2013 – 2014 Winter Forecast Released From TheWeatherSpace.com
NOTE: The ONLY Way Above Normal is CALIFORNIA for Precipitation … It is not the orange color in the Eastern USA … Orange is Below normal precip!
NOTE: This is the AVERAGE of all three months, Dec/Jan/Feb …
Dec – nationwide warm
Jan – Warm west, cold east
Feb – nationwide warm
Discussion: Storm pattern for this does not begin till December so anything before this does not count. During the main winter season of December, January, and February we will see most of he USA under above average temperatures. With an active southern jet stream and split flow pattern over the Pacific Northwest, this looks to bring the storm track across the Southern USA, impacting California with above average precipitation. Although this is not an El Nino year, this forecast is made by other means not disclosed.
The active southern branch of the jet will bring above average temperatures to most of the country, with the exception of the extreme Northeastern part from New England through Maine where temperatures will be below normal with an active snow track.
Areas across Texas and into Florida will be in this southern branch jet stream, which means that a number of strong surface lows will develop and bring above average precipitation to both states. In fact, this pattern brings severe thunderstorms and tornadoes to Florida, and possibly another March 1993 type event.
Furthermore the storm track will go from Florida up through the New England / Northeastern USA. Despite being above average in temperatures for the season, cold shots will always be likely and one or two storms may become strong nor’easters as this pattern favors such …
The pattern brings surface lows through KS/MO/IA for Blizzard Conditions across Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota. This will become the norm if lows branch off at the surface from the southern branch jet stream.
The pattern also favors normal temperatures for the Pacific Northwest, with normal rainfall … some areas will see below normal rainfall in those spots though. This season does not favor an active storm season for the Pacific Northwest.
Massive extremely dangerous earthquake in Bohol, Philippines – At least 198 people killed, 11 missing, over 600 injured, around 4 billion PHP damage, 7 billion PHP reconstruction costs.
Last update: October 24, 2013 at 9:33 am by By Armand Vervaeck and James Daniell
Understanding the Bohol, Philippines earthquake
What happened exactly in Bohol?
At 8:12 AM on 15 October 2013, Tuesday, a destructive earthquake of magnitude 7.2 shook the island of Bohol and nearby provinces. Smaller-magnitude earthquakes followed afterwards, and as of 1:00 pm, 16 October 2013, 885 earthquakes have been recorded by the PHIVOLCS seismic monitoring network. At least 15 events were reportedly felt in the epicentral area. The main shock and succeeding aftershocks were located in the vicinity of Bohol. These recorded events were shallow, with a depth of at most 32 kilometers. Based on spatial distribution of succeeding events and characteristics of the earthquake, the event is tectonic in origin.
Based on preliminary intensity reports, the strongest ground shaking at PEIS VII (comparable with MMI VIII) was felt at Tagbilaran City and several cities in the province of Cebu. Neighboring island provinces of Cebu, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Camiguin, Panay, Leyte, and several areas in northeastern Mindanao felt the earthquake at varying intensities of PEIS I-VI.
Moderate-magnitude (M5 to 6.9) earthquakes have also affected Bohol Island in the past!
On 08 February 1990, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake occurred at Bohol generated by an offshore reverse fault east of the island. Sixteen municipalities felt the strongest intensity of ground shaking at PEIS VIII. There were reports of severe property damages, numerous casualties, hundreds injured, and several thousands homeless. The towns of Jagna, Duero, Guindulman, Garcia Hernandez, and Valencia experienced tsunami inundation.
Why do earthquakes occur in Bohol?
Bohol Island is one of the seismically active areas in the country. Instrumental monitoring of earthquakes for the past century has detected many small to moderate-magnitude earthquakes in Bohol Island. There is at least one known earthquake generator on the island, the East Bohol Fault. In addition, there are other local faults which can be sources of small to large magnitude earthquakes. Earthquakes can also occur offshore or undersea because of local offshore faults near the island or trenches in the vicinity of the region.
Can these present earthquakes indicate volcanic activity? No. There are no volcanoes in Bohol Island.
What can we expect from the current earthquake activity?
The current seismic trend indicates that the magnitude 7.2 earthquake on 15 October 2013 is the mainshock, and the succeeding small magnitude earthquakes are the aftershocks. Aftershocks are expected, some of which will be felt (ER:and some of them might be dangerous). These may continue for weeks to months, but diminishing in number and strength as time passes. In this case, a higher magnitude earthquake related to this event is no longer expected to occur (ER: True, not related to this event, but as earthquakes cannot be predicted and as the Philippines have many fault systems, a new powerful earthquake can never be excluded).
What can we expect after a large-magnitude/high-intensity earthquake like this?
People are reminded to be cautious of structures visibly weakened or with signs of damage by the 15 October 2013 earthquake, as these may be further damaged by succeeding earthquakes. Strong ground shaking may cause extensive damage to or even the collapse of houses, buildings, bridges, and other infrastructures. Collapsed structures usually account for most of the casualties during a strong earthquake. Falling objects may also cause injuries.
Congratulations to Phivolcs Philippines for their very good explanation of this earthquake
Why are some places sinking and is the sea retreating away from the shore in other locations ?
Answer : deformation and partly liquefaction. In some locations
Isla Batasan is one of the islands located between Bohol and Cebu. It is experiencing sudden floods, causing its residents to believe that their island is slowly sinking. Phivolcs explains that there is indeed a big possibility that some islands may start sinking after the earthquake, due to liquefaction and earthquake deformation. Liquefaction happens when the soil loses its strength and stiffness due to an earthquake, causing it to soften and behave like liquid. Earthquake deformation, on the other hand, refers to a change in the original shape of a material.
Retreating sea : This can only be explained by an upthrust of some parts of the island. More detailed measurements in the near future will show serious deformations as can be seen on the images below. The focal mechanism below shows a mainly thrust earthquake = 2 parts of the fault are pressed into each other. The earthquake was triggered when the extreme forces became too big. The released energy did create all the deformations.
Retreating see in the thrust part of the island
Sinkholes are also generated by the shaking of the underground. Some sinkholes are produced when underground caves are caving in (the island of Bohol had a lot of caves) others are made by the shaking of loose material (some sources say that limestone is abundant in the islands).
Tectonic summary according to the USGS (a little more detailed)
The October 15, 2013 M 7.1 earthquake near the city of Catigbian on Bohol Island, Philippines, occurred as the result of shallow reverse faulting on a moderately inclined fault dipping either to the northwest, or to the southeast. The depth of the event indicates it ruptured a fault within the crust of the Sunda plate, rather than on the deeper subduction zone plate boundary interface. At the latitude of this earthquake, the Philippine Sea plate moves towards the west-northwest with respect to the Sunda plate at a rate of approximately 10 cm/yr, subducting beneath the Philippine Islands several hundred kilometers to the east of the October 15 earthquake at the Philippine Trench.
The Philippine Islands straddle a region of complex tectonics at the intersection of three major tectonic plates (the Philippine Sea, Sunda and Eurasia plates). As such, the islands are familiar with large and damaging earthquakes, and the region within 500 km of the October 15 earthquake has hosted 19 events of M6 or greater, a dozen of which have been shallow (0-70 km).
Update 23.10.2013 13:20 UTC:
Bad news once again with now 209 presumed dead. The other numbers remain the same.
The infrastructure cost has risen to 1.426 billion PHP counted (approx. 35 million USD).
Update 23.10.2013 04:35 UTC:
Unfortunately again we have had a rising death toll without reducing the missing. 195 dead and 12 missing is the current count.
– 651 have been injured
– 53,000 homes have been damaged – 14,000 of these have been destroyed.
– The public infrastructure loss including all hospitals, buildings, roads, flood control, schools is 1.097 billion PHP (25.47 million USD)
– 344,437 people are displaced (approximately the same amount of people as after the Tohoku earthquake.
Update 22.10.2013 07:35 UTC:
– All towns are now fully accessible by road given the hard work of DPWH in the last week. This is a huge accomplishment and will make it easier for relief to flow.
– The estimates of homeless range from 70,000 to 150,000 long term, with 377,000 currently displaced.
– The affected number has dropped below 3 million with a few barangays removing their “affected status”.
Update 22.10.2013 03:05 UTC:
The fault has been found! A previously unknown fault caused the Bohol earthquake. It caused at least 3m movement across a road in Inabanga. Click above to view the news article (GMA).
– The total number of destroyed buildings is at 14,253 (extra buildings in Loon and Maribojoc counted). It is still expected to rise further.
– The total number of damaged buildings is at 39,186.
for more information and to see others affected, photos, current conditions, etc., go to: http://earthquake-report.com/2013/10/15/very-strong-earthquake-mindanao-philippines-on-october-15-2013/
So what is with all the dying bees? Scientists have been trying to discover this for years. Meanwhile, bees keep dropping like… well, you know.
Is it mites? Pesticides? Cell phone towers? What is really at the root? Turns out the real issue really scary, because it is more complex and pervasive than thought.
Scientists had struggled to find the trigger for so-called Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) that has wiped out an estimated 10 million beehives, worth $2 billion, over the past six years. Suspects have included pesticides, disease-bearing parasites and poor nutrition. But in a first-of-its-kind study published today in the journal PLOS ONE, scientists at the University of Maryland and the US Department of Agriculture have identified a witch’s brew of pesticides and fungicides contaminating pollen that bees collect to feed their hives. The findings break new ground on why large numbers of bees are dying though they do not identify the specific cause of CCD, where an entire beehive dies at once.
The researchers behind that study in PLOS ONE — Jeffery S. Pettis, Elinor M. Lichtenberg, Michael Andree, Jennie Stitzinger, Robyn Rose, Dennis vanEngelsdorp — collected pollen from hives on the east coast, including cranberry and watermelon crops, and fed it to healthy bees. Those bees had a serious decline in their ability to resist a parasite that causes Colony Collapse Disorder. The pollen they were fed had an average of nine different pesticides and fungicides, though one sample of pollen contained a deadly brew of 21 different chemicals. Further, the researchers discovered that bees that ate pollen with fungicides were three times more likely to be infected by the parasite.
The discovery means that fungicides, thought harmless to bees, is actually a significant part of Colony Collapse Disorder. And that likely means farmers need a whole new set of regulations about how to use fungicides. While neonicotinoids have been linked to mass bee deaths — the same type of chemical at the heart of the massive bumble bee die off in Oregon — this study opens up an entirely new finding that it is more than one group of pesticides, but a combination of many chemicals, which makes the problem far more complex.
And it is not just the types of chemicals used that need to be considered, but also spraying practices. The bees sampled by the authors foraged not from crops, but almost exclusively from weeds and wildflowers, which means bees are more widely exposed to pesticides than thought.
The authors write, “[M]ore attention must be paid to how honey bees are exposed to pesticides outside of the field in which they are placed. We detected 35 different pesticides in the sampled pollen, and found high fungicide loads. The insecticides esfenvalerate and phosmet were at a concentration higher than their median lethal dose in at least one pollen sample. While fungicides are typically seen as fairly safe for honey bees, we found an increased probability of Nosema infection in bees that consumed pollen with a higher fungicide load. Our results highlight a need for research on sub-lethal effects of fungicides and other chemicals that bees placed in an agricultural setting are exposed to.”
While the overarching issue is simple — chemicals used on crops kill bees — the details of the problem are increasingly more complex, including what can be sprayed, where, how, and when to minimize the negative effects on bees and other pollinators while still assisting in crop production. Right now, scientists are still working on discovering the degree to which bees are affected and by what. It will still likely be a long time before solutions are uncovered and put into place. When economics come into play, an outright halt in spraying anything at all anywhere is simply impossible.
Quartz notes, “Bee populations are so low in the US that it now takes 60% of the country’s surviving colonies just to pollinate one California crop, almonds. And that’s not just a west coast problem—California supplies 80% of the world’s almonds, a market worth $4 billion.”
Very Strong slightly damaging earthquake at intermediate depth near Crete, Greece
Last update: October 12, 2013 at 5:34 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Update 15:19 UTC : More reports are coming in from landslides and fallen tiles of roofs, everything we consider slight damage. Due to the fact that insurance companies will have to intervene to pay back some damage for those insured against earthquakes, we are calling this earthquake a CatDat Orange (CATDAT James Daniell)
Some of the experience reports of our readers :
Chania : was in supermarket and all the produce jumped off the shelves onto the floor. They had to close the shop (large Marinopoulos at Mournies)Chania – I was in the smallest room of the apartment, which was a stroke of luck, as it happens. When it did happen I very quickly recognised it as an earthquake, but as it escalated I soon realised this to be by far the strongest I’d ever experienced. Seemed to go on for close to a minute; thankfully the apartment withstood the swaying with far more calm than me, given the empirical evidence from the smallest room in the apartment! Chania : we could see earth moving and cars shaking. Cars alarms went off. Many were scared. We were also scared, but happy to be on a beach, and not in a building.
Update 15:19 UTC : According to «Flashnews.gr» (with news from Crete) vibration was long and there has been slight damage mainly glass doors smashed in the Old Town of Chania, while testimonials speak for marble that fell from balconies in the center. Kritika through said a citizen was slightly injured in his attempt to jump from the window.
Update 15:06 UTC : Some early reports are mentioning minor damage in houses due to fallen objects, nothing more at the moment.
The Greece Institute of Geodynamics is somewhat different than the other sources. GIG reports a Magnitude of 6.2 but at a depth of 60 km (less dangerous than the other values).
Update 14:26 UTC : The island of Crete had once again a narrow escape from a damaging earthquake. 30 km more to the east and the damage might have been very huge, even at the current depth as the sea is weakening the impact considerably.
Update 14:10 UTC : Below the seismogram as recorded at Gavdos (courtesy Geofon). The oscillations after the mainshock are small aftershocks
Update 14:03 UTC : The earthquake was felt completely different in various parts of Crete. As could be expected stronger to the west of the island than in the middle or at the eastern side.
Update 13:53 UTC : The theoretical damage engine from QAlarm has reports a max. of 20 injured and no fatalities based on more dangerous data than expected by EMSC (M6.6 at a depth of 40 km)
Update 13:47 UTC : The earthquake has also been felt well on the Northern African coast (IE Alexandria in Egypt)
Update 13:45 UTC : EMSC has changed his earthquake data into a Magnitude of 6.4 at a depth of 47 km, normally a lot more dangerous than the initial values, but based on the received intensities we can confirm our earlier expectations.
Update 13:41 UTC : We expect a lot of moderate to weak aftershocks for the coming hours and days.
Update 13:38 UTC : The shaking intensity values we are currently receiving from our readers are showing a moderate to strong shaking, which is normally just below the damage level. In other words based on all available data we have at this moment only slight damage is still a possibility.
Update 13:37 UTC : The depth of 60 km (preliminary data) is also the reason that the earthquake will have been felt in a very wicde area of hundreds of km.
Update 13:35 UTC : We do not expect any serious tsunami treat because of the depth of the earthquake (Focal Mechanism is not known yet at this moment).
Due to the intermediate depth of the earthquake, we expect maximum slight damage on the eastern part of Crete.
276 km S of Athens, Greece / pop: 729,137 / local time: 16:11:53.0 2013-10-12
171 km W of Irákleion, Greece / pop: 137,154 / local time: 16:11:53.0 2013-10-12
67 km W of Chaniá, Greece / pop: 54,565 / local time: 16:11:53.0 2013-10-12
30 km W of Plátanos, Greece / pop: 1,077 / local time: 16:11:53.0 2013-10-12
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.4
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-10-12 16:11:54
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has made landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 16 UTC (noon EDT) Saturday, October 12, 2013. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall. A 938 mb pressure is what one expects to find in a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, using the “Dvorak technique” of satellite wind and pressure estimation. Satellite images show that Phailin’s intense thunderstorms have warmed and shrunk in areal coverage, and radar out of Visakhapanam, India also shows a weakening of the storm’s echoes as it pushes inland. Phailin is bringing torrential rains of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave satellite instruments.
Figure 1. Radar image of Phailin at landfall. Image credit: IMD.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Damage from Phailin
Phailin is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That storm hit with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, and brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast. Phailin should be able to drive a similar-sized storm surge to the coast, since it is larger in areal extent than the 1999 cyclone (although somewhat weaker, with winds perhaps 20 – 30 mph lower.) Phailin’s storm surge and Category 3 to 4 winds will cause near-catastrophic damage to a 50-mile wide swath of the coast where the eyewall comes ashore, and to the right. Hurricane Katrina was weaker at landfall than Phailin, but Katrina had hurricane-force winds that covered a much larger area, making Katrina’s storm surge much more devastating than Phailin’s will be. I think the main danger from Phailin will be from its winds. I am particularly concerned about Phailin’s wind damage potential in the city of Brahmapur (population 350,000), the 58th largest city in India. Brahmapur lies about ten miles inland, and will likely experience sustained hurricane-force winds for several hours. Phailin’s flooding potential is another huge concern, as rainfall amounts of 6 – 12 inches will fall along a swath over 100 miles inland, triggering life-threatening flash flooding.
How strong was Phailin?
Questions have been raised about the India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessments of Phailin’s strength, which were considerably lower than that of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds, so we don’t know which center is correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different results for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans–i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will be weaker in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) It may be that this is the case in the Indian Ocean as well. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 10-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 6%, due to the longer averaging period. This issue could be cleared up if India had its own hurricane hunter aircraft; there have been some high-level discussions about India getting a C-130 aircraft like the U.S. Air Force uses to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds.
Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nari, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Nari was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Nari hits the Philippines
Thirteen people were killed and 2.1 million people lost power on the main Philippine island of Luzon afterTyphoon Nari hit on Friday night near midnight local time. Nari was a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds a few hours before landfall. The core of the storm passed about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, sparing the capital major flooding, but the storm dumped torrential rains in excess of ten inches to the northeast of Manilla. Passage over Luzon weakened Nari to a Category 1 storm, but it is already beginning to re-organize over the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam. Nari is under moderate wind shear of 15 – 20 knots, which should keep intensification relatively slow, and increasing interaction with land will act to slow intensification on Sunday and Monday. Nari could be near Category 3 strength with 115 mph winds by Monday, and landfall in Vietnam is expected around 21 UTC on Monday.
Typhoon Wipha a threat to Japan
Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is intensifying as it heads northwest towards Japan, and the storm is expected to reach major Category 3 strength by Monday. By Tuesday, Wipha will recurve to the northeast and begin weakening, passing very close to Tokyo, Japan, sometime between 00 – 12 UTC on Wednesday. High winds and heavy rains from Wipha may be a concern for the Fukushima nuclear site, where workers continue to struggle with high radiation levels in the wake of the 2011 tsunami that damaged the reactors.
98L in the Eastern Atlantic weakening
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west to west-northwest at 10 – 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has lost most of its organization and heavy thunderstorms since this morning. The disturbance is under a high 20 – 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next three days. The UKMET model shows some weak development of 98L by early next week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 2 pm EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30%, and 5-day odds of 30%. 98L’s projected west-northwest track is expected take it close to the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday, according to the 00Z Saturday run of the European model.
Thanks go to wunderground member thunderfrance for posting the link to the weather station at Gopalpur, India.
Last update: October 11, 2013 at 2:19 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Pour votre information : Une plume pour Le Télégramme qui font un très bon rapport de ce tremblement de terre. Congratulations.
Update 14:11 UTC (16:11 en France) : Lorsque la presse locale écrit maintenant “aucun dommage n’a été encore signalé”, cela doit être considéré comme un rapport provisoire et non comme un rapport final. Notre expérience montre que dans les pays développés, nous avons besoin d’au moins 6 à 10 heures avant que nous ayons une idée définitive de la situation.
When the local press writes now “no damage has been reported yet”, this has to be seen as a temporary report and not as a final report. Our experience shows that in developed countries, we need at least 6 to 10 hours before we have a conclusive idea of the situation.
Update : Il faut savoir que des séismes de Magnitude 4.0 ou plus sont vraiment rare en France. Tous ceux et celles qui l’ont sentis aujourd’hui ont vécu un évenement assez spéciale
Update : Important aussi est de savoir que le calcul exacte de l’epicentre est très difficile et qu’il faut toujours considerer un erreur de plusiers km. Selon les relevés français, l’épicentre se situe à Loperhet, autres sources disent Saint-Thonan.
Update : our opinion : “slight damage possible” because of the type of houses in Bretagne. Maximum radius for damage approx. 10 km. Damage will be mainly crcks in walls, fallen objects inside the house, fallen chimneys and fallen roof tiles.
Notre avis: “légers dégâts possible” en raison du type de maisons en Bretagne. Rayon maximum de dommages env. 10 km. Dommages sera principalement des fissures dans les murs, les objets tombés à l’intérieur de la maison, cheminées tombées etc.
Update : Nos lecteurs nous informent qu’il y avait une replique juste après le premier choque.
Une séisme relativement severe (Magnitude 4) s’est produit a un peu plus de 20 km de Brest. Basée sur notre experience, le Magnitude en relation avec le profondeur de 5 km est just en dessous du niveau de dégats. Esperons cela.
Nous nous excusons pout nôtre Français. On est conscient que c’est pas fameux, mais ons pense qu’il est mieux comme ca que d’écrire en Anglais
Plan de detail avec epicentre
181 km SW of Saint Peter Port, Guernsey / pop: 16,488 / local time: 13:52:40.0 2013-10-11
33 km N of Quimper, France / pop: 63,849 / local time: 14:52:40.0 2013-10-11
4 km SW of Le Faou, France / pop: 1,703 / local time: 14:52:40.0 2013-10-11
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 4
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-10-11 14:52:40
Hurricane Watches are flying along the U.S. Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Karen heads north-northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Karen, the eleventh named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed about 8 am EDT Thursday in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. It’s not often that one sees a new storm start out with 60 mph sustained winds, but that’s what an Air Force hurricane hunter plane found this morning near 7:30 am EDT, when they sampled the northern portion of the storm. A ship located about 50 miles northeast of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula measured sustained winds of 51 mph near the same time. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm with an area of very intense thunderstorms along its northern and eastern flanks. Wind shear has risen since Wednesday, and is now a moderately high 20 knots, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest. These strong winds are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the west side of Karen’s center of circulation, by driving dry air that is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen’s core. As a result, Karen has a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, though, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Between 7 am and 9:30 am EDT the Hurricane Hunters made three passes though the center of Karen, and the central pressure stayed roughly constant at 1004 mb, so Karen is not undergoing much change. Figure 1. Odds of receiving more than 4″ of rain over a five-day period beginning at 2 am EDT Thursday October 3, 2013, as predicted by the experimental GFDL ensemble model.
Forecast for Karen
Wind shear will steadily increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will reach a high 25 knots by Saturday morning as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday evening and Saturday morning. The higher shear at that time should be able to induce weakening, and the 8 am EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 28% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 am EDT Saturday, down from 44% on Friday afternoon. Most of the models predict landfall will occur along the western Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon or evening. The usually reliable European model has Karen making landfall over Eastern Louisiana, though. If Karen does follow this more westerly path, the storm will be weaker, since there is more dry air and higher wind shear to the west. Since almost all of Karen’s heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear, there will be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 – 3″ to the immediate west of where the center makes landfall. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 – 8″ can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (45 – 55%) are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html#UbifOgDIGFGEKfq7.99
Moderate unusual earthquake in the greater Vienna area, Austria
Last update: October 3, 2013 at 9:46 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update October 3 09:43 UTC : Local media are mentioning multiple houses with thin fissures, fallen plaster etc. The hypocenter depth of this earthquake has been set in between 8 to 12 km. At least 4 weak aftershocks (there were also some foreshocks) have been measured (not all of them have been felt by the population). These aftershocks can go on for several days and will only end when a new balance is achieved.
Update 19:45 Uhr : Minor damage (cracks in plaster and walls) was caused in some houses.
Update 18:31 UTC : The local press is reporting that the Fire Department has not yet received any reports of damage. Based on our experience, we think that it is far too early to be conclusive. We expect more details tomorrow morning but as said before we do not expect major damage.
Update 17:50 UTC : Both EMSC and Geofon are now reporting a depth of 5 km which is bad news for the direct epicenter are. We expects slight damage in a radius of max. 20 km.
Update 17:36 UTC : Be prepared for aftershocks. Aftershocks are normally weaker than the first shock, but in rare cases aftershocks can even be stronger. Never run outside your house when the shaking is still going on ! Please follow this internationally accepted advice for future aftershocks : Be Earthquake Prepared
Update 17:33 UTC : We expect slight damage due to this earthquake if the preliminary shallow depth will be confirmed. Brick houses can be very vulnerable for eventual cracks in walls, fallen chimneys, Plaster falling from the ceiling and some occasionally broken windows etc.
When you are one of the people who felt the shaking of this earthquake, please fill in the form behind “I Felt A (not Listed) Earthquake” on top of the list. Thank you.
Update 17:26 UTC : Geofon now reports a Magnitude of 4.3 at a shallow depth and to the South of Vienna
Update17:24 UTC : Preliminary Magnitude will be about M4 – Epicenter near the Hungarian border
25 km S of Vienna, Austria / pop: 1,691,468 / local time: 19:17:37.0 2013-10-02
14 km SE of Neu-Guntramsdorf, Austria / pop: 9,071 / local time: 19:17:37.0 2013-10-02
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 4.1
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-10-02 19:17:37
Farmed Out: Overpumping Threatens to Deplete U.S. High Plains Groundwater
Story at-a-glance
In the next 50 years, research suggests 70 percent of the High Plains Aquifer System in the Midwestern US may be depleted
Water-intensive cattle and corn crops account for the majority of water usage in the US, and the High Plains Aquifer supplies 30 percent of US irrigated groundwater
Once the aquifer is depleted, it would take an average of 500 to 1,300 years to completely refill; farmers would need to reduce their pumping of the aquifer by 80 percent for it to be replenished naturally by rainfall
The adoption of more sustainable agricultural practices, including a return to grass-fed cattle, will be necessary to protect water supplies for future generations
By Dr. Mercola
In the US Midwest, corn and cattle are kings, but both require large amounts of water to be sustained. Not only is corn a water-intensive crop, but cattle raised on concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) are fed mostly corn.
This double blow to water supplies in the region has led to the rapid depletion of one of the most important water sources to Midwestern farmers – the High Plains Aquifer System.
It is this extensive underground aquifer that allowed farmers to grow crops in what was previously known as ‘the Great American Desert.’ It was also in this area where the rush to clear out the area’s natural grasslands and replace them with plowed soil lead to one of the greatest man-made ecological disasters of all time.
Following a decades-long drought in the 1930s, farmers began to use groundwater pumping and sprinkler irrigation to grow corn and wheat in what is now more commonly known as the US ‘dust bowl,’ using the vast aquifer freely.
Now, however, the draw has proved to be too intense and this once seemingly inexhaustible source of groundwater is quickly being depleted.
70% of the Water Could Be Gone in the Next 50 Years
Farmers in the region who hope to pass their farms on to the next generation had better do some quick thinking, because if the water drain continues new research suggests that nearly 70 percent of the aquifer could be depleted in the next 50 years.1
According to the study, by 1960 farmers had already used up 3 percent of the aquifer’s water and by 2010 that rose to 30 percent. By 2060, it’s estimated that another 39 percent of the water will be gone… and this is even taking anticipated irrigation technology improvements into account.
While it’s thought that farmers might be able to pump less water in the coming decades due to newer irrigation technology, corn crops and cattle CAFOs are expected to increase, which will likely negate any of the potential water savings.
The researchers stated:
“Significant declines in the region’s pumping rates will occur over the next 15-20 y given current trends, yet irrigated agricultural production might increase through 2040 because of projected increases in water use efficiencies in corn production.
Water use reductions of 20% today would cut agricultural production to the levels of 15-20 y ago, the time of peak agricultural production would extend to the 2070s, and production beyond 2070 would significantly exceed that projected without reduced pumping.”
It Could Take 1,300 Years to Refill This Aquifer
Tapping this groundwater source for agricultural production is clearly not a sustainable option at today’s usage rates. Cattle and corn crops account for the majority of water usage in the US, and the High Plains Aquifer supplies 30 percent of US irrigated groundwater.
It is, in fact, because of this ‘guaranteed’ water supply that Kansas is able to claim some of the highest market value for agriculture in the US. Yet, once the aquifer is depleted, it will be gone for the foreseeable future, as it’s estimated it would take an average of 500 to 1,300 years to completely refill.
The script hasn’t been set in stone yet, however, as if farmers reduce their pumping of the aquifer by about 80 percent, it would be able to be replenished naturally via rainfall.
But in the Dust Bowl, growing two of the most water-intensive crops that exist, this is unlikely to happen unless major agricultural reform takes place. Cornell University professor of crop and soil sciences Harold Mathijs van Es told Scientific American:2
“We need to think about what’s being grown here and how we’re growing it. This is the Dust Bowl we’re talking about.”
Are We Farming Our Way to Environmental Disaster?
Many farmers in the Plains states rely on irrigation from the High Plains Aquifer to water their crops in times of drought, but what will happen if this water reserve runs out? We could once again be brewing a dust storm of epic proportions, and this is only one of the potential scenarios…
There are many other warning signs that the poor farming practices being used today could backfire in the form of major environmental disasters as well.
Soil is actually depleting 13% faster than it can be replaced, and we’ve lost 75% of the world’s crop varieties in just the last 100 years. Over a billion people in the world have no access to safe drinking water, while 80% of the world’s fresh water supply is used for agriculture. This situation is simply not sustainable for much longer. Yet, as the study’s researchers said, very poignantly and succinctly:
“Society has an opportunity now to make changes with tremendous implications for future sustainability and livability.”
A Return to Grass-Fed Cattle May Dramatically Lessen Water Demands
to read more, go to: http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2013/09/17/high-plains-aquifer-groundwater.aspx?e_cid=20130917Z1_DNL_art_2&utm_source=dnl&utm_medium=email&utm_content=art2&utm_campaign=20130917Z1
Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world. It’s grown in over 70 countries and amounts to over 16 billion pounds of beans every year. That’s a lot of beans… and when they’re only used once and thrown away, it also amounts to a huge amount of waste.
If you drink a lot of coffee or have worked in a coffee house, you have probably looked at the massive amount of coffee grounds being thrown away after one use and wondered, “isn’t there something these can be used for?” You’re not alone, researchers all over the world have wondered the same thing and explored the issue. The good news — spent coffee grounds DO have value! What potential uses for used coffee grounds have been found?
1. Remove Lead from Water
Researchers at Japan’s Kinki University investigated the possibility of using coffee grounds to remove lead from drinking water and found that, indeed, not only was it possible, but that it actually worked quite well. [1] The prospect of using coffee grounds, an overly abundant waste item, for a purpose as beneficial as removing lead from drinking water is an exciting idea!
2. Biodiesel Production
You may have heard of diesel vehicles being converted to run on discarded grease from fast food restaurants, wouldn’t it be great if discarded coffee grounds could also be used as a source of energy? Perhaps they can.
Researchers at the University of Nevada in Reno found that oil extracted from spent coffee grounds could be converted to biodiesel. Spent coffee grounds can contain about 15% oil, depending on the variety. This might not sound like much, but experts estimated that the biodiesel production levels could reach upwards of 340 million gallons when accounting for all the used coffee grounds in the world. As a side bonus, they also determined that even after the oil is extracted, the coffee grounds are still great for garden fertilizer, feedstock for ethanol, and fuel pellets.[2]
Additionally, the Research Institute of Industrial Science and Technology in South Korea conducted similar experiments and found that spent coffee grounds were a strong candidate for the production of bioethanol and biodiesel. [3]
3. Enhances Composting
A 2008 study out of Malaysia found that when coffee grounds were added to vermicompost — composting that uses worms — it helped produce more earthworms than kitchen waste alone. This is, at least partially, because the coffee grounds increased the nutrient content in the vermicompost. [4] This is an easy one for anyone to partake in. If you’re not composting, start composting. And if you are already, make sure to throw your coffee grounds in the mix!
4. Agricultural Nutrient
It’s fairly common for home gardeners to add used coffee grounds to garden soil. I had a friend who would routinely dump the remnants of his French press right into his plant pots. Old wives tale? Not quite, research suggests it’s an idea with merit.
In early 2012, Portuguese researchers examined the impact of adding spent coffee grounds to growing lettuce. The results were astounding — the carotenoid and chlorophyll content in the lettuce increased, as did the amount of lutein and beta-carotene. There is a ceiling, however, as they also determined that a 10% limit on the ratio of coffee grounds to soil was where the benefits stopped. [5]
In Japan, the National Institute of Vegetable and Tea Science has published information recommending that spent coffee grounds be added to rice farming so as to increase rice yields and the nutrient content (as well as decrease landfill waste). [6]
5. Source of Antioxidants and Other Nutrients
So really, why are spent coffee grounds so beneficial? Because they’re not actually “spent” and they still contain valuable nutrients. Just earlier this year, it was confirmed that spent coffee grounds still contained antioxidants that could be used for nutritional supplements, food or cosmetics. [7]
In fact, research conducted at Spain’s University of Navarra found that spent coffee grounds actually contained up to seven times the amount of beneficial antioxidants than the respective brewed coffee! [8]
The Logistics of Using Spent Coffee Grounds
While most anyone can take advantage of using spent coffee grounds at home to fertilize their plants or add to their compost pile, some of the other uses, like biodiesel creation, are less home-user friendly, and require significant processes to be in place. It begs the question — do large scale coffee outfits like Starbucks have a plan in place to repurpose the spent grounds? Are there any industries springing up to collect and process used grounds? I couldn’t find an answer to that in my research. If you know, please weigh in and leave a comment below. Additionally, if you have a used for spent coffee grounds, please share that with us too!
