Four Need-to-Know Changes as 2013 Hurricane Season Ramps Up
Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com | August 07, 2013 11:29am ET
Tropical Storm Andrea was spotted by the Suomi NPP satellite as it passed overhead during the night from June 6-7, 2013, as the storm moved towards landfall on the Florida peninsula.
Credit: NASA/NOAA
Extreme weather events caused $110 billion in damages in 2012 making it the second costliest year on record, according to NOAA. Superstorm Sandy caused the brunt of that cost, resulting in approximately $65 billion dollars in damage.
This year, as Atlantic hurricane season ramps up, NOAA is implementing a few big changes. Below are the ones that could affect you as we enter the peak of the season:
1. Enhanced Computer Power Will Allow for More Precise Forecast
The National Weather Service (NWS) underwent a major upgrade to their supercomputers this year that more than doubled their computing capacity. According to the agency, this has made them twice as fast in processing computer models, and will allow them to provide more accurate forecasts further out in time. With improved forecasts anticipated, the NWS has decreased the size of their forecast cone for tropical systems, resulting in a more specific track map for storms.
2. A New Symbol Will Represent Tropical Depressions
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has done away with the old symbol that indicates a tropical depression and replaced it with a hollow circle.
3. Hurricane and Tropical Storms Watch and Warnings Are Redefined
After Superstorm Sandy, the NWS made the decision to modify the hurricane and tropical storm watch and warning definitions to allow them to be used after a system has become post-tropical. Additionally, they now have the option to continue issuing advisories after a system has become post-tropical, in the case that it continues to pose a significant threat to life and property. With this change, the public can anticipate seeing more advisories, continuing awareness of potential threats long after the term “hurricane” or “tropical storm” is discontinued.
4. Tropical Weather Outlooks Will Now Look Forward Five Days
As of Aug. 1, the NHC will now be providing tropical outlooks that look five days forward. A tropical outlook indicates where disturbed weather is located and where there is potential for tropical development. Previously, the outlook only extended 48 hours out. This is the first change in the outlook time period in several decades, according to the NHC.
Strong earthquake(s) in the Kamena Vourla area Greece – at least 300 houses damaged
Last update: August 7, 2013 at 10:30 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Update 22:26 UTC : Our first estimate was after all very right. The shallow epicenter and the soft soil may have been the reason why more than 300 houses have sustained damage.
Update 14:52 UTC : The mainshock caused that two people were injured. They are builders whose scaffolding fall by the shaking.
Damage image courtesy and copyright lamiareport.gr
Update 13:52 UTC : A new M4.6 aftershock occurred a couple of minutes ago. This may go on for many hours even days.
Update 13:50 UTC : A new picture of the damage in the village of Drimea, very close to the epicenter
Image courtesy and copyright ethnos.gr
Update 10:23 UTC : More minor damage to houses is reported from other villages close to the epicenter, where also rockfalls and power outages occurred.
Update 10:17 UTC : One old house in the village Drimea, 8 km west of the epicenter, collapsed (Maybe a second in Amifikleia). Another building in Thermopylen, a village near Lamia, was hit by a fallen rock. No injuries are reported so far.
Update 10:01 UTC : In Amfikleia, a town approx. 10 km south of the epicenter, collapsed chimneys and cracked walls were observed.
Update 09:57 UTC : The Police Department of Lamia reported rockfall in the hills near the epicenter. No damage to buildings is currently reported.
Update 09:43 UTC : Below the seismogram from this earthquake(s) on the Aspirathos, Naxos seismograph. Image courtesy Geofon Germany.
Update 09:37 UTC : Based on new data from the Greece Institute of Geodynamics the outcome is much more harmless. The depth being reported at 17 km and the Magnitude at 5.1 puts a totally different and harmless light on this earthquake.
Small damage like cracks in walls, fallen plaster and tiles are still possible, but we do not expect anything serious.
Update 09:27 UTC : Earthquake-report.com calls this earthquake very dangerous for damage (less for injuries) based on the current seismological data. The fact that the epicenter area is likely a farm fields area is adding to our fear.
Update 09:22 UTC : the different seismological agencies are reporting preliminary different Magnitudes.
Double earthquake or a foreshock and a mainshock in Greece.
6km (4mi) SW of Kainouryion, Greece
25km (16mi) SE of Lamia, Greece
39km (24mi) NNW of Levadeia, Greece
64km (40mi) SSE of Farsala, Greece
125km (78mi) NW of Athens, Greece
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 4.3
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-08-07 12:02:44
Oil companies begin ‘fracking’ in China’s most dangerous earthquake zone
Published time: August 01, 2013 10:29
Edited time: August 01, 2013 12:05
Reuters / Stringer
The Chinese want to join the shale gas revolution, even if it means drilling for oil in China’s earthquake hot bed in the Sichuan region, where nearly 70,000 died in an earthquake in 2008.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc and China National Petroleum have started ‘fracking’ operations in the province.
China hopes to boost annual shale gas production to 6.5 billion cubic meters by 2015, and reserves are estimated at about 1,115 trillion cubic feet, according to the US Energy Information Administration, higher than the estimated 665 trillion gas reserves on American soil.
Europe’s largest oil company plans to invest $1 billion per year in China’s shale gas industry, as part of its goal to increase global output to four million barrels of oil and gas by 2017-2018, up from current levels of 3.3 million.
Drilling for oil in the Longmenshan mountain range, where India and Asia meet, could increase tremors in the already highly-sensitive area.
The hydraulic fracturing, or ‘fracking’ process of extracting oil from the earth is invasive and is believed by many to be a direct earthquake instigator.
Extraction by ‘fracking’ involves pumping millions of gallons of water and chemicals into the ground, which creates excess hydro waste, which over time, causes tectonic stress.
“We do detailed structural analysis as a routine part of our pre-drill evaluation,” Shi Jiangtao, a Shell spokesman in Beijing, said in an e-mail to Bloomberg. “This means that we evaluate the geology by using seismic, surface geology, nearby well data, etc.”
There is strong correlative evidence between deep underground wells and nearby earthquakes, both in the US and China.
An investigation by the US Geological Survey found that ‘fracking’ and quakes aren’t directly related, but noted, “at some locations the increase in seismicity coincides with the injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells.”
Human-induced earthquakes would be controversial in a region which experienced one of the deadliest earthquakes in China’s history, which killed nearly 70,000, including 5,335 school children in a 2008 quake in Wenchuan, Sichuan region.
Thousands of people flock to look at the devastated town of Beichuan on May 12, 2009 which was destroyed in the May 12, 2008 Sichuan earthquake (AFP Photo / Peter Parks)
The boom in oil and gas ‘fracking’ has led to jobs, billions in royalties and profits, and even some environmental gains.
The shale industry boom in the US may add as much as $690 billion to GDP and create 1.7 million jobs by 2020, according to a study by McKinsey and Co. The oil boom has boosted domestic employment, company profits, and GDP in the US, and China is eager to follow suit, even it means drilling in earthquake territory.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, China National Petroleum, and China Petrochemical Corp all currently have drilling operations in the region.
Environmental concerns
Geologists also raise concerns over the amount of water used in ‘fracking’, and whether China’s shale ambitions could run the water supply dry.
China, home to roughly 20 percent of the world’s population, only controls 6 percent of the world’s fresh water supply, and often experiences serious water shortages. Adding ‘fracking’ to this equation could only further exacerbate the problem. Toxic chemicals used in fracking alter the drinking water.
Shale gas is often found ‘in the middle of nowhere’, places that are already prone to water shortages.
Environmentalists in China have also voiced concern over contamination and pollution brought on by ‘fracking’ waste disposal.
Shell’s earnings hit hard by shale gas
Royal Dutch Shell’s earnings fell $1.1 billion in Q2, year on year, blaming poor performance on higher operating costs, disruptions in Nigeria, and a weakening Aussie currency. Total revenue fell by 5.6 percent.
Net income fell by 57 percent in the second quarter, which was partly due to $2.2 billion the company had to write off on shale exploration and development in the United States.
China’s eagerness to exploit shale gas opens an opportunity for foreign investors looking for a start-up opportunity.
“In the next 18 months we expect to see five major project start-ups, which should add over $4bn to our 2015 cash flow,” said Peter Voser, CEO of Shell, said in relation to quarterly results.
Shell is planning to sell four more oil blocks in Nigeria, and is eyeing selling other assets in the Niger Delta, where oil theft and violence has stunted revenue.
It has already sold eight Niger Delta licenses for a total $1.8bn since 2010, but has publicly announced it remains committed to operations in Nigeria.
Very strong earthquake at intermediate depth near Ishinomaki, Japan
Last update: August 4, 2013 at 8:40 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update 08:37 UTC : A third injury is confirmed. It’s a man who fell and hurt his hip.
Update : 2 people injured is the somewhat surprising result of this earthquake at intermediate depth. No specific reports of damage as yet but we will continue to search for eventual damage
Update : JMA Japan reports a Magnitude of M6.0 at a depth of 50 km.
JMA5+ intensity at Ishinomaki-shi Kobuchihama
JMA5- intensity at Wakuya-cho Shimmachi-ura, Osaki-shi Kashimadai*, Ishinomaki-shi Monoucho* and Onagawa-cho Onagawahama*
Based on our experience with Japanese earthquakes, earthquake-report.com considers JMA 5+ intensity as a potentially dangerous shaking.
A very strong earthquake at intermediate depth struck the Ishinomaki area. Epicenter was offshore.
Image courtesy and copyright JMA Japan
57km (35mi) ESE of Ishinomaki, Japan
64km (40mi) ESE of Yamoto, Japan
75km (47mi) ESE of Matsushima, Japan
76km (47mi) E of Shiogama, Japan
340km (211mi) NE of Tokyo, Japan
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.8
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-08-04 12:28:52
BILOXI, Miss. — IF you don’t live near the Gulf Coast, you may have the impression that the area has fully recovered from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, the largest environmental disaster in American history. Sadly, that’s not the case for tens of thousands of gulf residents still trying to put their lives back together.
That is, however, what BP wants the public to believe — which is why it is now engaged in an aggressive legal and public-relations campaign to limit how much it pays individuals and businesses for the losses its reckless behavior caused. After having a hand in this huge disaster, the company wants to leave these communities to rebuild on their own, even as it takes in record profits.
The spill resulted in the release of more than 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico and the deaths of 11 people. In September 2011 a federal investigation found BP responsible for the leak, and in November 2012 the Department of Justice reached a court settlement with the company that included a $4.5 billion fine.
In 2010 the company set up a $20 billion fund to settle claims arising from the disaster, and since then it has made payments to hundreds of thousands of individuals and businesses affected by the spill. In 2012 a federal court took over supervision of the fund.
But tens of thousands of gulf residents still haven’t been fully compensated for their losses, and many are struggling to make ends meet. Many low-wage workers in the fishing and service industries, for example, have been seeking compensation for lost wages and jobs for three years. In many cases, their claims aren’t successful because they can’t afford the legal help required to navigate the complex claims process.
Their troubles stem in part from BP’s increasingly brazen attempts to stonewall payouts. Most recently, the company made a motion in court to freeze payments on tens of thousands of legitimate claims, arguing that a staff attorney from the Deepwater Horizon Court-Supervised Settlement Program, the program responsible for evaluating compensation claims, had improperly profited from claims filed by a New Orleans law firm. The attorney is said to have received portions of settlement claims for clients he referred to the firm.
But the alleged bad behavior of one attorney does not justify freezing the payment of all claims, as BP has demanded, especially when the firm handled a small fraction of the claims that have been submitted for compensation. In any case, the attorney has resigned, and Carl J. Barbier, the federal judge who is overseeing the settlement, ordered an investigation, which is continuing. So far the judge has refused to freeze payments while the investigation is under way, a ruling that the company is appealing.
Of course, this isn’t really about the possible extent of the damage done by the attorney. BP is using the case to cast doubt, both in public and in the courts, on the entire process. And it’s working: its talking points have been echoed in mainstream media coverage, which has so far featured few voices of actual oil-spill victims.
Such guilt by association ignores the robust measures built into the settlement program to ensure a fair compensation system. The fraud-detection mechanisms are so extensive that the processing of claims is slowed down to accommodate them.
Meanwhile, the company has fought aggressively to undermine individual claims. In some instances, BP has tried to deny payment of claims that its own settlement program had already deemed legitimate.
The company’s efforts know no bounds and have pushed the claimants and their legal representatives to the limit. My organization, the Mississippi Center for Justice, is one of several groups providing pro bono legal assistance. Since 2011, we have helped approximately 10,000 people navigate the difficult claims process and obtain money they are owed by BP.
We have seen firsthand the extent to which BP will go to avoid paying even patently legitimate claims. One claimant with whom we worked, whose employer closed its doors in the wake of the spill, finally received an offer for compensation after two years. Then BP appealed the award, seeking to have it revoked. After he received assistance in countering BP’s appeal, the company finally admitted that he was, in fact, owed money and withdrew its appeal of his claim.
But while we can carry on the battle through lawsuits and in the affected communities, we are outgunned in the court of public opinion. In countless high-priced TV spots and full-page newspaper ads, the company is selling the story that it is committed to helping victims of the oil spill and rebuilding the gulf.
We know different. The company has turned its back on the people whose lives it derailed. BP must end its stall tactics and keep its promises to the people of the gulf.
A massive dust storm that formed over the Sahara Desert early this week has now pushed out over the tropical Atlantic, and will sharply reduce the odds of tropical storm formation during the first week of August. The dust is accompanied by a large amount of dry air, which is making the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) much drier than usual this week. June and July are the peak months for dust storms in the Southwest Sahara, and this week’s dust storm is a typical one for this time of year. Due in large part to all the dry and dusty air predicted to dominate the tropical Atlantic over the next seven days, none of the reliable computer models is predicting Atlantic tropical cyclone formation during the first week of August.
Figure 1. A massive dust storm moves off the coast of Africa in this MODIS image taken at 1:40 UTC July 30, 2013. Image credit: NASA.
How dust affects hurricanes
Saharan dust can affect hurricane activity in several ways:
1) Dust acts as a shield which keeps sunlight from reaching the surface. Thus, large amounts of dust can keep the sea surface temperatures up to 1°C cooler than average in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean, providing hurricanes with less energy to form and grow. Ocean temperatures in the MDR are currently 0.7°F above average, and this anomaly should cool this week as the dust blocks sunlight.
2) The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a layer of dry, dusty Saharan air that rides up over the low-level moist air over the tropical Atlantic. At the boundary between the SAL and low-level moist air where the trade winds blow is the trade wind inversion–a region of the atmosphere where the temperature increases with height. Since atmospheric temperature normally decreases with height, this “inversion” acts to but the brakes on any thunderstorms that try to punch through it. This happens because the air in a thunderstorm’s updraft suddenly encounters a region where the updraft air is cooler and less buoyant than the surrounding air, and thus will not be able to keep moving upward. The dust in the SAL absorbs solar radiation, which heats the air in the trade wind inversion. This makes the inversion stronger, which inhibits the thunderstorms that power a hurricane.
3) Dust may also act to produce more clouds, but this effect needs much more study. If the dust particles are of the right size to serve as “condensation nuclei”–centers around which raindrops can form and grow–the dust can act to make more clouds. Thus, dust could potentially aid in the formation and intensification of hurricanes. However, if the dust acts to make more low-level clouds over the tropical Atlantic, this will reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the ocean, cooling the sea surface temperatures and discouraging hurricane formation (Kaufman et al., 2005.)
Dust in Africa’s Sahel region and Atlantic hurricane activity
The summertime dust that affects Atlantic tropical storms originates over the southwestern Sahara (18° – 22° N) and the northwestern Sahel (15° – 18° N) (Figure 3.) The dust from the Southwest Sahara stays relatively constant from year to year, but the dust from the Northwest Sahel varies significantly, so understanding this variation may be a key factor in improving our forecasts of seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The amount of dust that gets transported over the Atlantic depends on a mix of three main factors: the large scale and local scale weather patterns (windy weather transports more dust), how wet the current rainy season is (wet weather will wash out dust before it gets transported over the Atlantic), and how dry and drought-damaged the soil is. The level of drought experienced in the northwestern Sahel during the previous year is the key factor of the three in determining how much dust gets transported over the Atlantic during hurricane season, according to a January 2004 study published in Geophysical Research Letters published by C. Moulin and I. Chiapello. In 2012 (Figure 3), precipitation across the northwestern Sahel was much above average, which should result in less dust than usual over the Atlantic this fall, increasing the odds of a busy 2013 hurricane season.
Figure 3. Rainfall over the Northwest Sahel region of Africa was about 200% of average during the 2012 rainy season. The heavy rains promoted vigorous vegetation growth in 2013, resulting in less bare ground capable of generating dust. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.
Dr. Amato Evan published a study in Science magazine March 2009 showing that 69% of the increase in Atlantic sea surface temperatures over the past 26 years could be attributed to decreases in the amount of dust in the atmosphere.
Kaufman, Y. J., I. Koren, L. A. Remer, D. Rosenfeld, and Y. Rudich, 2005a: The effect of smoke, dust, and pollution aerosol on shallow cloud development over the Atlantic Ocean. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 11 207–11 212.
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie, a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is headed west at 20 mph towards Hawaii. Satellite images show that Flossie is maintaining a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that are well-organized. The storm is over waters of 25°C, which is about 1°C below the water temperature typically needed to sustain a tropical storm. Flossie peaked in intensity Saturday morning, when the storm had 70 mph winds. As Flossie approaches the Big Island of Hawaii on Monday, these waters will warm to 26°C, but wind shear is expected to be in the moderate range, which should keep Flossie from strengthening. Dry air aloft will likely cause some weakening before landfall Monday morning, and Flossie will likely have top winds of 45 – 55 mph when is passes through the Hawaiian Islands. Flossie’s main threat will be heavy rains, with 6 – 10″ expected over The Big Island and Maui County, and 4 – 8″ in Oahu. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Sunday’s 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center gave Hilo on the Big Island a 33% chance of experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater from Flossie. These odds were 32% for Honolulu and 41% for Kahului.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Flossie taken at approximately 5 pm EDT Saturday July 27, 2013. At the time, Flossie had top winds near 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical storms are uncommon in Hawaii
On average, between four and five tropical cyclones are observed in the Central Pacific every year. This number has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as eleven in 1992 and 1994. August is the peak month, followed by July, then September. Tropical storms and hurricanes are uncommon in the Hawaiian Islands. Only eight named storms have impacted Hawaii in the 34 year period 1979–2012, an average of one storm every four years. Since 1949, the Hawaiian Islands received a direct hit from just two hurricanes–Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. Only one tropical storm has hit the islands since 1949–an unnamed 1958 storm that hit the Big Island. A brief summary of the three most significant hurricanes to affect Hawaii in modern times:
September 1992: Hurricane Iniki was the strongest, deadliest, and most damaging hurricane to affect Hawaii since records began. It hit the island of Kauai as a Category 4 on September 11, killing six and causing $2 billion in damage.
November 1982: Hurricane Iwa was one of Hawaii’s most damaging hurricanes. Although it was only a Category 1 storm, it passed just miles west of Kauai, moving at a speed of nearly 50 miles per hour (80 km/h). Iwa killed one person and did $250 million in damage, making it the second most damaging hurricane to ever hit Hawaii. All the islands reported some surf damage along their southwest facing shores, and wind damage was widespread on Kauai.
August 1959: Hurricane Dot entered the Central Pacific as a Category 4 hurricane just south of Hawaii, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before making landfall on Kauai. Dot brought sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 103 mph to Kilauea Light. Damage was in excess of $6 million. No Dot-related deaths were recorded.
Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 – 2012. During that time span, the Hawaiian Islands received a direct hit from just two hurricanes–Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. One tropical storm also hit, and unnamed 1958 storm that hit the Big Island of Hawaii. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.
Remains of Dorian are worth watching
The remains of Tropical Storm Dorian will be passing just north of northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and just north of Puerto Rico tonight. Satellite images show no signs of a surface circulation, and just a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms associated with the storm. AIr Force hurricane hunter aircraft are on call to investigate Dorian’s remains on Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon, if necessary. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Dorian’s remains a 20% chance of regenerating by Tuesday.
Extreme heat wave in Europe
An extreme heat wave is baking Europe today, and at least five countries have a chance at setting a new all-time national heat record. The most likely candidate is Liechtenstein, where the forecast for Balzers Sunday calls for a high of 95°F. According to wunderground’s International Records database maintained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the current all-time heat record for Liechtenstein is 36°C (96.8°F) set at Vaduz on August 13, 2003.
Monsanto gives up on GM crops in Europe, pursues patenting of conventional crops
Wednesday, July 24, 2013 by: Jonathan Benson, staff writer
(NaturalNews) The world’s most evil corporation, Monsanto, has announced it will cease trying to introduce any new genetically-modified (GM) crops into Europe following years of widespread public opposition to the controversial and untested technology. Instead, the multinational biotechnology behemoth will re-focus its efforts on controlling the conventional seed market in the European Union (EU), an outlandish move that proves the seed giant is still determined, in one way or another, to dominate global agriculture.
Monsanto’s President and Managing Director for Europe, Jose Manuel Madero, recently told Reuters in a phone interview that his company will be withdrawing all existing approval requests for new GMOs in Europe within the next few months. These include five pending approval requests for at least one new variety of GM corn (maize), as well as GM soybeans and GM sugar beets. As of this writing, there is only one GM crop, Monsanto’s MON810 maize, currently approved for cultivation anywhere in Europe.
No matter how hard Monsanto and various others in the biotechnology industry have tried in years past to force GMOs on Europe, the result has almost always been the same: failure. The people of Europe have repeatedly expressed loudly and clearly that they do not want to eat GMOs, and the European Commission (EC) has tended to align its approval process for GMOs with this public sentiment in mind. Thus, GMOs continue to remain largely absent from the European market, with the exception of widely-used animal feed.
“(The requests) have been going nowhere fast for several years,” says Brandon Mitchener, a Monsanto spokesman, about the company’s failed efforts to force GMOs on Europe. “There’s no end in sight.”
Monsanto: If we can’t force Europeans to accept GMOs, we will instead take over their conventional crops
This is good news for Europeans, of course, who will finally have the opportunity to rest a little easier as far as the integrity of their food supply is concerned — this is with the exception of GM animal feed, of course, which is currently imported into the country from places like the U.S. and South America at a rate of more than 30 million metric tons yearly, according to Reuters.
But what Europeans will now have to worry about, sadly, is Monsanto’s new pursuit of controlling their conventional crops. As we here at NaturalNews have been reporting on recently, Monsanto has been taking advantage of a little-known loophole in European patent law that allows the company to literally draw patents on natural crops like broccoli and green beans.
“In the coming weeks, around a dozen new patents will be granted (to Monsanto), covering species such as broccoli, onions, melons, lettuce and cucumber,” explains the food freedom watchdog coalition No Patents on Seeds! about Monsanto’s new business approach. “Monsanto and Syngenta already own more than 50 percent of seed varieties of tomato, paprika and cauliflower registered in the EU.”
In other words, since it could not have its way with GMOs in Europe, Monsanto simply turned to the earth’s natural bounty and gradually claimed it as its own — and the European Patent Office (EPO) continues to facilitate this takeover of the natural food supply in Europe, mostly because the European people remain in the dark about what is actually happening to their agricultural system.
You can help fight Monsanto’s takeover of the European food supply by signing the No Patents on Seeds! online petition: http://www.no-patents-on-seeds.org
The season’s fourth named storm, Tropical Storm Dorian, is here. Born from a strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Monday, Dorian formed unusually far east for so early in the season, at longitude 29.9°W. Only Hurricane Bertha of 2008, which became a tropical storm at 22.9°W longitude on July 3, formed farther to the east so early in the year. Satellite images show that Dorian is a small but well-organized system with a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms. A large area of dry air lies to Dorian’s west, as seen on water vapor satellite images, but Dorian has moistened its environment enough that this dry air should not interfere with development for the next day. Dorian is under a low 5 – 10 knots of wind shear, which will tend to allow slow development. Ocean temperatures are barely adequate for maintaining strength of a tropical storm, about 26.5°C.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Dorian taken at approximately 8 am EDT July 24, 2013. At the time, Dorian had top winds near 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Dorian
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay in the low range through Thursday, then rise to the moderate range Friday through Monday. Ocean temperatures will fall to 25 – 26°C Wednesday night through Thursday night, which may induce some weakening of Dorian. Thereafter, ocean temperatures will rise again, but wind shear will rise. This increase in wind shear will be capable of causing weakening, since there will still be a large area of dry air to Dorian’s west that the shear may be able to bring into Dorian’s core. Given its small size, Dorian is capable of relatively large changes in intensity in a short amount of time, and it would not surprise me if the storm dissipated by the end of the week–or became a Category 1 hurricane. However, the official NHC forecast of a tropical storm passing just north of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday is the most likely outcome; the 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Dorian a 6% chance of being a hurricane at that time. Dorian should maintain a west-northwest track through the week, and spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Sunday. The usually reliable European model (ECMWF) has Dorian passing several hundred miles to the north of the Lesser Antilles Islands, while the other models show Dorian passing closer, within 100 miles. It currently appears that Dorian will be a potential threat to the Bahama Islands, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast next week. There will be a trough of low pressure capable of recurving Dorian out to sea before the storm reaches the Bahamas and U.S., but this trough is currently depicted as being fairly weak, reducing the chances of Dorian missing the Bahamas and U.S. East Coast.
Figure 2. Tracks of all Atlantic tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes (tropical cyclones) occurring in the months of June and July off the coast of Africa. Only Bertha of 2008 became a named storm farther east so early in the year, compared to Tropical Storm Dorian. Reliable satellite records of Eastern Atlantic tropical cyclones go back to 1966. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.
Update : the expected shaking at some Chinese cities based on the data from USGS (M5.9). Chinese have M6.6 but deeper than USGS which may after all have the same intensity.
Update : The Chinese seismological authority has reported a M6.6 at a depth of 20 km, an even grimmer perspective than the M5.9 from USGS on which the data below have been calculated. There is no reason not to believe the data from the Chinese as they are highly specialized in earthquakes.
Update : USGS expects a very strong MMI VII shaking for approx. 19,000 people, a strong shaking for 150,000 people and a moderate shaking for 379,000 people.
A very dangerous earthquake struck the Gansu province, China
13km (8mi) E of Chabu, China
151km (94mi) W of Beidao, China
154km (96mi) SE of Linxia, China
177km (110mi) SSE of Lanzhou, China
1233km (766mi) WSW of Beijing, China
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-07-22 07:45:57
GMT/UTC Time : 2013-07-21 23:45:57
Depth (Hypocenter) : 10 km
Update 13:46 UTC : Good and important news from the earthquake region. The ministry of transportation has ended all repair work at the National and Provincial roads in the earthquake region. This will enable relief and rescue trucks to transport the necessary equipment closer to the epicenter area.
Update 12:51 UTC : Something ER just learned now in reading the earthquake responsive : Veterinary emergency task group that works closely together with the Ministry of agriculture to assess asap all animal related topics, like prevent dead animals becoming sources sickness, getting abandoned animals to their owner, helping farmers manage their stock. This service is extremely important in rural areas where animals are often the only wealth of the owner. The teams include also veterinarians.
Update 12:15 UTC : Just like it happened in the Sichuan earthquake a couple of months ago, the Central Disaster Management team has taken over the lead in the rescue and relief efforts. Premier Li Keqying will overview personally every effort going on for rescue and relief. Earthquakes in China are divided into different categories. Some do only need local county response, others Province and the very big ones are managed by the Central Government.
An earthquake which is managed buy the Central Bejing Government has all possible power to engage whatever means possible. Army, police even temporarily allocation of civilian aircraft lies in their power.
We can make sure to our readers that this response is by far the most efficient in the world. Will it be perfect ? Never, but since we cover almost every earthquake in the world who needs assistance, we know what we are talking about. Congratulations to the Chinese response teams.
Premier Li Keqying on his way to the recent Sichuan earthquake to manage relief and rescue efforts
Update 11:19 UTC : A video from a China News channel with a reporter in the earthquake damaged areas (can be slow to load)
Important Update 10:22 UTC :
Sad to report that the victim numbers are increasing by the hour (these are all “at least” numbers): – 75 people are now confirmed as being killed – 14 have been recorded as missing – 584 people are being treated for all kinds of injuries
– Chinese seismologists have said that the shaking intensity near the epicenter must have been VIII or “severe shaking”
Update 10:30 UTC : The experts of the China Earthquake Network have given more details about the technicalities behind the quake. They speak about the influence of stronger earthquakes the last 10 years on the faults that triggered this earthquake. The fault is likely a North South direction fault. Ano no major earthquake happened in this area since 1900 (see also our bottom map), stress has accumulated and has been released now. Perfectly normal are telling the scientists. 405 aftershocks so far, some of them +5. They expect this to go on for at least a week with +5 still possible. For that reason they ask people to be super-careful and not to live in damaged houses. For those camping in the open, they ask people to be careful and look at the terrain at all sides, mainly to avoid secondary geological elements like landslides, flash floods, etc.
Update 10:15 UTC : To imagine better the destruction the earthquake has inflicted, the picture below.
At least 14 people are still missing.
Update 10:00 UTC : Weather during and immediately after an earthquake is incredibly important both for the chance on landslides and the way rescue has to be organized and relief goods to be distributed. Bernhard Mühr from KIT Karlsruhe has made a short study on what to expect in the earthquake area until the end of July. The conclusion of this in-depth weather forecast : very good considering the monsoon period.
Brief Meteorological and Climatological Overview Minxian and Zhangxian Districts, Gansu, China
Issued: Monday, July 22, 2013 Climatological Overview
There is a strong gradient in precipitation from Lantschau southward. The districts hit by the earthquake, Minxian and Zhangxian, expect significantly more rain than Lantschau. The monthly rain amounts during the summer months are about twice as much (~100-150 mm).
The districts in many places have rugged terrain, narrow valleys are located between mountain ranges that rise to more than 3000 meters.
Monsoon rains often are associated with thunderstorms and are of great intensity. These downpours frequently lead to sudden rise of river levels, flooding and might trigger landslides.
Long term average (1961-1990) mean of rain in July in south-east asia. Red rectangle indicates the earthquake region. Source: www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de, Data source: Climate Research Unit
Rain forecast
The latest GFS-model run (July 22, 2013, 00 UTC) doesn’t show much rain for the next 8 days in the affected area. Widespread and large rain amounts are not to be expected. However, in unstable monsoon airmasses localized rain areas and thunderstorms might occur any time. Their intensity can be large and thus cause problems with river levels and landslides at places.
RaiRRain forecast: Accumulated rain during the next 8 days until July 30, 2013. In the region hit by the earthquake (rectangle) large and widespread rain amounts are not very likely until end of month.
Source: www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de; Data source: GFS model run, July 22, 2013, 00 UTC
Update 09:34 UTC : The number of injured persons has increased to 462 (from 412)
As we have expected it fropm almost immediately after the earthquake hit, landslides have also been triggered. At least 10 houses have been buried in Meixian, Minxian county.
Update 08:51 UTC : Chinese are far better pupils if it comes to earthquake preparedness than most other countries in the world. One example : once out of the building, most people evacuate to the middle of the street or in open places.
Update 08:47 UTC : A picture we will see more and more in the future. Death toll will decrease considerably in the future due to earthquake resistant (new) houses and apartment buildings. The villages in the rural areas do not have the money to build this way and people are in great majority still living in very old primitive houses. Conclusion : less and less fatalities in (modern) cities and only a fraction less in rural areas.
Power Will Allow for More Precise Forecast
Reuters / Stringer
Thousands of people flock to look at the devastated town of Beichuan on May 12, 2009 which was destroyed in the May 12, 2008 Sichuan earthquake (AFP Photo / Peter Parks)
