Atlantic’s First Invest of the 2015, 90L, Organizing Over the Bahamas
By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 3:50 PM GMT on May 06, 2015
2015: May 6
2014: June 4
2013: May 18
2012: February 5
2011: March 10
2010: May 24
2009: May 18
2008: May 31
2007: May 8
2006: June 10
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 90L.
Satellite loops show heavy thunderstorms between the Southeast coast of Florida and the Northwest Bahamas in association with 90L increased on Wednesday morning, but there was no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida showed no low-level spiral bands trying to form, and the activity was not well-organized. Wind shear was a moderate to high 15 – 25 knots. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west of 90L over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air is retarding development, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the west driving the dry air into the core of 90L. Ocean temperatures were near 26°C (79°F), which is about 1.7°C (3°F) above average for this time of year, and just at the limit of where a tropical storm can form. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for Wednesday afternoon was cancelled, and has be re-scheduled for Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
Figure 2. Wind forecast for Saturday, May 9, 2015 at 11 am EDT made by the 00Z Wednesday run of the European model. The model is predicting a subtropical depression to be off the coast of the Southeast U.S.
Forecast for 90L
The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear over 90L would fall to the moderate range, 10 – 20 knots, on Thursday and Friday, which should allow 90L to approach subtropical depression status by Friday at the latest. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University from Wednesday morning’s 06Z run of the GFS model support the idea that this system could be a subtropical or tropical system by Friday. Ocean temperatures fall to about 25°C (77°F) in the waters off of the North Carolina coast, so the farther north the storm wanders, the tougher time it will have developing tropical characteristics–though if the storm manages to find a sweet spot over the core of the warm Gulf Stream current, it has better odds of development. Steering currents are weak over the waters off the Southeast U.S. coast, so expect a slow and erratic motion for 90L. The Wednesday morning 00Z runs of our two top models for predicting tropical cyclones tracks, the European and GFS models, both showed the system making landfall this weekend, with the GFS model predicting landfall in South Carolina on Saturday, and the European model taking the storm ashore in North Carolina on Sunday. Beginning on Friday, coastal regions of both of these states can expect heavy rains and high surf causing rip currents and coastal erosion. Note that the west side of 90L will be weaker and drier, due to the dry air to the west of the storm, and the heaviest rains and stongest winds of 90L will be on the east side of the storm, over North Carolina. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 60%, respectively.
Wunderblogger Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at the meteorology of 90L in his Wednesday afternoon post.
Figure 3. Latest projected track of Typhoon Noul from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC); a time of 9:00 p.m. JST Wednesday is 1200 GMT or 8 am EDT.
Typhoon Noul posing an increased threat to northern Philippines
After dumping more than 10 inches of rain at Yap International Airport, Category 1 Typhoon Noul is on its way toward the northern Philippines. Noel is gradually intensifying, with sustained winds of 90 mph reported at 8 am EDT (1200 GMT) Wednesday. Satellite loops show that the storm’s center is obscured by central dense overcast, but microwave data obtained by satellite shows that an open eye is already present. Noel is well structured and passing over warm waters, with only weak to moderate wind shear, so continued strengthening into a Category 4 storm is expected. Noel will encounter a trough as it approaches the Philippines, which may force the storm to recurve before making landfall there. However, model guidance has been trending westward, albeit with some uncertainty, and the official Joint Typhoon Warning Center track (see Figure 3) now brings Noul ashore along the northeast coast of Luzon, the largest and northernmost island of the Philippines. Noel is expected to peak in intensity just a few hours before approaching Luzon, with sustained winds of 105 knots (120 mph) projected by the JTWC near landfall. The northeast part of Luzon is mountainous, which could increase the risk for very heavy rains as Noul moves onshore or nearby, although a grazing landfall would put most of Luzon on the weaker western side of the circulation. Noul will be referred to as Dodong in the Philippines’ naming system.
Another tropical system, Invest 93W, is organizing to the east, and is likely to develop late this wee. It is too soon to know what its chances are of affecting the Philippines or Japan next week.
An exceptionally busy early portion of typhoon season
Noul’s formation date of May 3 marks the second earliest appearance on record for the Northwest Pacific’s sixth named storm of the year, according to statistics of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s database from 1951 – 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon. The average is 1.8 storms before May 8. The record is held by 1971, when the sixth named storm of the year (Babe) formed on May 3, six hours earlier than Noul’s formation time. Noul will be the second tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines so far in 2015. The first was Tropical Storm Maysak, which hit the Philippines exceptionally early in the season–during Easter weekend, April 4 – 5. Fortunately, Maysak was weakening rapidly as it made landfall, and no deaths or significant damage were reported (though four people were injured after huge waves generated by Maysak hit them while they were taking selfies along the shoreline of Dipaculao town in Aurora province on April 4.)
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
from: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2975
Deadly earthquake Nepal – At least 802 fatalities so far – economic losses 3-5 billion US$
Last update: April 25, 2015 at 1:34 pm by By Armand Vervaeck
Earthquake-report.com only survives with (mostly small) PRIVATE DONATIONS. Your gift will be highly appreciated.
This page will automatically refresh every 6 minutes as we might be adding updates. Do not close it but leave it open in a browser tab.
This report has been compiled by Armand Veraveck, Dr. James Daniell (CEDIM Karlsruhe), Jens Skapski and Carlos Robles.
NEPAL EARTHQUAKE FATALITY UPDATE (latest numbers we have) : 802 (758 Nepal, 7 China, 35 India and 2 Bangladesh)
–
Update 13:02 UTC : SUPERFAST aid is arriving from India. On board Search and Rescue personnel. What a great move from India !!!
Update 12:49 UTC : We have no word yet from Chinese rescuers being send to Nepal. Nepal will need as much external SaR people as possible. They will have to be flown in from everywhere in the world. Chinese rescue workers are of course also working in China as a lot of damage has been inflicted in Tibet. China reported 7 people killed by this earthquake.
Update 12:46 UTC : The seismogram recorded by Geofon in Kabul. Closer to the epicenter it will be a completely filled up with color!
Update 12:41 UTC : the Nepali government has declared the State of Emergency (anything less was not logic)
Update 12:41 UTC : People searching for friends and family members in Nepal can best use both the Google People’s Finder
Update 12:38 UTC : reports starting to come in from Gorkha district where villages have suffered severe damage and now cut off.
Update 12:34 UTC : the tweet below is one of the first ones coming from the greater epicenter area
Update 12:10 UTC : A lot of Nepali laborers are reading our pages from Qatar and Oman. We @ER truly hope that all your friends and family members are safe
Update 12:06 UTC : The earthquake toll is further climbing in Nepal and India – 750 fatalities reported so far (711 Nepal, 7 China, 30 India and 2 Bangladesh)
Update 11:32 UTC : 630 fatalities reported so far (597 Nepal, 7 China, 24 India and 2 Bangladesh)
Important update 11:8 UTC : Based on the USGS intensity values a lot more fatalities are to be expected (depending on the imported shaking values 1400 to 7500 fatalities). Let’s truly hope that we do not reach 1000 but we fear for the villages in the direct epicenter area.
Update 11:10 UTC : New fatalities numbers : 565 Nepal, 24 India, 6 China and 2 Bangladesh or 597 total
Update 11:10 UTC : Below the focal mechanism of the earthquake who is showing a mainly Thrust earthquake type
Update 10:59 UTC : 6 people are now reported killed on the Everest (avalanches). Avalanches and landslides will cause many deaths elsewhere in Nepal but nothing is known so far.
Update 10:40 UTC : New fatalities number as reported by REUTERS (we could not get a confirmation elsewhere of this number) : 449 fatalities alone in Nepal so far. To be added 29 from Bangladesh, China and India – preliminary total : 478 Sad!
Update 10:24 UTC : The death toll in Nepal alone has climbed to 202 without 1 person from the direct epicenter area!
Important Update 10:09 UTC : Everything we have reported so far and counting already many fatalities (6 are reported in China) comes from the main populated town like Kathmandu. We have NO REPORT YET from the direct epicenter. Roads towards the hardest hit villages will almost certainly have been devastated and are at no use for rescue personnel. We expect major tragedies in these areas. It will take probably until tomorrow before we have news from the direct epicenter area. Sad, very sad.
Update 09:55 UTC : At least 19 people killed in India. Damage as far as Delhi! 2people killed in Bangladesh
Update 09:46 UTC : A friend just reports from Kathmandu : “Lots of casualties around as it is shaking since 2 hrs regularly every 15 minutes we are very much frightening and staying safely outside at outside our open building.”
Important Update 09:29 UTC : At least 150 people killed in Kathmandu, 1 in China, 10 in Pokhara, 2 at Mount Everest Base Camp and 11 in India (2 caused by mass panic)
Update 09:27 UTC : Emergency numbers in Nepal
Update 09:22 UTC : Reports are reaching us that the Base Camp of Mount Everest has been damaged seriously. Some people (number unsure have been killed – to be reconfirmed)
Update 09:20 UTC : As many as 10 people were killed in Nepal’s picturesque Pokhara area. If we overlook the situation we can tell that at this moment we have certainty that at least 100 people were killed during this earthquake. This count has not 1 person from the direct epicenter area.
Update 09:19 UTC : IANS reports that a total of five people, including two children, were killed when buildings collapsed in different parts of Bihar following the earthquake. The two children of the same family died in a wall collapse in Bhagalpur. One person each were killed in Sitamarhi, Darbhanga and Vaishali.
Update 09:12 UTC : The earthquake cost coming out of Dr. James Daniells theoretical models goes up to 2.5 billion US$!
Update 09:11 UTC : Nepal’s information minister has told BBC that there has been massive damage in Gorkha, Lamjung and Bhaktapur.
Update 09:08 UTC : some pictures circulating on the internet are clearly from other earthquakes. Why are people doing things like this?
Update 09:04 UTC : Damage and collapsed houses are reported not only in Nepal, but also in Tibet and in India. The death toll is further rising.
Update 08:53 UTC – 1.8 million people have sustained a very strong shaking and potential damage.
Important update 08:38 UTC : so far 30 people have been reported killed in Nepal. This number will rise every hour. No news from the epicenter area yet. 3 people killed in Bihar India and 1 in Siliguri
Update 08:33 UTC : We expect most of the villages on the map below to have been almost completely devastated. These are mostly small villages up to a couple of thousand people. Many people will have been in the field or in the open air due to the time of the earthquake
Update 08:30 UTC : Carlos : Nepal’s Lamjung, the epicentre of the quake, has reportedly flattened and only few buildings there are believed to be standing. (zeenews India) – 1 dead in West Bengal after wall collapsed
Update 08:28 UTC : reports are telling us that damage and injuries are noted as far as Bangladesh and India. A Chinese tourist is reported dead at Pohara
Update 08:14 UTC : We do fear for total devastation of the epicenter area based on what we can see from 80 km away in Kathmandy. Distressed people fearing that their loves ones are dead. Cruel!
Update 08:05 UTC : Message from the Everest area (far away from the epicenter)
Update 07:59 UTC : Our Median with a lot f uncertainlty comes out at an expected 1750 fatalities. Let’s hope it is less. Below world famous Durbar Square in Kathmandu. The temples are just in rubble !
Update 07:53 UTC : Sherpas are reporting avalanches on the Mount Everest (not necessarily leading to victims)
Update 07:51 UTC : Official death count so far is 5 in Nepal and 1 in India (these are the first numbers). We expect it to rise at least into the hundreds.
Update 07:50 UTC : 400 feared trapped in Kathmandu’s Dharara Tower after massive 7.9 magnitude earthquake (source NDTV)
Update 07:42 UTC : The 19th century Bhimsen Tower in Kathmandu has collapsed.
Update 07:32 UTC : Especially the older Kathmandu buildings have sustained damage BUT Kathmandu is +80 km from the epicneter. The real tragedy is expected to have occurred in a radius of 20 to 30 km from the epicenter
Image from Kathmandu
Update : The first fatalities are reported originating from collapsed homes
Update : massive aftershocks are reported from the earthquake zone. The aftershocks will add to the damage –
Important Update : USGS had increased the Magnitude to M7.9 at an extreme shallow depth of 15
km which means that there will be almost a complete devastation in a radius of 20 km around the epicenter.
Update : Both pictures below are from Kathmandu
Update : Cell phone service is paralyzed throughout Nepal (Tamil news). Strong aftershocks are expected. In fact a M5.5 just happened a few minutes ago. Also aftershocks are expected to be more devastating.
Update : Dr. James Daniel has put all data in his theoretical model and expects in between 1400 and 7500 fatalities. To be trusted shaking intensities are still missing so these numbers are still raw estimates.
Update : reports of collapsed houses in Kathmandu AND Pokhara
Update : Jens and Carlos who are monitoring local media are reporting huge damage in Pokahara and Kathmandu, both cities are at least 70 km from the epicenter.
Update : Based on theoretical models Dr. James Daniell expect losses to be between $250 and $750 million based on early population and intensity estimates
Update : ER expects a lot of fatalities. How many : too soon to make an estimate. Massive landslides alone can count for many. At least one good thing : the earthquake happened during daylight and in the Nepali spring = less victims
A cruel earthquake happened in the pre-Himalaya ranges of Nepal just in between Kathmandu and Pokara. We expected a lot of devastation and massive landslides
35km (22mi) E of Lamjung, Nepal
60km (37mi) NNE of Bharatpur, Nepal
75km (47mi) E of Pokhara, Nepal
76km (47mi) NW of Kirtipur, Nepal
77km (48mi) NW of Kathmandu, Nepal
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 7.8
Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2015-04-25 11:56:26
GMT/UTC Time : 2015-04-25 06:11:26
Depth (Hypocenter) : 18 km
from: http://earthquake-report.com/2015/04/25/massive-earthquake-nepal-on-april-25-2015/