Monthly Archives: September 2011

Four New CME’s

Posted on by

FOUR CMEs: On Sept. 19th, the STEREO-SOHO fleet of spacecraft surrounding the sun detected six coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Two of the clouds rapidly dissipated. The remaining four, however, are still intact and billowing through the inner solar system. Click to view a movie of their forecasted paths:

According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the movie, one CME should hit Mercury on Sept. 20th at 05:40 UT while another delivers a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 22th at 23:00 UT. All impact times have an uncertainty of plus or minus 7 hrs.

from sapceweather.com

Dogs Doin’ The “SHAKE”

Posted on by

Sit. Shake a Paw. Now Just Shake.

By KERRI MACDONALD

Before she begins a photo shoot, the fine-art photographer Carli Davidson spends time getting to know her models.

“I have my dialogue,” said Ms. Davidson, 30. “I want to talk to them before I get a portrait so I get a sense of the person.”

Ms. Davidson spends very little time working with models of the “person” variety these days. The subjects of her ongoing project “Shake” are not perfect. They’re not entirely graceful. They tend to drool.

Since photographer and subject can’t necessarily converse with one another, Ms. Davidson plays with each one before its 15 minutes of fame. The shake, when it comes, is usually provoked by a squirt of water.

It doesn’t always work. Models can, after all, be divas. “It’s not something that you have a lot of control over,” Ms. Davidson acknowledged with a laugh.

Ms. Davidson grew up in New York. Two of her early jobs — working on a nature preserve and later as a photo assistant — have converged in her career. She majored in sociology at Evergreen State College in Olympia, Wash., and interned at the Oregon Zoo in Portland, where she was hired to work with the zoo’s birds of prey.

But when she was injured in a car accident a couple of years ago, Ms. Davidson began making photos for the zoo, instead.

“Shake” is in its early stages. The series is an offshoot of a book project onpets with disabilities. While working on that, Ms. Davidson tested some new high-speed mono lights on a round-faced Bordeaux. “I uploaded the photos and I was cracking up,” she said.

DESCRIPTIONCarli Davidson

It would be remiss not to mention the project’s ugly duckling, a 3-week-old kitten that had yet to perfect the “shake” motion. But at this point, the work is fairly dog-centric. Ms. Davidson has 10 canine subjects lined up over the next month and a half. Among them: a corded poodle — pleasantly dreadlocked — and a bug-eyed pug, “just one of the most hideously adorable dogs,” she said.

from:    http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/sit-shake-a-paw-now-just-shake/?hp

Strong Earthquake in Guatemala

Posted on by

Strong dangerous earthquake in Guatemala – 3 people killed, many injured + a lot of damage

Last update: September 20, 2011 at 1:38 pm by By 

Article also written by Szombath Balazs
Earthquake overview :  Strong 5.8 earthquake hit Guatemala  September 19, 2011 at 12:34:00 PM local time. In only a half hour before a 4.8 earthquake struck the same region.

 

​SUMMARY 04:03 UTC:

At least 3 people have died (1 by a collapsing wall, and 2 by a landslide) when a shallow 5.8 magnitude earthquake struck Guatemala.

There are many injured and traumatised people as a result of this event.

At least 400 homes have been damaged in the Cuilapa area, and these homes have been evacuated.

UPDATE 23:50 UTC: Local sources are mentioning 1 killed person, 3 missing people and a lot of injured. Rescue services are continuing their struggle to find survivors. A total of 5 aftershocks have been reported. None of the aftershocks had a magnitude above 5. Most of the damage has been inflicted in the Cuilapa Santa Rosa area.

to read more and for updates, go to:    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/19/strong-dangerous-earthquake-in-guatemala/

Story Time: Melville’s Bartleby

Posted on by

Herman Melville (1819–1891).  Bartleby, the Scrivener.  1853.
Bartleby, the Scrivener: A Story of Wall-street

I AM a rather elderly man. The nature of my avocations for the last thirty years has brought me into more than ordinary contact with what would seem an interesting and somewhat singular set of men, of whom as yet nothing that I know of has ever been written:—I mean the law-copyists or scriveners. I have known very many of them, professionally and privately, and if I pleased, could relate divers histories, at which good-natured gentlemen might smile, and sentimental souls might weep. But I waive the biographies of all other scriveners for a few passages in the life of Bartleby, who was a scrivener the strangest I ever saw or heard of. While of other law-copyists I might write the complete life, of Bartleby nothing of that sort can be done. I believe that no materials exist for a full and satisfactory biography of this man. It is an irreparable loss to literature. Bartleby was one of those beings of whom nothing is ascertainable, except from the original sources, and in his case those are very small. What my own astonished eyes saw of Bartleby, that is all I know of him, except, indeed, one vague report which will appear in the sequel.    1
  Ere introducing the scrivener, as he first appeared to me, it is fit I make some mention of myself, my employées, my business, my chambers, and general surroundings; because some such description is indispensable to an adequate understanding of the chief character about to be presented.    2
  Imprimis: I am a man who, from his youth upwards, has been filled with a profound conviction that the easiest way of life is the best. Hence, though I belong to a profession proverbially energetic and nervous, even to turbulence, at times, yet nothing of that sort have I ever suffered to invade my peace. I am one of those unambitious lawyers who never addresses a jury, or in any way draws down public applause; but in the cool tranquillity of a snug retreat, do a snug business among rich men’s bonds and mortgages and title-deeds. All who know me consider me an eminently safe man. The late John Jacob Astor, a personage little given to poetic enthusiasm, had no hesitation in pronouncing my first grand point to be prudence; my next, method. I do not speak it in vanity, but simply record the fact, that I was not unemployed in my profession by the late John Jacob Astor; a name which, I admit, I love to repeat, for it hath a rounded and orbicular sound to it, and rings like unto bullion. I will freely add, that I was not insensible to the late John Jacob Astor’s good opinion.    3
  Some time prior to the period at which this little history begins, my avocations had been largely increased. The good old office, now extinct in the State of New-York, of a Master in Chancery, had been conferred upon me. It was not a very arduous office, but very pleasantly remunerative. I seldom lose my temper; much more seldom indulge in dangerous indignation at wrongs and outrages; but I must be permitted to be rash here and declare, that I consider the sudden and violent abrogation of the office of Master of Chancery, by the new Constitution, as a —— premature act; inasmuch as I had counted upon a life-lease of the profits, whereas I only received those of a few short years. But this is by the way.    4
  My chambers were up stairs at No. — Wall-street. At one end they looked upon the white wall of the interior of a spacious sky-light shaft, penetrating the building from top to bottom. This view might have been considered rather tame than otherwise, deficient in what landscape painters call “life.” But if so, the view from the other end of my chambers offered, at least, a contrast, if nothing more. In that direction my windows commanded an unobstructed view of a lofty brick wall, black by age and everlasting shade; which wall required no spy-glass to bring out its lurking beauties, but for the benefit of all near-sighted spectators, was pushed up to within ten feet of my window panes. Owing to the great height of the surrounding buildings, and my chambers being on the second floor, the interval between this wall and mine not a little resembled a huge square cistern.    5
  At the period just preceding the advent of Bartleby, I had two persons as copyists in my employment, and a promising lad as an office-boy. First, Turkey; second, Nippers; third, Ginger Nut. These may seem names, the like of which are not usually found in the Directory. In truth they were nicknames, mutually conferred upon each other by my three clerks, and were deemed expressive of their respective persons or characters.
   7
 …….
  14
 Now my original business—that of a conveyancer and title hunter, and drawer-up of recondite documents of all sorts—was considerably increased by receiving the master’s office. There was now great work for scriveners. Not only must I push the clerks already with me, but I must have additional help. In answer to my advertisement, a motionless young man one morning, stood upon my office threshold, the door being open, for it was summer. I can see that figure now—pallidly neat, pitiably respectable, incurably forlorn! It was Bartleby.to read the rest, go to:    http://www.bartleby.com/129/

Dr. Jeff Masters Forecast for Rest of Hurricane Season

Posted on by
Invest 98L spinning up; outlook for remainder of hurricane season
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:09 PM GMT on September 19, 2011 +6
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) continues to look well-organized on satellite imagery, with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin. An ASCAT pass from 8:08 pm EDT last night showed 98L was close to closing off a well-defined surface circulation. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, less than 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Friday. Ocean temperatures are 28 – 28.5°C, well above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 98L is embedded in a moist environment, but there is dry air to the system’s northwest. However, given the light wind shear, this dry air may not pose a hindrance to development at this time. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a pattern favorable for development, with an outflow channel open to both the north and south available to ventilate the storm and allow 98L to efficiently lift plenty of moisture to high levels.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.

The models are not very aggressive about developing 98L into a tropical depression, but most of them do show some weak development. NHC gave the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. Given the recent increase in spin on visible satellite images and favorable environment for development, I’d bump these odds up to 70%. 98L is currently moving little, but is expected to begin a westward motion at 10 mph today. This motion would take 98L into the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday or Saturday. The northern Lesser Antilles would be most likely to see the core of the storm, as has been the case for all of this year’s disturbances. However, a more southerly path across Barbados, as predicted by the GFS model, cannot be ruled out. Once 98L does reach the Lesser Antilles, all of the models indicate the storm will see a sharp increase in vertical wind shear due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. This shear should make it difficult for 98L to intensify as it moves though the islands.

Atlantic hurricane outlook for the rest of September
Ocean temperatures are starting to decline in the North Atlantic, though remain much above average in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10°N and 20°N latitude. The latest departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average plot (Figure 2) shows a large area of ocean temperatures near 1°C above average. The water temperatures were 0.8°C above average in this region during August, which is the 4th highest such reading on record. These warm waters will allow for an above-average chance of African tropical waves developing through early October. By early October, the African Monsoon typically begins to wane, spawning fewer tropical waves that tend to be weaker, and we should stop seeing development of newly-emerged tropical waves off the coast of Africa.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for September 19, 2011. Ocean temperatures were about 1°C above average over much of the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10°N and 20°N latitude. In the Pacific off the coast of South America, we can see the tell-tale signature of a La Niña event, with cooler than average waters along the Equator. Also note the cooler than average waters between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, due to the passage of Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Katia. Image credit:NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear has been near average over the tropical Atlantic this hurricane season, and is currently at its climatological low point, which occurs in mid-September. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model shows wind shear will remain at the sort of typical low levels we usually see this time of year. With ocean temperatures at near-record warm levels, this combination would tend to favor formation of at least two tropical storms between now and the beginning of October. One inhibiting factor, though, may be the continued presence of dry, stable air over the tropical Atlantic. Hurricanes like to have an unstable atmosphere, with moist, warm air near the surface, and cold, dryer air aloft. This situation helps the updrafts in the storm grow stronger. This year, we’ve had unusually stable air (Figure 3.) This has really put the brakes on intensification of most of the tropical storms that have formed. The current ratio of 14 named storms but only 3 hurricanes is unprecedented in the historical record, going back to 1851. Usually, just over half of all Atlantic tropical storms intensify into hurricanes. One other factor to consider, the 30-60 day pattern of increased thunderstorm activity known as the Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO), looks like it will have little influence over the coming week. The MJO has been weak all month, and is predicted to stay weak for the remainder of this week.


Figure 3. Vertical instability, as measured by the difference in temperature near the surface to the bottom of the stratosphere. The atmosphere in the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands (right) has been much more stable than average this year (average is the thick black line). Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

Forecast of the rest of hurricane season
We are past the half-way point of the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks on September 10. On average, about 60% of the activity has occurred by this point in the season. Since we’ve already had 14 named storms and 3 hurricanes, at the current rate, we would expect to see another 8 or 9 named storms, with 1 or 2 of them reaching hurricane strength. It’s pretty tough to maintain the sort of activity levels we’ve seen so far this year, so I am forecasting we’ll see 7 more named storms during the remainder of this season, taking us all the way to “W” in the alphabet. With the unusually stable air over the Atlantic showing no signs of abating, I predict that we’ll see just 2 of these storms reach hurricane strength. As far as steering currents go, the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model doesn’t show any significant changes to the jet stream pattern we’ve seen all summer. There will continue to be a parade of troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast that will tend to curve any storms northwards and then northeastwards out to sea, once they penetrate north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This pattern favors strikes on North Carolina and New England, and discourages strikes on Texas. I doubt Texas will see a tropical storm this year given this steering pattern, and considering that Texas’ tropical cyclone season tends to peak in late August and early September. It is quite unusual for Texas to have a tropical storm or hurricane this late in the season, so they will probably have to look elsewhere for drought-busting rains.

Jeff Masters

Tectonic Explanation of Sikkim Quake

Posted on by

 

 

 

 

Understanding the very strong damaging Nepal/Sikkim earthquake (18/09/2011)

 

Last update: September 19, 2011 at 12:29 pm by By 

Tectonic explanation of what happened

The September 18, 2011 Sikkim, India earthquake occurred near the boundary between the India and Eurasia plates, in the mountainous region of northeast India near the Nepalese border.
Initial analysis suggest the earthquake was complex, likely a result of two events occurring close together in time at depths of approximately 20 km beneath the Earth’s surface.

At the latitude of the September 18 earthquake, the India plate converges with Eurasia at a rate of approximately 46 mm/yr towards the north-northeast. The broad convergence between these two plates has resulted in the uplift of the Himalayas, the world’s tallest mountain range. The preliminary focal mechanism of the earthquake suggests strike slip faulting, and thus an intraplate source within the upper Eurasian plate or the underlying India plate, rather than occurring on the thrust interface plate boundary between the two.

This region has experienced relatively moderate seismicity in the past, with 18 earthquakes of M 5 or greater over the past 35 years within 100 km of the epicenter of the September 18 event.
The largest of these was a M 6.1 earthquake in November of 1980, 75 km to the southeast.

Text and images : courtesy USGS

for more, go to:   http://earthquake-report.com/2011/09/18/understanding-the-very-strong-destructive-sikkim-earthquake-18092011/

Artificial Blood Vessels from 3D Printer

Posted on by

6 September 2011 Last updated at 06:49 ET

Artificial blood vessels created on a 3D printer

Katia MoskvitchBy Katia MoskvitchTechnology reporter, BBC News

Artificial polymer vesselArtificial blood vessels could help those in urgent need of an organ transplant

Artificial blood vessels made on a 3D printer may soon be used for transplants of lab-created organs.

Until now, the stumbling block in tissue engineering has been supplying artificial tissue with nutrients that have to arrive via capillary vessels.

A team at the Fraunhofer Institute in Germany has solved that problem using 3D printing and a technique called multiphoton polymerisation.

The findings will be shown at the Biotechnica Fair in Germany in October.

Out of thousands of patients in desperate need of an organ transplant there are inevitably some who do not get it in time.

In Germany, for instance, more than 11,000 people have been put on an organ transplant waiting list in 2011 alone.

To make sure more patients receive these life-saving surgeries, researchers in tissue engineering all over the globe have been working on creating artificial tissue and even entire organs in the lab.

But for a lab-made organ to function, it needs to be equipped with artificial blood vessels – tiny and extremely complex tubes that our organs naturally possess, used to carry nutrients.

CNumerous attempts have been made to create synthetic capillaries, and the latest one by the German team seems to be especially promising.

Significant Damage in Wake of India Quake

Posted on by

19 September 2011 Last updated at 09:25 ET

Race to rescue quake victims in India, Nepal and Tibet

Aftermath of the earthquake that hit the India-Nepal border

Rescue efforts are under way across isolated Himalayan regions in India, Nepal and Tibet after a magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck the area on Sunday.

The epicentre was the northern Indian state of Sikkim, where the Indian government says that at least 35 people have been killed.

But the relief effort there has been hampered by rainfall and landslides. It is feared that the toll could rise.

Several earthquakes hit the region this year, but none caused major damage.

‘People are panicky’

In Sikkim many buildings are reported to have collapsed while power supplies in many areas have been cut off.

Thick cloud and heavy rain is making it difficult for rescuers.

Indian military helicopters have been unable to take off and aid workers are stranded trying to reach the affected areas. Roads have been destroyed making it difficult to get to mountainous regions.

Continue reading the main story

SIKKIM: INDIA’S SECLUDED STATE

  • Became part of India in 1975
  • Has a population of 500,000 people
  • Renowned for its spectacular mountains and lakes
  • Economy largely dependent on tourism

Officials say that thousands of soldiers helping the relief effort may not reach many areas until Tuesday because the high mountain passes are blocked.

“The situation doesn’t look good,” an official from the UN’s disaster management team in Delhi told the Reuters news agency. “My feeling is the death toll and number of injured are going to increase.”

A resident in Gangtok, capital of Sikkim, told the BBC over the telephone that there was panic in the immediate aftermath of the quake and that several buildings were either cracked or tilting to one side. Thousands of people spent the night outside their homes.

A British tourist in the city also spoke to the BBC and said that the quake was so violent that it knocked him over on the third floor of the hotel where he was staying.

It has been raining for four days without respite in parts of Sikkim and shops, businesses and offices in Gangtok are closed. Telephone communications to the affected areas is patchy.

Bhim Dahal, press advisor to Sikkim’s chief minister, told the BBC that more than 150 have been injured and the main highway to the north of the state has been blocked.

However officials say that roads connecting the state to the rest of India – through the state of West Bengal – have now re-opened.

Mr Dahal said that the state government building and the police headquarters in Gangtok have been badly damaged and 1,000 houses have collapsed – with 100,000 damaged – across the state.

Significant damage

Tremors were felt in the north-eastern Indian states of Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura. They were also felt in regions of India: West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chandigarh and Delhi. Bangladesh and Bhutan also felt the quake.

map

One person was killed during a stampede as people panicked in a town in the eastern state of Bihar, and other deaths were reported near Darjeeling, in West Bengal.

Latest reports from Nepal say that at least six people have been killed with more than 100 injured. Officials say that significant structural damage has been caused to buildings in the east of the country.

In addition a landslide triggered by the quake has blocked transport along the highway which links the city of Dharan to the town of Dhankuta. Dharan was hit by a devastating quake 28 years ago.

In the capital Kathmandu, three people were killed when a wall at the British embassy collapsed. A budget debate in the country’s parliament was suspended for 15 minutes when lawmakers fled the chamber as the entire building shook.

for more on this, go to:    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14967812

Hurricane Season Update

Posted on by

Hurricane Season Hits Pause, But Isn’t Over

by Brett Israel
Date: 16 September 2011 Time: 04:05 PM ET
hurricane maria hits newfoundland

 
Hurricane Maria heads toward Newfoundland today, but there are no storms behind it….for now.
CREDIT: NOAA/NASA GOES-13 satellite.

Mid-August marked an uptick in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with one storm always seeming to follow on the heels of another. But lately, the tropics have quieted down.

Hurricane Maria, the third hurricane of the 2011 season, is expected to hit Newfoundland, Canada, today (Sept. 16), but there are no other tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms) after this one the radar. But don’t think for a second that hurricane season is headed for an early exit, experts say.

“In no way, shape or form is this season over,” said Dennis Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

If, for some odd reason, no other tropical storms were to form this year, it would be the earliest end ever for an Atlantic hurricane season. The earliest date in the satellite era of the last active tropical cyclone in a given year was Sept. 21, 1993. Hurricane season officially ends Nov.1.

Feltgen and others say we’re not likely to set a new record this year.

“I would be incredibly surprised if Maria was the last tropical cyclone in the Atlantic,” said Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. “While it looks like we’re going into a somewhat quieter period for a little bit, it’s not that unusual to have a quiet period during an active season,” Klotzbach said.

This season was predicted to be a doozy, with 14 to 19 named storms (which include tropical storms and hurricanes), seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). So far there have been 14 named storms (Nate formed shortly after Maria, but dissipated after striking Mexico shortly after it developed), three hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Irene and Katia).

The tropics seem to have quieted down as storms shift their birthplace to the west in the Atlantic basin. At the beginning of the season, tropical cyclones form near Cape Verde, off the coast of Western Africa. Toward the end of the season, they begin closer to the West Caribbean. This puts the southeastern United Sates in the crosshairs. October is typically an active month for that region.

Most of the global models suggest that another storm should develop in about nine days, Klotzbach said. And with the warm Atlantic waters and La Niña’s return — which has been linked to active hurricane seasons — more big storms could be on the way.

from:   http://www.livescience.com/16104-hurricane-season-lull.html

“It’s nice we got a little chance to breathe and collect our thoughts, but we are far from over,” Feltgen said.