Monthly Archives: April 2012

Quiet Hurricane Season Expected

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fr/Dr. Jeff Masters:

CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012 +29
Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 – 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as “analogue” years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA’s NESDISbranch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August – September – October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year’s SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we’ve seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don’t have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called “predictability barrier.” April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

to read more, go to:    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2067

New CME

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INCOMING CME: NOAA forecasters estimate a 25% chance of strong geomagnetic storms around the poles on April 8-9 when a CME delivers a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field. The cloud was propelled in our direction by a solar filament, which erupted on April 5th (movie). High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

from: spacewweather.com

Link: Midwest Earthquakes & Oil & Gas Production?

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Oil and gas production linked to spike in Midwest earthquakes: study

A six-fold increase in earthquakes since the late 20th century is “almost certainly man-made,” the report concludes

BY 

Saturday, April 7, 2012,
Peak oil theory warns that once the fossile fuel is depleted, we'll be headed back to the stone age.

FERRARI/AP

A new study links a rise in Midwest earthquakes to oil and gas production.

NEW YORK — Oil and gas production may explain a sharp increase in small earthquakes in the nation’s midsection, a new study from the U.S. Geological Survey suggests.

The rate has jumped six-fold from the late 20th century through last year, the team reports, and the changes are “almost certainly man-made.”

Outside experts were split in their opinions about the report, which is not yet published but is due to be presented at a meeting later this month.
The study said a relatively mild increase starting in 2001 comes from increased quake activity in a methane production area along the state line between Colorado and New Mexico. The increase began about the time that methane production began there, so there’s a “clear possibility” of a link, says lead author William Ellsworth of the USGS.
The increase over the nation’s midsection has gotten steeper since 2009, due to more quakes in a variety of oil and gas production areas, including some in Arkansas and Oklahoma, the researchers say.
It’s not clear how the earthquake rates might be related to oil and gas production, the study authors said. They note that others have linked earthquakes to injecting huge amounts of leftover wastewater deep into the earth.
There has been concern about potential earthquakes from a smaller-scale injection of fluids during a process known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which is used to recover gas. But Ellsworth said Friday he is confident that fracking is not responsible for the earthquake trends his study found, based on prior studies.
The study covers a swath of the United States that lies roughly west of Ohio and east of Utah. It counted earthquakes of magnitude 3 and above.
Magnitude 3 quakes are mild, and may be felt by only a few people in the upper floors of buildings, or may cause parked cars to rock slightly. The biggest counted in the study was a magnitude-5.6 quake that hit Oklahoma last Nov. 5, damaging dozens of homes. Experts said it was too strong to be linked to oil and gas production.
The researchers reported that from 1970 to 2000, the region they studied averaged about 21 quakes a year. That rose to about 29 a year for 2001 through 2008, they wrote, and the three following years produced totals of 50, 87 and 134, respectively.
The study results make sense and are likely due to man-made stress in the ground, said Rowena Lohman, a Cornell University geophysicist.
“The key thing to remember is magnitude 3s are really small,” Lohman said. “We’ve seen this sort of behavior in the western United States for a long time.”
Usually, it’s with geothermal energy, dams or prospecting. With magnitude 4 quakes, a person standing on top of them would at most feel like a sharp jolt, but mostly don’t last long enough to be a problem for buildings, she said.
The idea is to understand how the man-made activity triggers quakes, she said. One possibility is that the injected fluids change the friction and stickiness of minerals on fault lines. Another concept is that they change the below-surface pressure because the fluid is trapped and builds, and then “sets off something that’s about ready to go anyway,” Lohman said.
But another expert was not convinced of a link to oil and gas operations.
Austin Holland, the Oklahoma state seismologist, said the new work presents an “interesting hypothesis” but that the increase in earthquake rates could simply be the result of natural processes.
Holland said clusters of quakes can occur naturally, and that scientists do not yet fully understand the natural cycles of seismic activity in the central United States. Comprehensive earthquake records for the region go back only a few decades, he said, while natural cycles stretch for tens of thousands of years. So too little is known to rule out natural processes for causing the increase, he said

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/oil-gas-production-linked-spike-midwest-earthquakes-study-article-1.1057905#ixzz1rP2VMaOU

Herbicide Causes Shape Changes in Vertebrate Animals

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Herbicide Can Induce Morphological Changes in Vertebrate Animals: Tadpoles Change Shape

ScienceDaily (Apr. 2, 2012) — The world’s most popular weed killer, Roundup®, can cause amphibians to change shape, according to research recently published in Ecological Applications

Rick Relyea, University of Pittsburgh professor of biological sciences in the Kenneth P. Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences and director of Pitt’s Pymatuning Laboratory of Ecology, demonstrated that sublethal and environmentally relevant concentrations of Roundup® caused two species of amphibians to alter their morphology. According to Relyea, this is the first study to show that a herbicide can induce morphological changes in a vertebrate animal.

Relyea set up large outdoor water tanks that contained many of the components of natural wetlands. Some tanks contained caged predators, which emit chemicals that naturally induce changes in tadpole morphology (such as larger tails to better escape predators). After adding tadpoles to each tank, he exposed them to a range of Roundup® concentrations. After 3 weeks, the tadpoles were removed from the tanks.

“It was not surprising to see that the smell of predators in the water induced larger tadpole tails,” says Relyea. “That is a normal, adaptive response. What shocked us was that the Roundup® induced the same changes. Moreover, the combination of predators and Roundup® caused the tail changes to be twice as large.” Because tadpoles alter their body shape to match their environment, having a body shape that does not fit the environment can put the animals at a distinct disadvantage.

Predators cause tadpoles to change shape by altering the stress hormones of tadpoles, says Relyea. The similar shape changes when exposed to Roundup® suggest that Roundup® may interfere with the hormones of tadpoles and potentially many other animals.

“This discovery highlights the fact that pesticides, which are important for crop production and human health, can have unintended consequences for species that are not the pesticide’s target,” says Relyea. “Herbicides are not designed to affect animals, but we are learning that they can have a wide range of surprising effects by altering how hormones work in the bodies of animals. This is important because amphibians not only serve as a barometer of the ecosystem’s health, but also as an indicator of potential dangers to other species in the food chain, including humans.”

from:    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120402144938.htm

Guerrero, Mexico Strong Aftershock

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Very strong dangerous earthquake / aftershock in Guerrero, Mexico – severe shaking for 17,000 people

Last update: April 2, 2012 at 8:33 pm by By 

Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 6.3
UTC Time : Monday, April 02, 2012 at 17:36:43 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Monday, April 02, 2012 at 12:36:43 PM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 12 km
Geo-location(s) :
27 km (17 miles) SSE (148°) from Ometepec, Guerrero, Mexico

Update 20:28 UTC :  The authorities in Puebla, one of the major Mexican cities and approx. 250 km from the epicenter,  have reported NO injures or damage. Good news which we expected at this distance.
Earthquake-report.com calls an area with a radius of about 35 km around the epicenter at high risk for additional damage (to the already damaged houses during the March 20 mainshock).

Update 19:44 UTC :  USGS has increased his intensity mapping prediction. The new estimate mention 17,000 people having felt a severe MMI VIII shaking (damaging environment), 180,000 people a VII MMI very strong shaking.
The new values are bad news and will make this aftershock almost certain a damaging one.
Until now we have No details yet on damage and injuries. As said earlier it will take another 2 to 6 hours to have see first serious assessments of the epicenter area

Update 19:42 UTC :  Intensity report in the most important cities in the greater epicenter area :
VII    Cuajinicuilapa    9,000 people
VII    San Juan Cacahuatepec    4,000  people
VII    Ometepec    18,000  people
VII    San Pedro Amuzgos    4,000  people
VI    San Pedro Jicayan    4,000  people
VI    Santiago Pinotepa Nacional    26,000  people
MMI VII : very strong shaking
MMI VI : strong shaking

Update 19:16 UTC :  Mexican authorities are reporting the strongest shaking in the Costa Chica region. Until now, we have no reports of damage, but we are almost sure that they will appear in 4 to 8 hours.

Update 18:38 UTC :  Helicopters were dispatched 5 MINUTES after the earthquake. The only damage seen was a billboard that fall causing NO injuries. (we are confirming the very swift reaction of the authorities in DF)

Update :  The Mexican seismological agency has increased his initial Magnitude to 6.0. Since the mainshock today, 2 aftershocks of resp. 4.6 and 4.7 have been listed (normal)

Update :  Read also the many felt reports at the bottom of this page

Update 18:29 UTC :  Last time, damage was only reported after several hours or even a couple of days in the epicenter area (one of the poorest areas in Mexico). Most houses are made from brick or in adobe in the greater epicenter area.

Update:
– Security secretary of Mexico City reports that there is NO damage.
– Communications are still working.
– Subway is still working.
Such reports are mostly based on the capital Mexico City or DF.

Update :  Intermediate report from Carlos Robles : Servicio Sismologico Nacional is upgrading the earthquake to 6.0. Saldo blanco (no deaths) is reported. There aren’t reports of damage.

Update 18:23 UTC :  There are NO Nuclear plants or Hydrodams in the greater epicenter area

Update :  EMSC (Seismology Europe) reports now a magnitude of 6.1 at a depth of 10 km

Update 18:18 UTC :  NO tsunami danger as the epicenter of the earthquake is below the Mexican mainland

Update :  Evacuation were held at Mexico city.It was felt strong in some parts of Mexico city.In Coyoacan there are only reports of scared people. (source : Carlos Robles)

I Have Felt It map courtesy USGS – blue lighter, yellow strong shaking

Update : USGS predicts a very strong shaking for 3,000 people in the epicentral area. 164,000 people will have experienced a strong MMI VI shaking and 289,000 people a moderate shaking. As this earthquake is also felt in DF,  the earthquake will have been noticed by millions of people.

Update : As this is an aftershock from the March 20 M 7.4 earthquake,  these aftershocks, even at the current magnitude are very normal !

Update : The president of DF is flying by helicopter over DF areas to overview the situation. He reports that so far no serious damage can be seen from the air

Update : The Mexican media including the local seismological agency are not reachable because of too many connections

for more information and updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2012/04/02/very-strong-dangerous-earthquake-aftershock-in-guerrero-mexico/

Nevado fel Ruiz Volcano Nearing Eruption?

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Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia May Erupt in “Days to Weeks”

The small steam plume from Nevado del Ruiz, seen on March 27, 2012. Image from INGEOMINAS Colombia.

Some news brought to my attention by Eruptions reader Sherine merited a quick Saturday post. Thedeveloping volcanic crisis at Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia looks like it is continuing to escalate. INGEOMINAS, the Colombian geological survey, released a “special bulletin” this afternoon elevating the alert status at Nevado del Ruiz to Orange Level (II). This means that the signs of activity at the volcano suggest that an eruption is likely in the days to weeks timescale. Marta Calvache from INGEOMINASmentioed that over the past few days the volcano has experienced tremor related to “fluid motion” (likely magma), rock fracture earthquakes at the summit have been increasing in pulses and sulfur dioxide emissions continue to be high.

 

So far, INGEOMINAS thinks any potentially eruption will be smaller than the activity seen during Ruiz’slast eruptive period between 1985-1989. The major hazard from Ruiz is the lahars that can be generatedas ash and other volcanic material mix with melted snow and ice at the summit. There is also the potential for ash fall (especially hazardous for those with respiratory problems) on towns and cities in the area, including Manizalez and Pereira, both of which are less than 50 km from the volcano, and Bogotá, only ~120 km from Ruiz. If you live in the area around Ruiz, be sure to examine the INGEOMINAS volcanic hazard map to see the places with the highest probability of lahars and pyroclastic flows. Taking a look at the INGEOMINAS Azufrado webcam for Ruiz, a plume can be seen coming from the summit area (see below) while the webicorder shows the increasing seismicity as well. You can also get a glimpse of the volcano from an INGEOMINAS webcam in Manizalez.

Webcam capture from March 31, 2012 showing a small plume from Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia.

from:    http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/03/nevado-del-ruiz-in-colombia-may-erupt-in-days-to-weeks/

 

Your Brain and Light

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How to Use Light to Control the Brain

Stephen Dougherty, Scientific American
Date: 01 April 2012 Time: 09:38 AM ET

 

Scientists can use light to switch on a neuron.
Scientists can use light to switch on a neuron.
CREDIT: iDesign, Shutterstock

In the film Amèlie, the main character is a young eccentric woman who attempts to change the lives of those around her for the better. One day Amèlie finds an old rusty tin box of childhood mementos in her apartment, hidden by a boy decades earlier. After tracking down Bretodeau, the owner, she lures him to a phone booth where he discovers the box. Upon opening the box and seeing a few marbles, a sudden flash of vivid images come flooding into his mind. Next thing you know, Bretodeau is transported to a time when he was in the schoolyard scrambling to stuff his pockets with hundreds of marbles while a teacher is yelling at him to hurry up.

We have all experienced this: a seemingly insignificant trigger, a scent, a song, or an old photograph transports us to another time and place. Now a group of neuroscientists have investigated the fascinating question: Can a few neurons trigger a full memory?
In a new study, published in Nature, a group of researchers from MIT showed for the first time that it is possible to activate a memory on demand, by stimulating only a few neurons with light, using a technique known as optogenetics. Optogenetics is a powerful technology that enables researchers to control genetically modified neurons with a brief pulse of light.

To artificially turn on a memory, researchers first set out to identify the neurons that are activated when a mouse is making a new memory. To accomplish this, they focused on a part of the brain called the hippocampus, known for its role in learning and memory, especially for discriminating places. Then they inserted a gene that codes for a light-sensitive protein into hippocampal neurons, enabling them to use light to control the neurons.

With the light-sensitive proteins in place, the researchers gave the mouse a new memory. They put the animal in an environment where it received a mild foot shock, eliciting the normal fear behavior in mice: freezing in place. The mouse learned to associate a particular environment with the shock.

Next, the researchers attempted to answer the big question: Could they artificially activate the fear memory? They directed light on the hippocampus, activating a portion of the neurons involved in the memory, and the animals showed a clear freezing response. Stimulating the neurons appears to have triggered the entire memory.

The researchers performed several key tests to confirm that it was really the original memory recalled. They tested mice with the same light-sensitive protein but without the shock; they tested mice without the light-sensitive protein; and they tested mice in a different environment not associated with fear. None of these tests yielded the freezing response, reinforcing the conclusion that the pulse of light indeed activated the old fear memory.

In 2010, optogenetics was named the scientific Method of the Year by the journal Nature Methods. The technology was introduced in 2004 by a research group at Stanford University led by Karl Deisseroth, a collaborator on this research. The critical advantage that optogenetics provides over traditional neuroscience techniques, like electrical stimulation or chemical agents, is speed and precision. Electrical stimulation and chemicals can only be used to alter neural activity in nonspecific ways and without precise timing. Light stimulation enables control over a small subset of neurons on a millisecond time scale.

Over the last several years, optogenetics has provided powerful insights into the neural underpinnings of brain disorders like depression, Parkinson’s disease, anxiety, and schizophrenia. Now, in the context of memory research, this study shows that it is possible to artificially stimulate a few neurons to activate an old memory, controlling an animals’ behavior without any sensory input. This is significant because it provides a new approach to understand how complex memories are formed in the first place.

Lest ye worry about implanted memories and mind control, this technology is still a long way from reaching any human brains. Nevertheless, the first small steps towards the clinical application of optogenetics have already begun. A group at Brown University, for example, is working on a wireless optical electrode that can deliver light to neurons in the human brain. Who knows, someday, instead of new technology enabling us to erase memories á la Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, we may actually undergo memory enhancement therapy with a brief session under the lights.

This article was first published on Scientific American. © 2012 ScientificAmerican.com. All rights reserved. Follow Scientific American on Twitter @SciAm and @SciamBlogs. VisitScientificAmerican.com for the latest in science, health and technology news.   

frohttp://www.livescience.com/19413-mind-control-light.html:

Iwaki Japan Earthquake

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Strong earthquake in Iwaki, Japan

M 5.9      2012/04/01 14:04    Depth 50.0 km     JAPAN – Fukushima-ken Oki
JMA intensity max. 5- (earthquake-report.com considers 5+ as possibly damaging)
The intermediate depth of the epicenter was luckily weakening the impact
Magnitude data provided by JMA Japan
– Epicenter only 9 km (6 miles) NE (53°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
– JMA 5- in Naraha-machi Kitada and Tomioka-machiMoto-oka
– JMA 4 in Koriyama-shi Kaisei*, Shirakawa-shi Shin-shirakawa*, Shirakawa-shi Higashi*, Shirakawa-shi Omotego*, Sukagawa-shi Iwase-shisho*,Nihommatsu-shi Yui*, Nihommatsu-shi Harimichi*, Kawamata-machi Gohyakuta*, Ten-ei-mura Shimomatsumoto*, Nakajima-mura Nametsu*, Ishikawa-machi , Shimoizumi*, Tamakawa-mura Otaka*, Hirata-mura Nagata*, Asakawa-machi Asakawa*, Furudono-machi Matsukawa*, Ono-machi Ono-niimachi*, Tamura-shi Funehikimachi, Tamura-shi Ogoemachi*, Tamura-shi Tokiwamachi*, Tamura-shi Miyakojimachi*, Tamura-shi Takinemachi*, Iwaki-shi Onahama, Iwaki-shi Taira-yotsunami*, Iwaki-shi Nishikimachi*, Iwaki-shi Taira-umemoto*, Soma-shi Nakamura*, Fukushima Hirono-machi Shimokitaba-oyachihara*, Fukushima Hirono-machi Shimokitaba-nawashirogae*, Kawauchi-mura Shimokawauchi, Kawauchi-mura Kamikawauchi-koyamadaira*, Kawauchi-mura Kamikawauchi-hayawata*, Katsurao-mura Ochiai-ochiai*, Shinchi-machi Yachigoya*, Iitate-mura Itamizawa*, Minami-soma-shi Haramachiku-takamicho *
– The earthquake occurred at 23:04 (11:04 PM) local time
– The earthquake was very well felt in Tokyo, although Tokyo was at a distance of 196 km from the epicenter
– The epicenter was following local JMA Japan a little in the Ocean, what surely has weakened the impact.
NO tsunami risk
– The damaged nuclear power plant of Fukushima has been hit by JMA 4 shaking (MMI V to VI), which is reasonable and should not lead to further damage

http://earthquake-report.com/2012/03/31/major-earthquakes-list-april-1-2012/