
Lots of people panicked, cellular network was down and unresponsive for about 15 mins, no damage yet known
Update 07:06 UTC : The village below is at only 2 km from the epicenter as reported by the USGS and is surely at risk for eventual damage. We have no name of it.
Village at only 2 km north-east of the epicenter (USGS epicenter)
Update 06:58 UTC : The settlement of Mardsham-Bulak is right above the epicenter as reported by USGS.
Update 06:58 UTC : What concerns us a little bit is that the epicenter is located below farmland, which means mostly soft soil. Soft soil has the capacity to distribute a more dangerous shaking wave than a rocky underground.
Lets hope for the sake of the people living in the epicenter area that USGS is right with his data and expectations.
Update 06:55 UTC : The earthquake was felt as far as Almaty
Update 06:52 UTC : The depths of the epicenter are varying seriously in between the different reporting agencies. 26 km (USGS) – 10 km (also a value as “we are not sure” by EMSC) and 16 km (Geofon)
Update 06:50 UTC : The current earthquake is (luckily) far away from yesterday’s epicenter which was close to Tashkent.
Update 06:45 UTC : We expect at least damage in the settlements around the epicenter, but as far as we get reports at the moment it is still too soon the know where the exact epicenter is situated. At this moment we conclude away from the bigger cities
Update 06:42 UTC : Maximum shaking as expected by USGS is MMI VI = strong shaking
Update 06:37 UTC : USGS indicates far better numbers than the preliminary data from EMSC and Geofon – A Magnitude of M6.0 at a preliminary depth of 26 km.
Update 06:32 UTC : The main cities at risk are Koytash and Gallaorol. Jyzzakh, a city with a population of 150,000 people being just out of our dangerous perimeter which we call at this moment at approx. 20 km. As there is still uncertainty about the perimeter this conclusion is still very temporary.
Shaking map based on USGS data
191 km SW of Tashkent, Uzbekistan / pop: 1,978,028 / local time: 11:08:16.0 2013-05-26
37 km W of Jizzax, Uzbekistan / pop: 152,642 / local time: 11:08:16.0 2013-05-26
The second strong to very strong earthquake in 2 days time.
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.8
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-05-26 11:08:16
NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their May 23 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 – 20 named storms, 7 – 11 hurricanes, and 3 – 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% – 205% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16.5 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4.5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 162% of normal. This is well above the 1981 – 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 – 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. Only five seasons since the active hurricane period that began in 1995 have not been above normal–including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.
Figure 1.Hurricane Michael as seen by NASA’s Aqua satellite at 12:20 pm EDT Thursday September 6, 2012. At the time, Michael was a major Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Hurricane Sandy was the only other major Atlantic hurricane of 2012. Image credit: NASA.
The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:
1) Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were 0.4°C above average, and were 0.33°C above the oceans in the remainder of the global tropics. Long-range seasonal computer model forecasts predict a continuation of above-average SSTs in the MDR during much of hurricane season.
2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).
3) No El Niño event is expected this year. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Neutral conditions have been present since last summer, and are predicted to remain neutral through hurricane season by most of the El Niño computer forecast models.
NOAA said, “This combination of climate factors historically produces above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2013 hurricane season could see activity comparable to some of the very active seasons since 1995.” NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts. These models include the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) model CM2.1, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model, the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office model, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble.
How accurate are NOAA’s seasonal hurricane forecasts? A talk presented by NHC’s Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA’s late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA’s May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA’s May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA’s August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.
Figure 3. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) for the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2003-2012, as a function of lead time. Forecast precision is assessed using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) which is the percentage improvement in mean square error over a climatology forecast (six hurricanes in a given year.) Positive skill indicates that the model performs better than climatology, while a negative skill indicates that it performs worse than climatology. Two different climatologies are used: a fixed 50-year (1950-1999) climatology, and a running prior 10-year climate norm. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May, and CSU stopped providing quantitative extended-range December hurricane outlooks in 2011. Skill climbs as the hurricane season approaches, with modest skill levels by early June, and good skill levels by early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).
TSR predicts an active hurricane season: 15.3 named storms
The May 24 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 15.3 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 3.4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these late May forecasts–11% – 25% higher than a “no-skill” forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 63% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 21% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4.4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these late May forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 8% – 12% higher than a “no-skill” forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.5 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.
TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July – September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August – September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and slower than average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.
UKMET office predicts a slightly above normal Atlantic hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.
WSI predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The April 8 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for an active season with 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.
Penn State predicts an active hurricane season: 16 named storms
The May 11 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State’s Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.
The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:
2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19
The wunderground community predicts an active hurricane season: 17 named storms
Over 100 members of the wunderground community have submitted their seasonal hurricane forecasts, which are compiled on trHUrrIXC5MMX’s blog. The April 28 version of this list called for an average of 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. This list will be updated by June 3, so get your forecasts in by then! As usual, I am abstaining from making a hurricane season forecast. I figure there’s no sense making a forecast that will be wrong nearly half the time; I prefer to stick to higher-probability forecasts.
NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 13.5 named storms NOAA’s pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 – 16 named storms, 5 – 8 hurricanes, 1 – 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% – 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 – 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2013, there has already been one named storm. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn’t form until June 25.
NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season: 2 tropical cyclones NOAA’s pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 – 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 – 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.
The week ahead: 91E, and a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
We’re already behind last year’s pace for named storms in both the Atlantic (where Tropical Storm Alberto formed on May 19, and Tropical Storm Beryl on May 26), and in the Eastern Pacific, where Bud formed on May 21 (the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season’s second named storm.) The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 – 60 days, is currently located in the Eastern Pacific. The MJO is relatively weak, but is helping boost the chances that Invest 91E in the Eastern Pacific will develop. On Friday, NHC was giving 91E a 20% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. The 12Z Friday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models were predicting that a weak circulation off the coast of Costa Rica, well east of the separate circulation currently called 91E, could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This system is a threat to spread heavy rains to the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Guatemala on Tuesday and Wednesday.
In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development–the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS model is showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.) The prospects for an early June named storm in the Atlantic are probably above average, though, given that the MJO may be active in the Atlantic during th first week of June.
Strong earthquake in the Banda Sea / Timor Sea islands
Last update: May 25, 2013 at 11:18 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update 10:52 UTC : USGS just reported this earthquake at a depth of 86 km (Magnitude M5.6).
We expect a moderate shaking at many of the nearby islands.
A strong earthquake occurred to he north east of Timor (286 km from Dili).
BMKG Indonesia reports a depth of 13 km and EMSC a preliminary depth of 80 km. Too soon to be certain but as it was felt as a light shaking in Dili, we are going for a final depth in between 50 to 100 km.
Important to note, this report says, is that Syngenta, along with bio-tech giants Monsanto, Bayer, Dow and DuPont, now 
