Earthquake Predictions 10/26-11/11 fr/Dr. RJ Roberts

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Table 48a. Regional forecasts for New Moon Period

 from October 26-November 9* 2011 (UTC)

REGIONS
USA/Canadian regions listed first, by latitude, then other regions in
alphabetical order

Forecast
Magnitude
Ranges
& Dates (UTC)

Observed
Maximum
Magnitude
in each region

Accuracy compared to mid range (%)

Observed
Date (UTC) &     Location
Alaska USA
Southern Region
within ≈600 km of a newcenter at Lat 59.6 and Lon -148.9, about 185 km S of Anchorage.		 M3.3-M5.3 
expected about Oct 28+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Vancouver Is. and Seattle Regions CANADA/USA
New zone
within ≈525 km radius ofTofino, B.C. at Lat 49.159 and Lon -125.874		 M2.6-M4.6 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
California –Oregon USABorder Region
New zone
Coast & Off Coast
within ≈550 km of a center
at Lat 41.29 Lon -125.95
160 km west of Orick, CA		 M3.1-M5.1 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		    
California  1.
New zone‘Northern and Central CA’
(& Western Nevada)
within ≈450 km radius ofRedwood Valley, CAat Lat 39.265 and Lon -123.204. Includes events off the coast near Eureka, CA, in the Triple Junction Region.
**see table footnote		 M2.7-M4.7 
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
California  2.
Central, Southern, & Baja California Regions
New zone
Within ≈400 km of Beaumont, CA, at Lat 33.930 and Lon -116.978
**see table footnote		 M2.8-M4.8 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
New Madrid Region
Central USA
New zone
Within ≈550 km of a center at Springfield, Missouri,
Lat 37.214 Lon -93.293 Extends to Central Oklahoma		 M2.0-M4.0 
expected about Nov 4+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Hawaii USA
Within 500 km of a center at Lat 19.62 Lon -155.5
on the Island of Hawaii		 M2.4-M4.4 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

      
Caribbean  1.
Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands Region
within ≈225 km of Fajardo, Puerto Rico, at Lat 18.326 & Lon -65.652,		 M2.6-M4.6 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Caribbean  2.
Haiti & Dominican Republic,SE Cuba & Jamaica Region
within ≈600 km of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, at Lat 18.54  & Lon -72.334		 M3.4-M5.4 
expected about Nov 1st+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		    
Bucharest
Romania Region
New zone, Europe 
within ≈250 km of Bucharest at Lat 44.44 & Lon 26.093. Includes part of Northern Bulgaria.		 M2.8-M4.8 
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Chile         1. 
Northern Region
within≈600 km of a center point 37 km NNE of ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
at Lat -23.34 Lon -70.29
(zone revised 3rd July 2011)		 M3.8-M5.8 
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		    
Chile         2.Central Region
within 500 km of Santa Cruz, Central Chile, at Lat -34.63 Lon -71.359 
 M4.1-M6.1 
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
China*
Within 650 km of Liangshan, Sichuan
at Lat 27.880 Lon 102.264
*Forecasts for China will be for the largest quake expected in the FULL lunar month
(FM + NM periods).
More exact timing cannot be forecast because of inadequate amounts of data readily available from China		 No forecast       
Colombia Region
within 600 km of ARUSI, Colombia, Lat 5.583 Lon  -77.484, on the coast
Extends from Panama City region to Western Venezuela		 M3.6-M5.6 
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Fiji-Tonga
Region
within ≈500 km of
a center point at
Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4		 M4.3-M6.3 
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Greece
New zone
within 300 km of a center point at ITEA, Greece (Lat 38.435 & Lon 22.422)		 M3.3-M5.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
    
Guatemala
Coastal Region
within ≈300 km of a center point at Lat 14.07 Lon -91.92 offshore Guatemala, extending NW to southern Chiapas, Mex., & SE to El Salvador.		 M3.3-M5.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      

 
El Salvador -Costa Rica Region
includes southeast Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica
within ≈500 km of a center point at La Trinidad, Nicaragua
(Lat 12.566 Lon -86.178)
Zone revised 19th April.		 M4.2-M6.2
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
Indonesia  1.Sumatra
Northern Region 
within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67		 M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 5+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		    
Indonesia  2.Sumatra 
Southern Region
within ≈350 km of Bengkulu Utara, Southern Sumatra, centered at Lat -2.67 and Lon 101.34 (revised region on 18th April, at 1205 hrs)		 M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		    
Indonesia  3.Sunda StraitSouthern Sumatra to Java Region 
includes very southern Sumatra & Western Java,
within ≈450 km from
a center in Sunda Strait
at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762		 M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Italy Region
within ≈500 km of a center in the Tyrrhenian Sea at Lat 40.28 Lon 11.88
(now excluding Alpine Northern Italy and Bosnia/ Montenegro Regions across the Adriatic Sea)		 M3.1-M5.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Japan        1.
Hokkaido Region
& Northernmost Honshu Region 
within ≈500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62   **see table footnote		 M4.6-M6.6
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		    
Japan        2.
Honshu – Northern Region
within ≈500 km of the M9.0 epicenter off East Coast of Honshu
at Lat 38.322 Lon 142.369**see table footnote		 M4.1-M6.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Japan        3.Honshu – Southern Region
within ≈500 km of center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040**see table footnote		 M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

 

      
Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China)
New zone
within ≈550 km of a NEW CENTRE near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Tajikistan, 66 km W of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China
at Lat 40.58 Lon 77.286		 M4.7-M6.7
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
Mexico
Southern Region
within ≈575 km of Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico, at Lat 17.280 Lon -97.671 		M4.0-M6.0
expected about Oct 31+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
New Britain Region, PNG
within 400 km of a center
at KImbe, NB, at Lat -5.548 Lon 150.140		 M4.1-M6.1
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)

 

      
New Zealand
“Northern Region”
within ≈400 km of Taupo, North Island, New Zealand Lat -38.687 Lon 176.07,
including Nelson region and North tip of South Island
**see table footnote		 M3.9-M5.9
expected about Oct 30+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
New Zealand
Southern Region
within 500 km from
Christchurch, South Island
Lat -43.527, Lon 172.622
**see table footnote		 M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
New Zealand
Lower South Island
New zone
within ≈450 km of Queenstown at Lat -45.030 and Lon 168.66
**see table footnote		 M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Pakistan
Islamabad Regionwithin ≈425 km of
Islamabad, Pakistan
(Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07)
(includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)		 M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 3+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
      
Peru Region
North to South
within ≈1000 km of LIMA center, Lat -12.045 and
Lon -77.028		 M3.7-M5.7
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Philippines Region
Philippines Region
within ≈600 km
of a center point at LABO,
Lat 14.15 Lon 122.673		 M4.0-M6.0
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Samoa/Tonga
within ≈350 km of a center point at Lat -15.125 Lon -172.617
 M4.3-M6.3
expected about Oct 31+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Solomon Is’-
Bougainville Region
within ≈600 km of center
at Lat -8.41 Lon 158.66		 M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Spain and Portugal –
Southern Regions
Plus Strait of Gibraltar and Northern Morocco 
within 450 km of a center NNE of Córdoba, Spain, at Lat 38.662 Lon -4.567		 M2.6-M4.6
expected about Oct 30+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct) 
      
Taiwan Region
within 225 km of M7.7 center (1999) at Lat 23.77 and Lon 120.98		 M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		      
Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Region

includes cities like Kathmandu, New Delhi, and Islamabad
New zone
within ≈900 km of a Tibetan center located
at Lat 32.28 Lon 81.98

 M3.8-M5.8
expected about Oct 29+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)
Turkey
within ≈425 km of a center at INSTANBUL, Turkey, at
Lat 41.005 Lon 28.976
(region includes most of Western & Central Turkey, plus regions of Aegean and Black Seas)		 M2.8-M4.8
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)		    
Vanuatu
New zone
within ≈350 km from a center at Lat -19.182 and Lon 168.270, 160 km S of PORT-VILA, Vanuatu		 M4.7-M6.7
expected about Nov 6+/-3 days
(posted 0425 hours 19th Oct)