El Hierro Volcano activity report – New seismic crisis – more deformation and shallower earthquakes
Last update: December 24, 2013 at 4:56 pm by By Armand Vervaeck
2013-12-24 16:36 UTC – It took a while before the last interesting (low frequency) earthquakes were listed, but now we see another of these earthquakes at 9 km depth (not dangerous but certainly one that IGN will zoom into).
To give our readers an idea of the epicenter of both 9 km depth earthquakes, we generated a map of the epicenter of both quakes. We are unsure about the depth (no good seafloor maps on the internet. Google earth mentions 500 to 600 meter.
The epicenter of the 9 km 06:17 earthquake
The epicenter of the 9 km 14:58 earthquake
2013-12-24 15:20 UTC
A typical phenomenon happened only a couple of minutes ago. A seemingly calm and weaker seismic period ends with another strong(er) earthquake (no details yet but we expect in the M3 proximity). How can this be explained : quiet simple – pressure buildup with almost no release of energy which (within an active period) ens with a stronger than usual earthquake. Also this is a low frequency earthquake! (lucky to have explained it in the 14:13 update )
2013-12-24 14:13 UTC
We think it should be a good idea to explain to our readers the difference in between the different types of earthquakes, as soo many earthquakes are currently occurring below the island. The (scientific) text was initially written by Tilling, et.al., 1987, Eruptions of Hawaiian Volcanoes, but is also to be used everywhere else in the world.
During inflation (lifting of the island as discussed in previous updates) the rocks become stressed, and this stress is partly relieved by increasing numbers of earthquakes, too small to be felt, but easily recorded by seismometers at Kilauea summit. These earthquakes (called short-period or tectonic) are recorded as high-frequency features on a seismograph. During deflation the stress is completely relieved. The short-period earthquakes stop, but their place is taken by low-frequency earthquakes (called long-period or volcanic), which reflect adjustments related to the movement of magma from the reservoir to finds its way to the surface. The long-period earthquakes are related to harmonic tremor, the continuous seismic record of underground magma movement. (small adjustments to the text to reflect the El Hierro event).
A low frequency earthquake which occurred this morning at 06:17
2013-12-24 12:49 UTC
– New stronger earthquakes and a thicker tremor line (magma intrusion)
2013-12-24 12:29 UTC
– The strength and frequency of the earthquakes has weakened the last couple of hours. Microseismicity is still present abundantly.
Purple square : the most recent – red squares: less than 12 hours
2013-12-24 09:50 UTC
– Relatively few earthquakes today (less than yesterday)
– some information for both ends of readers. Those on the island who merely want to live their safe live and want to enjoy tourist spending : less earthquakes. Those (almost all from other places in the world : it is not over yet.
– The seismograph image below shows a strong earthquake at 06:17. If you are looking in the list for this earthquake, you will be surprised that it is only a 2.4 Magnitude. Why such a big line on the graph then? Because of the depth of 9 km. The seismograph is the confirmation that the depth must have been true (in seismology error margins are normal – in preliminary readings).
– Some activity is taking place offshore at the east of the island.
– Magma wint gradually into a more shallow layer. It went up approx. 2 km (from 15 to 17 km towards 12 to 15 km (last 5 earthquakes).
– The seismograph image shows at the end some more tremor indicating a further intrusion of magma. These quakes are not yet showed on the list.
– De El Pinar GPS deformation data is showing a Northern deformation of nearly 2 cm. More lifting of a bout 1 cm.
– The IGN deformation data are showing a further lifting of 2 cm! on the HI09 (La Restinga) GPS and a 1 cm lifting of the El Pinar HI08 GPS. this means lesser lifting in El Pinar and more lifting in La Restinga than the prior 24 hours. These readings are confirming what we see on the seismicity map.
– In terms of safety on the short term, we are convinced that a PEVOLCA will meet soon and will publish a report afterwards. (PEVOLCA safety board of the island consisting of IGN, INVOLCAN and the local and national authorities)
Mayor Billy Kenoi signed Bill 113 on December 5, 2013. Below is the message he sent to the Hawai’i County Council:
Aloha, Chair Yoshimoto and Members:
On Nov. 19, 2013 the Hawai’i County Council adopted Bill 113 Draft 3 adding a new article relating to Genetically Engineered Crops and Plants, and on Nov. 21, 2013 delivered the bill to me for my consideration. After careful deliberation and discussions with members of my administration and the public, I am signing Bill 113.
Our community has a deep connection and respect for our land, and we all understand we must protect our island and preserve our precious natural resources. We are determined to do what is right for the land because this place is unlike any other in the world. With this new ordinance we are conveying that instead of global agribusiness corporations, we want to encourage and support community-based farming and ranching.
The debate over this bill has at times been divisive and hurtful, and some of our hard-working farmers who produce food for our community have been treated disrespectfully. We are determined to protect every farmer and rancher. Agriculture on Hawai’i Island will continue to grow with county assistance, investment and support. That commitment includes initiatives such as the public-private partnership to improve and expand the Pa’auilo Slaughterhouse to support our grass-fed beef industry, and the launch of the Kapulena Agricultural Park, the largest agricultural park in the state on 1,739 acres of county-owned land. It also includes support for innovative training programs to grow the farmers of the future, and to train veterans to engage in agriculture on Hawaiian Home Lands, and the introduction and advancement of Korean Natural Farming as a sustainable method of producing healthier crops and livestock. It includes completion of the first-in-the-state Food Self-Sufficiency Baseline Study of Hawai’i Island to measure the island’s progress toward food self-sufficiency.
We are determined to reunite our farming community to create a stronger and more vibrant agricultural sector. It is time to end the angry rhetoric and reach out to our neighbors. Our farmers are essential to creating a wholesome and sustainable food supply on this island, and they deserve to be treated with respect and aloha. We must turn now to a meaningful, factual dialogue with one another.
With my approval of this bill, our administration will launch a year of research and data collection to investigate factual claims and to seek out new directions that farming in our community should take. This work will include an expanded database detailing the locations of both organic and conventional farms, the crops that are grown, more accurate estimates of the revenue earned from these enterprises, and the challenges our farmers face in meeting food safety and organic certification requirements. We will work with our farmers and our ranchers to carefully monitor the impacts of this bill over the next year to separate speculation and guesswork from the facts.
Today our communities expect that government will be as cautious as possible in protecting our food and water supplies. We all want to minimize impacts to the environment while also producing abundant, affordable food for local consumption. This ordinance expresses the desires and demands of our community for a safe, sustainable agricultural sector that can help feed our people while keeping our precious island productive and healthy.
Meanwhile in Italy, Etna had yet another paroxysm, this time less than a week since its last one. This one produced a significant ash plume with lava fountaining, but little-to-no lava flow activity. One of the more impressive videos I’ve seen for the eruption was one taken by hikers on Etna who had basaltic scoria rain down on them. VolcanoDiscovery also posted a time-lapse of yesterday’s eruption.
Strong dangerous earthquake in the Iran / Iraq border area
Last update: November 22, 2013 at 7:24 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Update 19:21 UTC : We do not expect any conclusive assessments before tomorrow morning local time (late night now). Assessment in the dark and probably with difficulty to communicate gives even during daylight many hours of delay.
Update 19:21 UTC : Earthquake-Report.com considers and area of max. 10 km around the epicenter at risk for serious to moderate damage.
Update 19:00 UTC : The image below gives a MMI VII shaking in the epicenter area. MMI VII is considered as dangerous for damage. The reason why these data are giving a higher shaking intensity is the depth of 14 km. Shallower earthquakes (breaking point closer to the surface) are always more dangerous than deeper earthquakes.
Update 18:58 UTC : The theoretical damage engine of Max Wyss expects NO fatalities but 0 to 20 injured people. We agree with him but the number may higher if the depth of 46 km (which we do not trust) is more shallow (like the one from this morning).
Update 18:53 UTC : “The citizens in Sulaimaniyah, Kirkuk, Baghdad and Badra district of Wasit province in addition to Diyala noticed the Earthquake
Update 18:48 UTC : The area had a number of earthquakes earlier today, but the current one will be the most dangerous one. We expect a lot of minor damage in the epicenter area.
149 km NE of Baghdad, Iraq / pop: 5,672,513 / local time: 21:31:02.0 2013-11-22
103 km NW of Īlām, Iran / pop: 140,940 / local time: 22:01:02.0 2013-11-22
34 km SW of Sarpol-e Z̄ahāb, Iran / pop: 51,611 / local time: 22:01:02.0 2013-11-22
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.7
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-11-22 22:00:59
Strong and very dangerous double earthquake in Changlin, Jilin / Nei-Mongol, China – Lots of damage
Last update: November 23, 2013 at 11:17 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update 11:19 UTC : Jilin Military immediately launched an emergency mechanism and organized more than 300 active duty, reserve militia and police officers into the emergency disaster relief. Fog, snow and temperatures down to -10 C are adding the to damage.
Update 09:44 UTC : 310 rooms collapsed, 16000 were severely damaged and 20000 with minor damage. No injuries or fatalities has been reported so far which is great as the strongest one happened during the nightly hours.
Update 09:24 UTC : The earthquake sequences are that damaging that a national disaster emergency response grade Ⅳ has been called !
Update 01:31 UTC : The first reports from Songyuan City are mentioning some severely damaged houses in the epicenter area. The assessments from specialized teams (Chinese authorities are very experienced and quick rescue operations) are expected the coming hours.
Update 01:27 UTC : In China this earthquake is described as Songyuan City, Changchun, Jilin earthquake
Update 01:23 UTC : On the pictures below which are from the earthquake area (if the sources are right), one can see a) an aerial view of the landscape showing a lot of agriculture fields and suggesting a flat soft surface which is very vulnerable for earthquake waves. On other images (not shown) we have noticed oil pumps suggesting oil is being extracted in the area. We do NOT suggest however that the oil extraction has something to do with this earthquake.
Update 01:16 UTC : The whole area is unstable since also a double earthquake did strike on October 31. the magnitudes at that time were reported as 5.5 and 5.0, versus 5.3, 5.8 and 5.0 today.
Update 01:11 UTC : Adding to the misery will be snow coming soon
Update 01:09 UTC : Xinhua China early reports mention : The epicenter was located at the juncture of Qian Gorlos Mongol Autonomous County and Qian’an county, where two quakes of similar magnitude occurred on Oct. 31 and left 12 people injured. “The earthquake lasted for about 3 seconds. I felt it was more severe than the last time, and my house was partly damaged,” Li Wei, a resident in Yingtu Village of Qian Gorlos Mongol Autonomous County, told Xinhua over the phone.
Li said his fellow villagers ran out of their homes for fear that their houses would collapse.
Update 00:56 UTC : The Chinese seismological Agency reports a Magnitude of 5.8 at a depth of only 9 km = very dangerous and collapsed rooms /houses can be expected
Very dangerous double earthquake in the greater Changlin area, China. These twin earthquakes happened after a similar 5+ earthquake yesterday (local time – today UTC). Based on the USGS data, an intensity of MMI VII is expected. This MMI will lead to further damage at houses and infrastructure.
The earthquake was very shallow based on the same USGS data.
34km (21mi) N of Changling, China
72km (45mi) ESE of Kaitong, China
90km (56mi) SW of Qianguo, China
93km (58mi) SW of Fuyu, China
632km (393mi) NNW of Pyongyang, North Korea
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.2
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-11-23 06:04:26
Deforestation has risen exponentially after years of decline, with environmentalists attributing this change to the easing of laws in Brazil.
By Ananth Baliga | Nov. 15, 2013 at 12:11 PM
Deforestation in the Amazon has reached a new high after years of declining numbers, owing to the easing of environmental laws in Brazil.(CC/Alex Rio Brazil)
Nov. 15 (UPI) — Brazil has acknowledged a 28 percent rise in deforestation of the ecologically sensitive Amazon forest, between August 2012 and July 2013.The rise has been blamed on changes made to Brazil’s forest protection law. The country uses to sattelite imagery to track the decline of the country’s forest cover and is particularly shocking considering it recorded its lowest deforestation levels last year.
Initial statistics point to 2,255 sq miles of forest lost as compared to 1,765 sq miles lost in the previous 12 months. This rise ends a streak of declining deforestation which began in 2009 but does not come close to the loss in 2004 — nearly 10,500 sq. miles of forest were lost.
Environmentalists say the controversial reform of the forest protection law in 2012 is to blame for the trend in Brazil. The changes reduced protected areas in farms and declared an amnesty for areas destroyed before 2008.
Environment Minister Izabella Teixeir called the destruction of the Amazon “unacceptable” and a “crime,” but denied allegations that President Dilma Rousseff‘s administration was to blame.
“This swing is not related to any federal government fund cuts for law enforcement,” she said.
A majority of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions has been linked to the rapid deforestation of the Amazon. These figures undermine the pledge made by Brazil in 2009 to reduce deforestation in the Amazon by 80% by the year 2020.
Very strong dangerous (shallow) earthquake in Hualien County, Taiwan
Last update: October 31, 2013 at 3:30 pm by By Armand Vervaeck and James Daniell
Update 15:19 UTC : – A man in Hualien County was crushed by furniture and has been taken to a hospital
– 8 people were trapped in an elevator when the earthquake struck
– The overall damage / injuries are looking fairly good at this time although it is still too soon to be conclusive as we need daylight to have a good overview.
Fallen products from shelves in a supermarket in New Taipei City – image courtesy cqnews.net
Update 14:56 UTC : Taiwan Railways reports that 46 trains affecting 9500 people have been delayed due to the earthquake
Update 14:51 UTC : The nuclear power plants in Taiwan are not affected.
Update 14:49 UTC : The Max Wyss theoretical damage engine gave the following values :
ESTIMATE OF HUMAN LOSSES
Injured Exp. min/max: 50/600
Fatalities Exp. min/max: 0/100
These results are mainly based on historical events – ER expects lower values than the minimum values of this calculation
Update 14:41 UTC : The earthquake occurred during darkness (8:02 PM). It is almost midnight right now and we do not expect a lot of news before the early morning hours, but we will of course continue to search for it.
Update 14:38 UTC : A 79 years old woman fell and broke something
Falling tiles are also being reported but nothing else so far.
Update 14:25 UTC : We expect landslides to damage some areas severely.
– USGS has decreased the Magnitude from the original M6.7 to M6.3 – Depth has been changed from 10 km to 12 km.
– Below the CWB list of aftershocks at the time of writing :
Update 11:20 UTC : – CWB Taiwan is reporting a Magnitude of 6.3 at a depth of 20 km, still very dangerous but less dangerous than the USGS values.
The earthquake is very dangerous and below land !
Pacific Tsunami message (NOT for the Taiwan coast) : NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
HOWEVER – EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.
Taiwan Intensity scale
Taiwan uses a scale which is more or less similar than Japan. Shaking values of 6 can be compared with JMA5+ which ER considers as potentially damaging : CWB 6 or Very Strong shaking (Hualien County) : – People have trouble walking due to violent rocking.
– Damage to some buildings; heavy furniture overturns; doors and windows bend.
– Drivers have trouble steering; sand and clay blasts occur. CWB 5 or Strong Shaking (Nantou, Yilan and Central Hualien Counties) : – Most people are considerably frightened.
– Walls crack; heavy furniture may overturn.
– Noticeably felt by drivers; some chimneys and large archways topple over.
61km (38mi) SSW of Hualian, Taiwan
61km (38mi) SSE of Buli, Taiwan
62km (39mi) ESE of Lugu, Taiwan
79km (49mi) SE of Nantou, Taiwan
744km (462mi) ENE of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
162 km S of Taipei, Taiwan / pop: 7,871,900 / local time: 20:02:09.0 2013-10-31
46 km S of Hualian, Taiwan / pop: 350,468 / local time: 20:02:09.0 2013-10-31
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.3
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-10-31 20:02:08
The map below comes from the Nuclear Emergency Tracking Center. It shows that radiation levels at radiation monitoring stations all over the country are elevated. As you will notice, this is particularly true along the west coast of the United States. Every single day, 300 tons of radioactive water from Fukushima enters the Pacific Ocean. That means that the total amount of radioactive material released from Fukushima is constantly increasing, and it is steadily building up in our food chain.
Ultimately, all of this nuclear radiation will outlive all of us by a very wide margin. They are saying that it could take up to 40 years to clean up the Fukushima disaster, and meanwhile countless innocent people will develop cancer and other health problems as a result of exposure to high levels of nuclear radiation. We are talking about a nuclear disaster that is absolutely unprecedented, and it is constantly getting worse. The following are 28 signs that the west coast of North America is being absolutely fried with nuclear radiation from Fukushima…
1. Polar bears, seals and walruses along the Alaska coastline are suffering from fur loss and open sores…
Wildlife experts are studying whether fur loss and open sores detected in nine polar bears in recent weeks is widespread and related to similar incidents among seals and walruses.
The bears were among 33 spotted near Barrow, Alaska, during routine survey work along the Arctic coastline. Tests showed they had “alopecia, or loss of fur, and other skin lesions,” the U.S. Geological Survey said in a statement.
At island rookeries off the Southern California coast, 45 percent of the pups born in June have died, said Sharon Melin, a wildlife biologist for the National Marine Fisheries Service based in Seattle. Normally, less than one-third of the pups would die. It’s gotten so bad in the past two weeks that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared an “unusual mortality event.”
3. Along the Pacific coast of Canada and the Alaska coastline, the population of sockeye salmon is at a historic low. Many are blaming Fukushima.
5. A vast field of radioactive debris from Fukushima that is approximately the size of California has crossed the Pacific Ocean and is starting to collide with the west coast.
6. It is being projected that the radioactivity of coastal waters off the U.S. west coast could double over the next five to six years.
7. Experts have found very high levels of cesium-137 in plankton living in the waters of the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and the west coast.
8. One test in California found that 15 out of 15 bluefin tuna were contaminated with radiation from Fukushima.
9. Back in 2012, the Vancouver Sun reported that cesium-137 was being found in a very high percentage of the fish that Japan was selling to Canada…
• 73 percent of mackerel tested
Some fish samples tested to date have had very high levels of radiation: one sea bass sample collected in July, for example, had 1,000 becquerels per kilogram of cesium.
“Look at what’s going on now: They’re dumping huge amounts of radioactivity into the ocean — no one expected that in 2011,” Daniel Hirsch, a nuclear policy lecturer at the University of California-Santa Cruz, told Global Security Newswire. “We could have large numbers of cancer from ingestion of fish.”
12. BBC News recently reported that radiation levels around Fukushima are “18 times higher” than previously believed.
13. An EU-funded study concluded that Fukushima released up to 210 quadrillion becquerels of cesium-137 into the atmosphere.
14. Atmospheric radiation from Fukushima reached the west coast of the United States within a few days back in 2011.
15. At this point, 300 tons of contaminated water is pouring into the Pacific Ocean from Fukushima every single day.
16. A senior researcher of marine chemistry at the Japan Meteorological Agency’s Meteorological Research Institute says that “30 billion becquerels of radioactive cesium and 30 billion becquerels of radioactive strontium” are being released into the Pacific Ocean from Fukushima every single day.
18. According to a professor at Tokyo University, 3 gigabecquerels of cesium-137 are flowing into the port at Fukushima Daiichi every single day.
19. It has been estimated that up to 100 times as much nuclear radiation has been released into the ocean from Fukushima than was released during the entire Chernobyl disaster.
20. One recent study concluded that a very large plume of cesium-137 from the Fukushima disaster will start flowing into U.S. coastal waters early next year…
Ocean simulations showed that the plume of radioactive cesium-137 released by the Fukushima disaster in 2011 could begin flowing into U.S. coastal waters starting in early 2014 and peak in 2016.
21. It is being projected that significant levels of cesium-137 will reach every corner of the Pacific Ocean by the year 2020.
22. It is being projected that the entire Pacific Ocean will soon “have cesium levels 5 to 10 times higher” than what we witnessed during the era of heavy atomic bomb testing in the Pacific many decades ago.
23. The immense amounts of nuclear radiation getting into the water in the Pacific Ocean has caused environmental activist Joe Martino to issue the following warning…
Your days of eating Pacific Ocean fish are over.
24. The Iodine-131, Cesium-137 and Strontium-90 that are constantly coming from Fukushima are going to affect the health of those living the the northern hemisphere for a very, very long time. Just consider what Harvey Wasserman had to say about this…
Iodine-131, for example, can be ingested into the thyroid, where it emits beta particles (electrons) that damage tissue. A plague of damaged thyroids has already been reported among as many as 40 percent of the children in the Fukushima area. That percentage can only go higher. In developing youngsters, it can stunt both physical and mental growth. Among adults it causes a very wide range of ancillary ailments, including cancer.
Strontium-90’s half-life is around 29 years. It mimics calcium and goes to our bones.
25. According to a recent Planet Infowars report, the California coastline is being transformed into “a dead zone”…
The California coastline is becoming like a dead zone.
If you haven’t been to a California beach lately, you probably don’t know that the rocks are unnaturally CLEAN – there’s hardly any kelp, barnacles, sea urchins, etc. anymore and the tide pools are similarly eerily devoid of crabs, snails and other scurrying signs of life… and especially as compared to 10 – 15 years ago when one was wise to wear tennis shoes on a trip to the beach in order to avoid cutting one’s feet on all the STUFF of life – broken shells, bones, glass, driftwood, etc.
There are also days when I am hard-pressed to find even a half dozen seagulls and/or terns on the county beach.
You can still find a few gulls trolling the picnic areas and some of the restaurants (with outdoor seating areas) for food, of course, but, when I think back to 10 – 15 years ago, the skies and ALL the beaches were literally filled with seagulls and the haunting sound of their cries both day and night…
NOW it’s unnaturally quiet.
26. A study conducted last year came to the conclusion that radiation from the Fukushima nuclear disaster could negatively affect human life along the west coast of North America from Mexico to Alaska “for decades”.
27. According to the Wall Street Journal, it is being projected that the cleanup of Fukushima could take up to 40 years to complete.
28. Yale Professor Charles Perrow is warning that if the cleanup of Fukushima is not handled with 100% precision that humanity could be threatened “for thousands of years“…
Conditions in the unit 4 pool, 100 feet from the ground, are perilous, and if any two of the rods touch it could cause a nuclear reaction that would be uncontrollable. The radiation emitted from all these rods, if they are not continually cool and kept separate, would require the evacuation of surrounding areas including Tokyo. Because of the radiation at the site the 6,375 rods in the common storage pool could not be continuously cooled; they would fission and all of humanity will be threatened, for thousands of years.
Are you starting to understand why so many people are so deeply concerned about what is going on at Fukushima?
September 2013 was the globe’s 4th warmest September since records began in 1880, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The year-to-date period of January – September has been the 6th warmest such period on record. September 2013 global land temperatures were the 6th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 4th warmest on record. September 2013 was the 343nd consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 11th or 3rd warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground’s weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2013 in his September 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2013, the 4th warmest September for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across most of Australia and part of central Asia, as well as part of southwestern Canada. Most of central and northern North America, northern Europe, and much of central and southern Asia were much warmer than average. Cooler and much-cooler-than-average temperatures occurred across much of central and eastern Russia, along with most of eastern Europe and western Greenland. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
The five billion-dollar weather disasters of September 2013
Five billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during September 2013, bringing the world-wide tally of these disasters so far in 2013 to 32, according to the September 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the third highest yearly total for the globe since accurate disaster records began in 2000, according to Senior Scientist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield. The record highest was 40 billion-dollar disasters in 2010. For comparison, during all of 2012, there were 27 billion-dollar weather disasters; the tally in 2011 was 35 (adjusted for inflation.) The U.S. total so far in 2013 is seven.
Disaster 1. The most damaging billion-dollar weather disaster of September was in Mexico, where Hurricane Manuel made two landfalls along Mexico’s Pacific coast. Flooding from Manuel’s torrential rains caused $4.2 billion in damage and left 169 people dead or missing. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this was the second most expensive weather-related disaster in Mexican history, behind the $6 billion in damage (2013 dollars) wrought by Hurricane Wilma in October 2005. In this aerial view, we see the landslide triggered by Hurricane Manuel’s rains that killed 43 people in La Pintada, México, on September 19, 2013. (Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty)
Disaster 2. Super Typhoon Usagi made landfall near Shanwei, China on September 22, 2013 as a Category 2 typhoon with 110 mph winds, after skirting the Philippines and Tawian. The storm killed at least 37 people and did $3.8 billion in damage. Property damage was widespread in five Chinese provinces as Usagi damaged at least 101,200 homes. This radar image of Usagi shows that the typhoon had multiple concentric eyewalls as it approached landfall. Image credit: weather.com.cn.
Disaster 3. Record rainfall of 8 – 15″ triggered historic flash flooding across in Colorado September 11 – 12, 2013, killing at least nine people and doing $2 billion in damage. The most significant damage occurred in Boulder, Larimer and El Paso counties after several major rivers and creeks crested at all-time highs. The Office of Emergency Management reported that nearly 20,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in addition to thousands of businesses and other structures. One person was also killed by flooding in New Mexico. In this image, we see damage to Highway 34 along the Big Thompson River, on the road to Estes Park, Colorado. Image credit: Colorado National Guard.
Disaster 4. Category 1 Hurricane Ingrid weakened to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds before hitting Mexico about 200 miles south of the Texas border on September 16, 2013. Ingrid’s heavy rains triggered flooding that killed 23 and did $1.5 billion in damage, making the storm the 7th costliest tropical cyclone in Mexican history. In this image, we see Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid laying siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Disaster 5. A series of killing freezes during the second half of September led to extensive agricultural damage in central Chile. A state of emergency was declared after farmers reported that frigid air had destroyed 61% of stoned fruit crops, 57% of almonds, 48% of kiwi crops, and 20% of table grapes. Heavy damage to vineyards also affected wine productivity. Total damage was estimated at $1.15 billion.
Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
For the 18th month in row, September 2013 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2014, as do the large majority of the El Niño models. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive months for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.4°C below average as of October 21, and have been +0.1 to -0.4°C from average since April 1, 2013.
Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest September extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during September was 6th lowest in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the largest September extent since 2009, and a nice change of pace from last year’s all-time record retreat. The Arctic sea ice reached its minimum extent for the year on September 13, and has now begun re-freezing.
New “Tipping Points” episode, “Dangerous Rise of Oceans”, airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the second time on Saturday night, October 26, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, “Dangerous Rise of Oceans”, goes on an expedition from the Great Southern Ocean to the Great Barrier Reef and Tuvalu, to explore the changing currents and oceans that are driving extreme storms, sea surge and changing the landscape of many small South Pacific communities. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point–a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.
Figure 2. “Tipping Points” host Bernice Notenboom visits the Heron Island Research Station on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef during Saturday’s new episode, “Dangerous Rise of Oceans.”
Massive earthquake out of the East Coast Of Honshu, Japan – Extended Tsunami shores advisory
Last update: October 25, 2013 at 5:56 pm by By Ashish Khanal
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Update 17:51 UTC : JMA Japan has extended the reach of the Tsunami waves along almost the full North Eastern Honshu shoreline. NO tsunami higher than 1 meter is expected though
Update 17:51 UTC : More information about the expected tsunami (max. wave 1 meter) – IWATE PREF. 1 m, MIYAGI PREF. #1 m, FUKUSHIMA PREF. 1 m, IBARAKI PREF. 1 m and UJUKURI AND SOTOBO AREA, CHIBA PREF. 1 m. What means a Tsunami height of 1 meter ? : 1 m People will be caught in a strong current in the sea. Fish farming facilities will be washed away and small vessels will capsize.
Update 17:49 UTC : Some stronger waves (tsunami advisory) are still expected (18:00 UTC and 18:20 UTC) :
Update 17:39 UTC : Tsunami message for the Pacific Ocean (many people are waiting for this ) – NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.
Update 17:36 UTC : The epicenter of this earthquake is in the vicinity of Joban Seamount Chain (underwater volcano).
Update 17:34 UTC : We are convinced that the shaking will NOT be damaging. The maximum shaking value as reported by the Japanese agency JMA is JMA4 (Miyagi-ken Hokubu, Miyagi-ken Nambu, Miyagi-ken Chubu, Fukushima-ken Nakadori, Ibaraki-ken Hokubu, Tochigi-ken Hokubu and Tochigi-ken Nambu)
JMA4 : * Most people are startled.
* Hanging objects such as lamps swing significantly.
* Unstable ornaments may fall.
Update 17:27 UTC : JMA Japan reports now a Magntude of 6.8, a lot weaker than the initially reported 7.3 (by other agencies)
Update 17:17 UTC : Max. intensity 4JMA, thats not damaging (preliminary report) Update 17:20 UTC : Tsunami advisory for FUKUSHIMA Update 17:23 UTC : The epicenter is luckily hundreds of kms out of the coast
Image courtesy JMA Japan
325km (202mi) ESE of Ishinomaki, Japan
326km (203mi) E of Namie, Japan
331km (206mi) SE of Ofunato, Japan
333km (207mi) ESE of Yamoto, Japan
475km (295mi) ENE of Tokyo, Japan
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