FLARES LIKELY TODAY: Giant sunspot AR1944 has developed a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for potent Earth-directed eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-class flares and a 30% chance of X-flares on Jan. 5th.
CME, POSSIBLY INCOMING: A coronal mass ejection (CME) might be heading for Earth. The cloud blasted away from the sun during the late hours of Jan 4th following a long-duration M4-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1944. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) recorded the explosion:
The assymetric CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on January 7th, possibly sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms. NOAA analysts are still processing the CME imagery for a more precise forecast.
Watch the movie again. There might be two CMEs in there. After the first cloud from sunspot AR1944 emerged, a second cloud was propelled off the sun’s western limb by departing sunspot AR1936. The mixture of CMEs complicates analysis of this event.
Strong earthquake in Colombia at intermediate depth (felt in Cali and Medellin)
Last update: January 5, 2014 at 6:44 am by By Ashish Khanal
Update 06:39 UTC: The red cross of Colombia reports that1 house was affected in Balboa and there are visible cracks in the fire station of Quinchía in Risaralda .
Update 06:26 UTC: A landslide blocked the route between Yumbo and Mediacanoa.
Update 04:33 UTC : Local sources are locating the epicenter in Sipí, Chocó. The Fire Departments of the region have not received any calls of damage yet. Based on our experience 2 to 3 hours is at least needed to assess eventual damage, although we expect NO serious damage or injuries from this earthquake
Update 04:12 UTC : Ingeominas Colombia reports a Magnitude of M5.2 at a depth of 32 km, less than initially reported by some international agencies.
Update 04:06 UTC : Based on the (back office) MMI shaking values people have felt the earthquake as a moderate to strong shaking in the populated areas closest to the epicenter.
Update 03:58 UTC : Preliminary Magnitude as reported by USGS : M5.3 at a depth of 61 km. Based on the available data at this moment, we do not think that this earthquake will generate serious damage.
Strong earthquake in Colombia at intermediate depth
The depth of the earthquake is the reason that the earthquake was felt in a wide radius.
USGS
40km (25mi) W of El Dovio, Colombia
51km (32mi) WNW of Roldanillo, Colombia
55km (34mi) W of La Union, Colombia
57km (35mi) W of Toro, Colombia
279km (173mi) W of Bogota, Colombia
EMSC
129 km N of Cali, Colombia / pop: 2,392,877 / local time: 22:36:41.0 2014-01-04
40 km S of Nóvita, Colombia / pop: 1,898 / local time: 22:36:41.0 2014-01-04
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.4
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2014-01-04 22:36:36
Rare earthquake lights are more likely to occur on or near rift environments, where subvertical faults allow stress-induced electrical currents to flow rapidly to the surface, according to a new study published in the Jan./Feb. issue of Seismological Research Letters.
An earthquake light is an unusual luminous aerial phenomenon that reportedly appears in the sky at or near areas of tectonic stress, seismic activity, or volcanic eruptions. Once commonly challenged, it was not until photographs were taken during the Matsushiro earthquake swarm in Nagano, Japan (which occurred from 1965 through 1967) that the seismology community acknowledged their occurrence.
From the early days of seismology, the luminous phenomena associated with some earthquakes have intrigued scholars. Earthquake lights (EQL) appear before or during earthquakes, but rarely after.
Earthquake lights from Tagish Lake, Yukon-Alaska border region, around the 1st of July, probably 1972 or 1973 (exact date unknown). Estimated size: 1m diameter. Closest orbs slowly drifted up the mountain to join the more distant ones.
Credit: Photo credit: Jim Conacher, used with permission
EQL take a variety of forms, including spheres of light floating through the air. Seconds before the 2009 L’Aquila, Italy earthquake struck, pedestrians saw 10-centimeter high flames of light flickering above the stone-paved Francesco Crispi Avenue in the town’s historical city center. On Nov. 12, 1988, a bright purple-pink globe of light moved through the sky along the St. Lawrence River near the city of Quebec, 11 days before a powerful quake. And in 1906, about 100 km northwest of San Francisco, a couple saw streams of light running along the ground two nights preceding that region’s great earthquake.
Continental rift environments now appear to be the common factor associated with EQL. In a detailed study of 65 documented EQL cases since 1600 A.D., 85 percent appeared spatially on or near rifts, and 97 percent appeared adjacent to subvertical faults (a rift, a graben, strike-slip or transform fault). Intraplate faults are associated with just 5 percent of Earth’s seismic activity, but 97 percent of documented cases of earthquake lights.
“The numbers are striking and unexpected,” said Robert Thériault, a geologist with the Ministère des Ressources Naturelles of Québec, who, along with colleagues, culled centuries of literature references, limiting the cases in this study to 65 of the best-documented events in the Americas and Europe.
“We don’t know quite yet why more earthquake light events are related to rift environments than other types of faults,” said Thériault, “but unlike other faults that may dip at a 30-35 degree angle, such as in subduction zones, subvertical faults characterize the rift environments in these cases.”
Two of the 65 EQL events are associated with subduction zones, but Thériault suggests there may be an unknown subvertical fault present. “We may not know the fault distribution beneath the ground,” said Thériault. “We have some idea of surface structures, but sedimentary layers or water may obscure the underlying fault structure.”
While the 65 earthquakes ranged in magnitude, from M 3.6 to 9.2, 80 percent were greater than M 5.0. The EQL varied in shape and extent, though most commonly appeared as globular luminous masses, either stationary or moving, as atmospheric illuminations or as flame-like luminosities issuing from the ground.
Timing and distance to the epicenter vary widely. Most EQL are seen before and/or during an earthquake, but rarely after, suggesting to the authors that the processes responsible for EQL formation are related to a rapid build-up of stress prior to fault rupture and rapid local stress changes during the propagation of the seismic waves. Stress-activated mobile electronic charge carriers, termed positive holes, flow swiftly along stress gradients. Upon reaching the surface, they ionize air molecules and generate the observed luminosities.
Eyewitness reports and security cameras captured a large number of light flashes during the 2007 Pisco, Peru M 8.0 earthquake. Together with seismic records obtained on a local university campus, the automatic security camera records allow for an exact timing and location of light flashes that illuminated a large portion of the night sky. The light flashes identified as EQL coincided with the passage of the seismic waves.
Thériault likes the account of a local L’Aquila resident, who, after seeing flashes of light from inside his home two hours before the main shock, rushed his family outside to safety.
“It’s one of the very few documented accounts of someone acting on the presence of earthquake lights,” said Thériault. “Earthquake lights as a pre-earthquake phenomenon, in combination with other types of parameters that vary prior to seismic activity, may one day help forecast the approach of a major quake,” said Thériault.
A previously undetected asteroid entered the Earth’s atmosphere and exploded over the Atlantic Ocean, 2,200 miles off the coast of Venezuela yesterday.
The rock, the size of a car is estimated to have had an impact energy of around 750 tons of TNT. Small in cosmic terms but enough to have caused massive problems if it had hit a population center.
It has been named 2014AA, a number letter combination that indicates it was the first asteroid discovered this year, sadly it was discovered somewhat late…like after it exploded.
This incident serves to remind us all that the mission to map all space debris, junk and rocks that are likely to pose a threat to the planet is far from complete.
In other space news sunspot AR1944 is now twice the size of Earth and contains a dozen dark cores with the magnetic energy to throw off powerful flares. The spot is so big it can be seen at sunset with the naked eye.
Photo: Raymund Sarmiento of Quezon City, the Philippines
The effect of any flares today will be mitigated by the fact that the sunspot is not yet directly facing Earth. However, even an off-center blast from this behemoth could produce radio blackouts and geomagnetic activity.
NOAA has increased their estimate of M-class flares to 75% and X-class to 30% over the next 24 hours.
Solar wind from the large Earth-facing coronal hole is giving rise to spectacular aurorae, such as this photographed by Chad Blakley in Sweden.
Chris Carrington is a writer, researcher and lecturer with a background in science, technology and environmental studies
Strong dangerous earthquake in Southern Iran – At least 1 killed and 30 injured + a lot of damage
Last update: January 2, 2014 at 6:06 pm by By Ashish Khanal
Update 17:53 UTC : The following picture illustrates the power of the earthquake.
The impact of the earthquake in the epicenter area is very hight with about 60% of the houses damaged. 10% is uninhabitable. Tents and other aid are being delivered to this area. Unfortunately a lot of infrastructure (bridges, power lines and administration buildings were also damaged)
Image courtesy and copyright ISNA Iran
Update 10:01 UTC :
Iran is, after China, the most dangerous country in the world for earthquakes, mainly because of the type of earthquakes.
Image courtesy and copyright farsnews.com
Update 06:45 UTC:
30 injured people are now confirmed, from which 14 are treated outpatient. 3 people, who were buried under the debris of collapsed houses, were severely injured.
Not only Bastak (which has approx. 8000 inhabitants), but also other villages near the epicenter suffered damage. The Red Crescent is currently evaluating the exact extend of damage.
A strong and shallow earthquake hit the Iranian province Hormozgan this morning and caused extensive damage in surrounding towns and villages. According to initial reports, many houses collaped or were severely damaged. Others suffered minor damage. Esspecially the town Bastak, only a few km west of the epicenter, is affected. So far it is conformed, that one resident was killed and 15 others were injured.
Nearby Cities
47km (29mi) S of Lar, Iran
53km (33mi) SSE of Gerash, Iran
87km (54mi) NNE of Kish, Iran
89km (55mi) NNW of Bandar-e Lengeh, Iran
309km (192mi) N of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.3
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2014-01-02 06:43:58
The eruption of Nishinoshima with the new island joining with the original Nishinoshima island, seen on December 26, 2013. Image: Japan Coast Guard
Quick volcano news update from Japan! The eruption at Nishinoshima continues and now the new island is no more … because it has joined up with the actual island of Nishinoshima (see above). This is a great example of how volcanic island like this in the Bonin Islands grow over hundreds to thousands of eruptions. Compare these two NASA Earth Observatory images to see how the island has grown between December 8 to December 24. The Japan Coast Guard has also posted a map (see below) that shows how the shape of the coastline for the new island has changed across the course of the eruption — and it is dramatic how quickly the island has grown, especially between December 13 and 24. Some video taken from a helicopter flight above the volcano shows the new island and its continued eruption (with discolored water surrounding it) and a very active spatter cone producing the lava flows.
Very Strong earthquake in the Mediterranean Sea in between Cyprus and Turkey
Last update: December 28, 2013 at 7:11 pm by By Ashish Khanal
IMPORTANT UPDATE 18:59 UTC : RUMORS are currently circulating that a massive earthquake might strike soon along the Turkish coast. We want to stress that NOBODY in the world can currently predict the time and the strength of an earthquake. Aftershocks are a normal process and may go on for days and even weeks. Most of them will not be felt as they are occurring below the sea floor. So, PLEASE NEVER BELIEVE RUMORS AND BE ALWAYS PREPARED FOR A STRONG EARTHQUAKE.
Update 18:14 UTC : Somebody reported that the power failures in some places were due to a thunderstorm and NOT the earthquake
Update 17:14 UTC : Some shore locations in Turkey (like Sorgun) have a power failure and are hotels are currently working on emergency diesel generators.
Update 16:55 UTC : Numerous aftershocks are occurring in the epicenter area in the sea. Only a few of them will have been felt by people.
Update 16:41 UTC : Power failures are reported in parts of Cyprus. Until now we have not received (as expected) any report of injuries or serious damage.
Update 16:32 UTC : Instead of panicking during the shaking of an earthquake, people (also tourists) should read on “what to do if shaking starts”. Internationally accepted measures are definitely NOT running outside. In case of a very strong earthquake you can’t even walk anymore! Click here to read the instructions (in case it happens again)
Update 16:23 UTC : Reports of panic are being received. Other reports are confirming cracks in walls of hotels (and probably also of residential houses).
Update 16:22 UTC : Contrary to what could be expected based on the theoretical intensity values of the map below, our readers are reporting in average a light to moderate shaking (MMI IV and V) ! We know from our experience that earthquakes with a rupture point at an intermediate depth of 50 km are perceived as stronger than theoretically calculated.
Update 15:57 UTC : We have received an experience report from a reader in Side who has seen some small fissures in the wall. Anyone else seeing this kind of small damage, please send in your Experience report with the form below.
Update : This is how this earthquake looks like on a seismogram of the region.
The light blue shaded area on the map shows the theoretical shaking (max. weak shaking) of this earthquake.
Update 15:31 UTC : USGS has just published even better numbers than initially reported. The Magnitude has been decreased to 5.8 at a depth of 51 km. This makes that it was felt in a wide radius, BUT that it will normally NOT generate serious damage.
Update 15:28 UTC : There is NO danger for a tsunami at this magnitude.
Update 15:26 UTC : Based on the preliminary data we see at this moment, we expect NO serious damage in Cyprus or Turkey as the epicenter is below the Mediterranean Sea at a depth of 40 to 50 km.
80km (50mi) SSW of Avsallar, Turkey
86km (53mi) SW of Alanya, Turkey
89km (55mi) S of Manavgat, Turkey
93km (58mi) SE of Tekirova, Turkey
204km (127mi) WNW of Nicosia, Cyprus
A special thanks to Vice and The Creators Project for filming an awesome behind the scenes video and finally letting me tell my story about my learning disability and how art has helped me find my path in life.
You can check out the video here: youtube.com/watch?v=lxxV5mIcI9E&;
*The “3 Suns Rising” In 2 of the Milky Way clips are off shore oil rigs.*
“Into The Atmosphere,” is my tribute to the state of California and the beautiful deserts, mountains and coastlines that exist there. This video showcases a variety of national/state parks as well as less recognized natural areas. The video also focuses on clouds, fog and interesting atmospheric conditions. Although California is known for blue sunshine skies, seeing a colorful storm cloud over Half Dome or an incredible sunset at the La Jolla Coves is really a sight to see. The goal of this video is to show these environments in their best possible light.
Living in California all my life, I had as much time as I needed to really capture the essence and beauty it provides. This video was an ongoing project for about a year with an estimated 75,000 images taken, and about 12,400 made it into the 3.5 minute piece.
My Grandmother Alice Harpin passed away during the last two weeks of shooting this video. The film is dedicated to her memory. Without her and the love of my family this video would not have been possible.
To create this video there were many nights sleeping outside, and many days spent in the wild to embrace the environment and get to know the surroundings. There is a common misconception about Timelapse shooters that we quickly set up cameras and go sleep in the car for hours at a time, which is far from the truth. We are constantly hiking heavy equipment through dangerous areas and spending time camping in uncomfortable situations, I love it and wouldn’t trade it for anything else.
Some of the locations are Mono Lake, Anza Borrego Desert, Alabama Hills, Trona Pinnacles, Big Sur, Mount Laguna, Santa Maria, Yosemite, Gaviota, The Ancient Bristlecone Pine Forest, La Jolla Coves, Santa Ynez, the San Francisco Coast, and the Santa Barbara Mountains.
El Hierro Volcano activity report – Continued (mixed) upward deformation – New deformation data (Dec. 26)
Last update: December 26, 2013 at 12:10 pm by By Armand Vervaeck
2013-12-26 12:07 UTC To make the deformation graphs a bit easier to read for our readers, we have created a map showing the axis where the most lifting has been noticed until the latest incoming data. Most earthquakes did occur and continue to occur to the East and South-East of the HI08 GPS station
2013-12-26 11:00 UTC IGN has just released new Ultra Rapid deformation data showing a continuous lifting in some parts and a stagnation in other parts.
The island inflates further with 1.5 cm in both HI08 (El Pinar) and HI09 (La Restinga) which brings the strongest inflation area 7 cm higher than prior to the crisis.
HI02 and HI03 (Sabinosa – El Golfo area) are stagnating or even deflating a little.
HI01 and FRON are lifting also another 1.5 cm.
Will be followed …
Click on this image to see the details in full size
Click on this image to see the details in full size
2013-12-26 09:16 UTC Still only a few earthquakes since midnight, but this may change based on the latest data not yet included in the list.
Volcanic tremor (indicating magma movement, still deep below the island) has been recorded by many instruments on the island.
The Upwards deformation was also confirmed by the latest Involcan/Uni of Nagoya PINA GPS station. In order to reference the current deformation vs the deformations from earlier crisis, we have included the PINA Involcan/Uni of Nagoya GPS data sheet (unfortunately the Pre-2012 data is not included). The increase we witness now can indeed be called “spectacular”.
2013-12-25 22:58 UTC – A very interesting new episode in the current crisis. A calm seismic period but a continued deformation, both vertical and horizontal. In earlier crisis, once the seismic unrest stopped, also the deformation leveled or stagnated. No the lifting continues in most points as the latest IGN GPS stations are showing. All this means that this crisis is not over yet and that new seismicity is evident when the island is pushed upwards. The Upwards deformation data are really spectacular (U side of the graphs) – In only 3 days HI09 (La Restinga) lifted 6 cm! and HI08 (El Pinar) 5 cm. But not only the South-Eastern side of the island was lifted, but also most of the El Golfo area with an average of 4 cm.
for more information, go to: http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/25/el-hierro-canary-islands-spain-volcanic-risk-alert-increased-to-yellow/