Deadly earthquake near Minxian, Gansu, China – at least 95 killed and +1000 injured – Update July 24

Last update: July 24, 2013 at 2:22 pm by By Armand Vervaeck & James Daniell & Jens Skapski & Carlos Robles

Update : the expected shaking at some Chinese cities based on the data from USGS (M5.9). Chinese have M6.6 but deeper than USGS which may after all have the same intensity.

Update : The Chinese seismological authority has reported a M6.6 at a depth of 20 km, an even grimmer perspective than the M5.9 from USGS on which the data below have been calculated. There is no reason not to believe the data from the Chinese as they are highly specialized in earthquakes.

Update : USGS expects a very strong MMI VII shaking for approx. 19,000 people, a strong shaking for 150,000 people and a moderate shaking for 379,000 people.

A very dangerous earthquake struck the Gansu province, China

13km (8mi) E of Chabu, China
151km (94mi) W of Beidao, China
154km (96mi) SE of Linxia, China
177km (110mi) SSE of Lanzhou, China
1233km (766mi) WSW of Beijing, China

Most important Earthquake Data:

Magnitude : 6

Local Time (conversion only below land) : 2013-07-22 07:45:57

GMT/UTC Time : 2013-07-21 23:45:57

Depth (Hypocenter)  : 10 km

Update 13:46 UTC : Good and important news from the earthquake region. The ministry of transportation has ended all repair work at the National and Provincial roads in the earthquake region. This will enable relief and rescue trucks to transport the necessary equipment closer to the epicenter area.

Update 12:51 UTC : Something ER just learned now in reading the earthquake responsive : Veterinary emergency task group that works closely together with the Ministry of agriculture to assess asap all animal related topics, like prevent dead animals becoming sources sickness, getting abandoned animals to their owner, helping farmers manage their stock. This service is extremely important in rural areas where animals are often the only wealth of the owner. The teams include also veterinarians.

Update 12:15 UTC : Just like it happened in the Sichuan earthquake a couple of months ago, the Central Disaster Management team has taken over the lead in the rescue and relief efforts. Premier Li Keqying will overview personally every effort going on for rescue and relief. Earthquakes in China are divided into different categories. Some do only need local county response, others Province and the very big ones are managed by the Central Government.
An earthquake which is managed buy the Central Bejing Government has all possible power to engage whatever means possible. Army, police even temporarily allocation of civilian aircraft lies in their power.
We can make sure to our readers that this response is by far the most efficient in the world. Will it be perfect ? Never, but since we cover almost every earthquake in the world who needs assistance, we know what we are talking about. Congratulations to the Chinese response teams.

Premier Li Keqying on his way to the recent Sichuan earthquake to manage relief and rescue efforts

Update 11:19 UTC : A video from a China News channel with a reporter in the earthquake damaged areas (can be slow to load)

Important Update 10:22 UTC :
Sad to report that the victim numbers are increasing by the hour (these are all “at least” numbers):
– 75 people are now confirmed as being killed
– 14 have been recorded as missing
– 584 people are being treated for all kinds of injuries
– Chinese seismologists have said that the shaking intensity near the epicenter must have been VIII or “severe shaking”

Update 10:30 UTC : The experts of the China Earthquake Network have given more details about the technicalities behind the quake. They speak about the influence of stronger earthquakes the last 10 years on the faults that triggered this earthquake. The fault is likely a North South direction fault. Ano no major earthquake happened in this area since 1900 (see also our bottom map), stress has accumulated and has been released now. Perfectly normal are telling the scientists. 405 aftershocks so far, some of them +5. They expect this to go on for at least a week with +5 still possible. For that reason they ask people to be super-careful and not to live in damaged houses. For those camping in the open, they ask people to be careful and look at the terrain at all sides, mainly to avoid secondary geological elements like landslides, flash floods, etc.

Update 10:15 UTC : To imagine better the destruction the earthquake has inflicted, the picture below.
At least 14 people are still missing.

Update 10:00 UTC :  Weather during and immediately after an earthquake is incredibly important both for the chance on landslides and the way rescue has to be organized and relief goods to be distributed.  Bernhard Mühr from KIT Karlsruhe has made a short study on what to expect in the earthquake area until the end of July. The conclusion of this in-depth weather forecast : very good considering the monsoon period.

Brief Meteorological and Climatological Overview
Minxian and Zhangxian Districts, Gansu, China
Issued: Monday, July 22, 2013
Climatological Overview

There is a strong gradient in precipitation from Lantschau southward. The districts hit by the earthquake, Minxian and Zhangxian, expect significantly more rain than Lantschau. The  monthly rain amounts during the summer months are about twice as much (~100-150 mm).
The districts in many places have rugged terrain, narrow valleys are located between mountain ranges that rise to more than 3000 meters.
Monsoon rains often are associated with thunderstorms and are of great intensity. These downpours frequently lead to sudden rise of river levels, flooding and might trigger landslides.

Long term average (1961-1990) mean of rain in July in south-east asia. Red rectangle indicates the earthquake region. Source: www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de, Data source: Climate Research Unit

Rain forecast
The latest GFS-model run (July 22, 2013, 00 UTC) doesn’t show much rain for the next 8 days in the affected area. Widespread and large rain amounts are not to be expected. However, in unstable monsoon airmasses localized rain areas and thunderstorms might occur any time.  Their intensity can be large and thus cause problems with river levels and landslides at places.

RaiRRain forecast: Accumulated rain during the next 8 days until July 30, 2013. In the region hit by the earthquake (rectangle) large and widespread rain amounts are not very likely until end of month.
Source: www.wettergefahren-fruehwarnung.de; Data source: GFS model run, July 22, 2013, 00 UTC

Update 09:34 UTC : The number of injured persons has increased to 462 (from 412)
As we have expected it fropm almost immediately after the earthquake hit, landslides have also been triggered. At least 10 houses have been buried in Meixian, Minxian county.

Update 08:51 UTC : Chinese are far better pupils if it comes to earthquake preparedness than most other countries in the world. One example : once out of the building, most people evacuate to the middle of the street or in open places.

Update 08:47 UTC : A picture we will see more and more in the future. Death toll will decrease considerably in the future due to earthquake resistant (new) houses and apartment buildings. The villages in the rural areas do not have the money to build this way and people are in great majority still living in very old primitive houses. Conclusion : less and less fatalities in (modern) cities and only a fraction less in rural areas.

from:    http://earthquake-report.com/2013/07/21/very-strong-earthquake-gansu-china-on-july-21-2013/