Major geological shift for planet: NOAA/NGDC image of the Atlantic crustal age of the ocean floor. Geologists have detected the first evidence that a passive margin in the Atlantic ocean is becoming active. The team mapped the ocean floor and found it was beginning to fracture, indicating tectonic activity around the apparently passive South West Iberia plate margin.
Check this out:
Citizens of Shambala are releasing powerful vibrating energy. It sounds like a extreme combined energy of healing mantra sounds. On the surface the Tibetan monks that are meditating in this cave of the spirits for a long time are saying that this started to happen only recently. They also were saying that the spirits telepathically transmitted to them that something major is going to happen soon. The Earth is ringing like a bell more and more recently. Its all happening guys.
No human interference in the audio file. You can download the original file Russian scientists recorded on: http://files.mail.ru/SGYD94
The good part is that we are not alone in this major planetary shift and I’m sure that people of Shamballa will do their best to protect all life on Earth when time comes.
Namaste,
Pane
Here is the link to the youtube video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZLlgpAqcW4&feature=youtu.be
For the first time in history, the U.S. government has ordered that flow of Colorado River water from the 50-year-old Glen Canyon Dam be slashed, due to a water crisis brought about by the region’s historic 14-year drought. On Friday, the Federal Bureau of Reclamation–a division of the Department of Interior that manages water and electric power in the West–announced that it would cut water released from Lake Powell’s Glen Canyon Dam by 750,000 acre-feet in 2014. An acre-foot is the amount of water that will cover an acre of land one foot deep; 750,000 acre-feet is enough water to supply at least 750,000 homes for one year. The flow reduction will leave the Colorado River 9% below the 8.23 million acre feet that is supposed to be supplied downstream to Lake Mead for use in California, Nevada, Arizona and Mexico under the Colorado River Compact of 1922 and later agreements. “This is the worst 14-year drought period in the last hundred years,” said Upper Colorado Regional Director Larry Walkoviak in a Bureau of Reclamation press release.
In the winter of 2005, Lake Powell reached its lowest level since filling, an elevation 150′ below full pool. Lake levels recovered some in during 2005 – 2011, but the resurgence of severe to extreme drought conditions have provoked a steep decline in 2012 and 2013, with the lake falling 35′ over the past year. As of August 18, 2013, Lake Powell was 109′ below full pool (45% of capacity), and was falling at a rate of one foot every six days.
Figure 1. Satellite comparisons of water levels in Arizona and Utah’s Lake Powell between 1999 and 2013 show a huge reduction in the amount of water in the lake. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Figure 2. From October 1, 2012 – July 31, 2013, precipitation over the Colorado River Watershed was about 80% of average. Image credit: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
Las Vegas’ Water Supply, Lake Mead, Near a Record Low
Downstream of Lake Powell lies Lake Mead, filled in 1936 when Hoover Dam was completed. Lake Mead supplies Las Vegas with ninety percent of its drinking water, and the water level of Lake Mead is expected to fall by eight feet in 2014 due to the lower water flow levels out of Lake Powell ordered on Friday. Lake Mead has fallen by 100 feet since the current 14-year drought began in 2000, and the higher of the two intake pipes used to supply Las Vegas with water from the lake is in danger of running dry. As a result, a seven-year, $800 million project is underway by the Southern Nevada Water Authority to build a third intake pipe that will tap the deepest part of the reservoir. This so-called “third straw” is scheduled to be available late in 2014, which may be cutting it close, if the Colorado River watershed experiences another year of drought as severe as in 2012 – 2013. Southern Nevada has done well to reduce water usage, though–the region’s annual water consumption decreased by nearly 29 billion gallons between 2002 and 2012, despite a population increase of more than 400,000 during that span.
Figure 3. Lake Mead water levels from 1938 – 2013 in July show a precipitous drop since drought conditions gripped the Western U.S. in 2000. The Lake Mead photo was taken by wunderphotographer LAjoneson June 29, 2007, when the lake had a “bathtub ring” 109′ tall. Water level data from The Bureau of Reclamation.
Figure 4. Workers handle the main drive sections of the tunnel boring machine that is drilling a 3-mile long tunnel through solid rock to supply Las Vegas with water from Lake Mead. The new intake tunnel is designed to maintain the ability to draw upon Colorado River water at lake elevations as low as 1,000 feet above sea level. The lake already has two intake pipes, and the higher of these will go dry when the lake level hits 1050′ – 1075′. As of August 2013, the Lake Mead water level was 1106′ above sea level, which is 114′ below full pool, but 24′ above the record low water level of 1081′ set in November 2010. Image credit: Southern Nevada Water Authority.
Drought conditions worsen over Southwest U.S. in August
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the Western U.S. drought peaked in July 2002, when 79% of the West was in at least severe drought, and 45% of the region was in the two highest categories of drought–extreme to exceptional. However, drought conditions have been steadily intensifying this summer. The August 13, 2013 Drought Monitor report showed that drought conditions in the Western U.S. are now the worst since 2004, with 78% of the West in at least severe drought, and 20% in the two highest categories of drought, extreme and exceptional. The latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued on August 15, calls for drought to remain entrenched over the large majority of the Western U.S. through the end of November.
Figure 5. As of August 13, 2013, severe to exceptional drought gripped nearly all of the Colorado RIver’s watershed in Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming, California, and Colorado. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC.
Causes of the great Western U.S. drought
It is well-known that natural variations in sea surface temperature patterns, such as seen from the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, can influence storm tracks and can cause prolonged periods of drought. These natural variations likely had a hand in causing the great 2000 – 2013 Western U.S. drought. However, changes in the amount of sea ice covering the Arctic can also have a major impact on Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. We must consider if global warming, which has led to a 50% decline in summer Arctic sea ice extent since 1979, may be altering storm tracks and contributing to drought. In 2004, Lisa Sloan, professor of Earth sciences at UC Santa Cruz, and her graduate student Jacob Sewall published an article in Geophysical Research Letters, Disappearing Arctic sea ice reduces available water in the American west. An accompanying news release explained that their climate models found “a significant reduction in rain and snowfall in the American West” as a result of Arctic sea ice loss:
What they found was a change in atmospheric circulation patterns that caused a small northward shift in the paths of winter storms over western North America. This shift in winter storm tracks resulted in significantly reduced winter precipitation from southern British Columbia to the Gulf of California. In some areas, average annual precipitation dropped by as much as 30 percent. The reductions were greatest along the West Coast, with lesser changes further inland. But even as far inland as the Rocky Mountains, winter precipitation fell by 17 percent.
The sea ice acts like a lid over the ocean surface during the winter, blocking the transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, Sewall explained. Where the sea ice is reduced, heat transfer from the ocean warms the atmosphere, resulting in a rising column of relatively warm air. The shift in storm tracks over North America was linked to the formation of these columns of warmer air over areas of reduced sea ice in the Greenland Sea and a few other locations.
“I think the hypothesis from 2004 and 2005 is being borne out by current changes. The only real difference is that reality is moving faster then we though/hoped it would almost a decade ago.”
Figure 6. The area of the Western U.S. in drought peaked during 2002 – 2004, but during 2013 has been approaching levels not seen since 2004. Image credit: U.S. Drought Portal.
Western North America drought of 2000 – 2004 the worst in over 800 years
The Colorado River’s water woes are due to an extraordinary 14-year drought that began in 2000, which peaked during 2000 – 2004. A 2012 study titled, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, found that the 2000 – 2004 drought was the most severe Western North America event of its kind since the last mega drought over 800 years ago, during the years 1146 – 1151. The paper analyzed the latest generation of climate models used for the 2013 IPCC report, which project that the weather conditions that spawned the 2000 – 2004 drought will be the new normal in the Western U.S. by 2030, and will be considered extremely wet by the year 2100. If these dire predictions of a coming “megadrought” are anywhere close to correct, it will be extremely challenging for the Southwest U.S. to support a growing population in the coming decades.
Figure 7. Normalized precipitation over Western North America (five-year mean) from 22 climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, as summarized by Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America. The horizontal line marks the precipitation level of the 2000 – 2004 drought, the worst of the past 800 years. Droughts of this intensity are predicted to be the new normal by 2030, and will be considered an outlier of extreme wetness by 2100. The paper states: “This impending drydown of western North America is consistent with present trends in snowpack decline as well as expected in-creases in aridity and extreme climate events,including drought, and is driven by anthropogenically forced increases in temperature with coincident increases in evapotranspiration and decreases in soil moisture. Although regional precipitation patterns are difficult to forecast, climate models tend to underestimate the extent and severity of drought relative to available observations. As such, actual reductions in precipitation may be greater than shown. Forecasted precipitation patterns are consistent with a probable twenty-first century megadrought.” Image credit: Schwalm et al., 2012, Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nature Geoscience 5, 551-555, Published online 29 JULY 2012, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1529, www.nature.com/naturegeoscience.
Underwater Avalanche! Melting Ice Caps Could Trigger Tsunamis
Charles Q. Choi, OurAmazingPlanet Contributor | August 16, 2013
Example of a submarine landslide complex along the southern New England continental margin, about 100 miles (161 kilometers) south of Cape Cod, Mass. The 3D perspective includes the seafloor seismic imaging. The image highlights the relationships between the seafloor structure along the continental slope, such as shallow faults (black lines), and underwater landslides. Data used to construct this image were collected by the USGS and NOAA.
Credit: Daniel Brothers
If melting ice caps trigger rapid sea level rise, the strain that the edges of continents could experience might set off underwater landslides, new research suggests.
Submarine landslides happen on every continental margin, the underwater parts of continental plates bordering oceanic plates. These underwater avalanches, which can happen when underwater slopes get hit by earthquakes or otherwise have too much weight loaded onto them, can generate dangerous tsunamis.
A staggering half of all the Earth moved by submarine landslides over the past 125,000 years apparently happened between 8,000 and 15,000 years ago. “This time period coincides with the period of most rapid sea level rise following the end of the last ice age,” said study co-author Daniel Brothers, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Coastal and Marine Science Center in Woods Hole, Mass.
Since these prehistoric disasters coincided with changes in climate, previous research suggested natural global warming might have been their cause, but what exactly the link might be was unclear. To learn more, Brothers and his colleagues generated 3D computer models of the effects of 395 feet (120 meters) of sea level rise on the continental margins off North Carolina and Brazil’s Amazon coast
The rapid sea level rise that happened between 8,000 and 15,000 years ago was due to melting ice caps, which were originally hundreds to thousands of feet high. These glaciers placed weight on the planet’s rocky surface, building stress on faults in the Earth for millennia. The later thinning and retreat of these glaciers raised sea levels by about 395 feet, increasing the amount of pressure these critically stressed faults experienced across their entire length by an amount similar to that of the average human bite. This would be enough pressure to set off the faults, triggering underwater landslides, the models showed.
The scientists added that such underwater landslides could have helped release vast quantities of methane, a greenhouse gas, from the seabed. This could have, in turn, driven profound changes in the oceans and the atmosphere, such as the warming of the climate.
Brothers and his colleagues Karen Luttrell and Jason Chaytor detailed their findings online July 22 in the journal Geology.
Update 07:10 UTC : Nothing really new since our 06:08 update. The NZ press is mainly zooming in to small stories of the panic and the secondary effects like heavy traffic, experience reports of minor damage etc. All the aftershocks of M2.9 or greater will be listed below.
Update 06:08 UTC : One building south of Seddon nearly collapsed by the mainshock. Some others in Marlborough region were also severly damaged, while the damage on North Island (Wellington region) is only minor.
Update 06:01 UTC : GeoNet has changed the data to Magnitude 6.0. USGS and EMSC give Magnitude 5.9 (USGS expecting a heavy intensity again). The epicenter location is again close to Seddon, the quake was felt in many parts of New Zealand. New damage is likely.
In the meantime buildings in Seddon were ckcked for damage by the mainshock. Many of the buildings were damaged, mainly fallen chimneys and cracked walls and roofs are reported. No building collapsed, nobody was injured.
Update 05:38 UTC : Another very strong quake with Magnitude 6.3 hit this are a couple of minutes ago, according to GeoNet. These data are still prelimimary.
Update 05:28 UTC : Two injured people were carried to a hospital in Blenheim. There are not many details about the kind of injuries but reports indicate they are only minor.
Update 04:43 UTC : Taken into account the strong Magnitude and the extremely shallow Hypocenter, we are happy that no injuries and even fatalities have been reported. Also the damage is within an acceptable range as no houses really collapsed. The slight to moderate damage will however be reported in big numbers. The most reports will come from Seddon, followed by Blenheim and then by Wellington.
Update 04:32 UTC : GNS Science has recalculated the data and is now reporting an updated value of M6.6 !
Update 04:32 UTC : NZ Media are starting to exaggerate : Monster Quake hit … We can truly say that this was a big quake but not a monster quake. Based on security camera images we saw some moderate shaking in Wellington.
Update 04:25 UTC : The biggest damage should be looked at in the Seddon area. Gradually Seddon information and pictures are reaching us, like the one below from Seddon. Unsafe to live in, it will probably get a RED STICKER on the door from the NZQC after inspection.
Twitter image courtesy and copyright from @breakfastsam
Update 04:15 UTC : A house has been badly damaged in Ward, south of Seddon + some power lines down in the Seddon area
Update 04:06 UTC : SH 1 currently closed between Blenheim and Kaikoura. Check NZTA website for latest highway conditions:
http://t.co/d6e18GP2XW
Update 04:02 UTC : A number of people have been freed from lifts in the Wellington CBD which stopped when the quake struck.
Update 04:00 UTC : Earlier reports of a collapsed house in between Blenheim and Seddon looked to be incorrect. So far only a lot of slight damage in the Marlborough area (Seddon, Blenheim etc) and also in the Wellington area.
Typical picture after such an earthquake. A supermarket in Wellington !
Twitter image courtesy and copyright @LivLacey
Update 03:52 UTC : The NZ Stock Exchange has been reopened again
Update 03:46 UTC : Damage like the picture below will occur in many places. The NZ Earthquake Commission will have a lot of work the following days to follow up the many filed damage reports.
Twitter image courtesy and copyright @menabassily NZ
Update 03:44 UTC : The NZ stock exchange has stopped trading. About 600 customers are reportedly without power in Makara, Wrights Hill and Wainuiomata following the quake
Update 03:44 UTC : The earthquake has been felt all over both islands. Power is still on the Wellington CBD (Central Business District) and traffic is flowing normally, however some power lines are reported to be down and there are problems with some phones.
Tranzmetro has suspended all its rail and bus services in Wellington and Wellington Airport advises the runway is temporarily closed for inspection following the quake.
Update 03:42 UTC : Focal Mechanism in line with the earlier Cook Strait M6.5 earthquake if based on USGS FM
Update 03:38 UTC : South of Blenheim, towards Seddon, roads are partially blocked by rockfalls and are cracked in some areas.
Update 03:34 UTC : Luckily only reports of what we call “minor damage” in the New Zealand press so far. Minor damage is like broken windows, cracks in walls, fallen tiles etc.
Update 03:31 UTC : What strikes us in the New Zealand press is that all of them are talking about a “Wellington” earthquake and not about a Seddon earthquake . The distance to Wellington is far greater than to Seddon.
Update 03:27 UTC : We expect most damage in the whole North Eastern part of the South Island with some slight damage even at the south of the North Island. Seddon, only located at 10 km of the epicenter is most at risk for damage followed by Blenheim.
Update 03:22 UTC : Based on what we experienced with the M6.5 mainshock a little while ago a chain of aftershocks in the same area may be expected.
Update 03:20 UTC : A lot of different data below like USGS who reports a M6.8 at a depth of 10.6 km. We prefer however tu use the Geonet / GNS science data who are reporting M6.2 at a depth of 8 km. Even more a difference in epicenter location. The preliminary USGS value is putting the epicenter more below land vs the Geonet versions who is locating the epicenter also below land but close to the coast.
Update 03:18 UTC : these aftershocks will go on for quiet some time ane very strong ones are being possible.
Update : The seismogram below reveals a long chain of powerful aftershocks, some of them more than M5.
Very dangerous aftershock below land in New Zealand. Epicenter is very different with each reporting agency. Geonet New Zealand is locating the epicenter at the land-tip of the South Island. The earlier mainshock and most of the aftershocks were located in the sea.
Image courtesy Geonet New Zealand
10 km south-east of Seddon
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.2
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-08-16 14:31:05
Very Strong earthquake out of the Piura coast in Northern Peru
Last update: August 12, 2013 at 10:36 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update 10:34 UTC : IGP Peru reports the following intensities, in line with other agencies :
MMI IV (light shaking) at Paita
MMI III-II (weak to very weak shaking) at Talara and Sullana
Update 10:25 UTC : based on the current (preliminary) data, earthquake-report.com expects this earthquake to be harmless but small damage like cracks in walls, fallen tiles etc are always possible.
The earthquake who occurred far enough out of the coast to be harmless for the coastal area has been reported with a (theoretical) max. light shaking on the coast. The very shallow hypocenter is normal as it is the beginning of the subduction plate (Nazca plate who subducts the South American plate)
94km (58mi) WSW of Paita, Peru
102km (63mi) WSW of Salinera Colan, Peru
115km (71mi) SW of Talara, Peru
121km (75mi) W of Sechura, Peru
685km (426mi) SSW of Quito, Ecuador
Moderate earthquake on Big Island (Hawaii) near Kilauea
Last update: August 11, 2013 at 4:16 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Update 16:15 UTC : Some of our readers from Hon0lulu told os they felt the quake. Honolulu is nearly 350 km northwest of the epicenter
The epicenter of this quake was approx. 7 km south of Halema’uma’u crater (Kilauea volcano) in a low populated area of Big Island. Nevertheless, the quake was felt on nearly the whole island and also in some parts of Maui.
We do not expect any serious damage from this quake.
Nearby cities
10km (6mi) SSW of Volcano, Hawaii
42km (26mi) SW of Hawaiian Paradise Park, Hawaii
47km (29mi) SSW of Hilo, Hawaii
83km (52mi) ESE of Kailua-Kona, Hawaii
347km (216mi) SE of Honolulu, Hawaii
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 4.6
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-08-11 05:54:05
Earth’s strongest and most dangerous tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor, which is closing in on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon with 150 mph sustained winds. Landfall is expected at approximately 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Sunday near Casigran. Satellite imagery shows a formidable storm with well-organized spiral bands, a prominent 15-mile diameter eye, and good (but not excellent) upper-level outflow. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 – 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 – 10 knots. Theoretically, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) that Utor can achieve under these conditions is sustained winds of 185 mph. However, Utor will not have time to reach that strength before encountering Luzon. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Luzon. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Utor will likely weaken to a Category 1 storm as it passes over Luzon, but is expected to re-intensify to a Category 2 storm before hitting China a few hundred miles south of Hong Kong about 20 UTC on Tuesday.
Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific–in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Typhoon Utor is called Typhoon Labuyo in the Philippines. Utor’s 150 mph winds make it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth’s previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 04:30 UTC on Sunday, August 11. Image credit: NASA.
The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth’s deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.
Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 – 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)
Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.
As we stand on the cusp of the peak part of hurricane season, all of the major groups that perform long-range seasonal hurricane forecasts are still calling for an active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasts an above-normal and possibly very active Atlantic hurricane season in 2013, in their August 8 outlook. They give a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of an near-normal season, and 5% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 13 – 19 named storms, 6 – 9 hurricanes, and 3 – 5 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 120% – 190% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 16 named storms, 7.5 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 155% of normal. This is well above the 1981 – 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 – 2012 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median.
Figure 1. Tropical Storm Dorian on July 25, 2013, when the storm reached peak intensity–sustained winds of 60 mph. Formation of early-season tropical storms like Chantal and Dorian in June and July in the deep tropics is usually a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.
NOAA cites five main reasons to expect an active remainder of hurricane season:
1) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean. As of August 9, SST were 0.4°C (0.8°F) above average.
2) Trade winds are weaker than average across the MDR, which has caused the African Monsoon to grow wetter and stronger, the amount of spin over the MDR to increase, and the amount of vertical wind shear to decrease.
3) No El Niño event is present or expected this fall.
4) There have been two early-season tropical storms in the deep tropics (Tropical Storms Chantal and Dorian), which is generally a harbinger of an above-normal season.
5) We are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995.
Colorado State predicts a much above-average hurricane season
A much above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2013, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 142. The forecast calls for an above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (40% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (40% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also above average, at 53% (42% is average.)
Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: cool neutral ENSO conditions and slightly above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Those five years were 2008, a very active year with 16 named storms and 4 major hurricanes–Gustav, Ike, Paloma, and Omar; 2007, an active year with 15 named storms and two Category 5 storms–Dean and Felix; 1996, an above average year with 13 named storms and 6 major hurricanes–Edouard, Hortense, Fran, Bertha, Isidore, and Lili; 1966, an average year with 11 named storms and 3 major hurricanes–Inez, Alma, and Faith; and 1952, a below average year with 7 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. The average activity during these five analogue years was 12.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes.
TSR predicts an above-average hurricane season: 14.8 named storms
The August 6 forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 14.8 named storms, 6.9 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 121. The long-term averages for the past 63 years are 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 103. TSR rates their skill level as good for these August forecasts–47% – 59% higher than a “no-skill” forecast made using climatology. TSR predicts a 58% chance that U.S. land falling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 16% chance it will be below average. They project that 4 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.8 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2012 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.4 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls just 9% – 18% higher than a “no-skill” forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.
TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July – September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August – September 2013 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. Their model is calling for warmer than average SSTs and near average trade winds during these periods, and both of these factors should act to increase hurricane and tropical storm activity.
Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.
Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2003-2012, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 – 1999) climatology, and a 2003 – 2012 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
FSU predicts an above-average hurricane season: 15 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fifth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 30, calling for a 70% probability of 12 – 17 named storms and 5 – 10 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 135. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been one of the best ones over the past four years:
2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes
2012 prediction: 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes
Penn State predicts an above-average hurricane season: 16 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State’s Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an active Atlantic hurricane season with 16 named storms, plus or minus 4 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2013 the May 0.87°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.
The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:
2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 10.5 named storms, Actual: 19
UK Met Office predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 14 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 13, calls for slightly above normal activity, with 14 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 130. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET model is done strictly using two dynamical global seasonal prediction systems: the Met Office GloSea5 system and ECMWF system 4. In 2012, the Met Office forecast was for 10 tropical storms and an ACE index of 90. The actual numbers were 19 named storms and an ACE index of 123.
Figure 4. Total 2013 Atlantic hurricane season activity as predicted by twelve different groups.
NOAA predicts a below-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season NOAA’s pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 23, calls for a below-average season, with 11 – 16 named storms, 5 – 8 hurricanes, 1 – 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 60% – 105% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 13.5 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 82% of average. The 1981 – 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season NOAA’s pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 22, calls for a below-average season, with 1 – 3 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 – 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.
West Pacific typhoon season forecast not available this year
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong usually issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but did not do so in 2012 or 2013. An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea.
Quiet in the Atlantic this weekend
There are no Atlantic threat areas to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. However, there are some indications that the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic will become more conducive for tropical storm formation beginning around August 15. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 – 60 days, may move into the Atlantic then, increasing tropical storm formation odds. At the same time, the computer models are indicating an increase in moisture over the tropical Atlantic, due to a series of tropical waves expected to push off of the coast of Africa. There will also be several eastward-moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) traversing the Atlantic during that period. These atmospheric disturbances have a great deal of upward-moving air, which helps strengthen the updrafts of tropical disturbances. Formation of the Eastern Pacific’s Hurricane Gil and Henriette were aided by CCKWs. These same CCKWs will cross into the Atlantic and increase the odds of tropical storm formation during the period August 15 – 20.
Moderate earthquake near Innsbruck, Austria on August 9, 2013
Last update: August 9, 2013 at 12:13 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Update 11:17 UTC : According to ORF (Austrian television) a crack appeared in a house in Innsbruck.
Update 11:06 UTC : Below the seismogram as recorded by the University of München, Germany from this earthquake.
The earthquake was well felt in the greater epicenter area. Earthquakes are not abnormal in the Alps. Most of them are however not felt by humans.
Epicenter very close to Innsbruck
A, earthquake with this Magnitude will surely NOT be damaging
152 km E of Vaduz, Liechtenstein / pop: 5,197 / local time: 12:44:10.0 2013-08-09
12 km NE of Innsbruck, Austria / pop: 112,467 / local time: 12:44:10.0 2013-08-09
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 3.7
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-08-09 12:44:10
