CHANCE OF FLARES: Growing sunspot AR1974 is crackling with M-class solar flares and poses a threat for even stronger X-class eruptions. Sergio Castillo sends this picture of the active region from his backyard observatory in Inglewood,CA:

“Sunspot AR1974 looks really active with minor flare activity,” says Castillo. “It hasn’t unleashed a strong flare yet, but this can change at any time.”

Indeed, the sunspot has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that seems to be teetering on the edge of a significant flare. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Feb. 14th

fr/spaceweather.com