MERCURY-DIRECTED CME: On Sept 8th around 2300 UT, the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft detected a significant CME emerging from the farside of the sun. Earth is not in the line of fire, but the planet Mercury is. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate that the cloud will reach the innermost planet on Sept. 9th at 12:00 UT (plus minus 7 hours). Click to view a movie of their CME model:
NASA’s MESSENGER spacecraft is in orbit around Mercury, so it will have a front row seat for the impact. Researchers are keen to learn how Mercury’s magnetosphere responds to CMEs. In particular, they wonder if CMEs can overpower Mercury’s magnetic field and sputter atoms right off the planet’s surface. Thanks to the Goddard forecast, MESSENGER’s controllers know the CME is coming, and they can prepare to observe the impact.
Interplanetary space weather forecasting is a new thing. It became possible in 2010-2011 when NASA and ESA spacecraft surrounded the sun. Working together, SOHO, the Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO-A and STEREO-B now have the entire star under surveillance. CMEs can be tracked no matter where they go, which means space weather isn’t just for Earth anymore.
The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is a cooperative project between the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program and the US Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program.
Updated every Week (mostly Wednesday), notices of volcanic activity posted on these pages are preliminary and subject to change as events are studied in more detail. This is not a comprehensive list of all of Earth’s volcanoes erupting during the week, but rather a summary of activity of volcanoes that meet criteria discussed in detail in the “Criteria and Disclaimers” section. Carefully reviewed, detailed reports on various volcanoes are published monthly in the Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network.
New Activity, Unrest or activity change
CLEVELAND Chuginadak Island – satellite map – summit elev. 1730 m On 30 August, AVO reported that satellite observations during the previous two weeks indicated that lava-dome growth at Cleveland had paused. AVO lowered the Volcano Alert Level to Advisory and the Aviation Color Code to Yellow. During 31 August-2 September cloud cover prevented views of the summit crater, but a thermal anomaly at the summit was observed during 3-5 September. Observations on 6 September indicated that the lava dome had resumed growth, reaching 120 m in diameter and filling the floor of the crater. AVO raised the Volcano Alert Level to Watch and the Aviation Color Code to Orange. No current seismic information was available because Cleveland does not have a real-time seismic network. Volcano information: Symmetrical Mount Cleveland stratovolcano is situated at the western end of the uninhabited dumbbell-shaped Chuginadak Island in the east-central Aleutians. The 1,730-m-high stratovolcano is the highest of the Islands of Four Mountains group and is one of the most active in the Aleutians. Numerous large lava flows descend its flanks. It is possible that some 18th to 19th century eruptions attributed to Carlisle (a volcano located across the Carlisle Pass Strait to the NW) should be ascribed to Cleveland. In 1944 Cleveland produced the only known fatality from an Aleutian eruption. Recent eruptions from Mt. Cleveland have been characterized by short-lived explosive ash emissions, at times accompanied by lava fountaining and lava flows down the flanks.
Earthquake overview : At 21:02 local time a moderate shallow earthquake has hit the area in between Duisburg and Nijmegen (Netherlands / Germany border). The hypocenter depth was calculated by GFZ at 3 km.
Update 09/09 09:51 UTC : After screening our many various sources in Germany and in Holland (The Netherlands), we are happy to report that this earthquake made NO damage or did NOT injure people.
Update 09/09 09:45 UTC : We want to make clear for many people thatthe earthquake swarm in the Germany Czech Republic border has NOTHING to do with this earthquake and vice versa.
Hottest U.S. summer in 75 years; La Niña is back; Nate and Maria update
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2011
+3
The U.S. had its hottest summer in 75 years, and Texas smashed the record for hottest summer ever experienced by a U.S. state since record keeping began in 1895, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center said yesterday. The June – August average temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma were a remarkable 1.6°F and 1.3°F warmer than the previous hottest summer for a U.S. state, the summer of 1934 in Oklahoma. Texas’ summer was 2.5°F hotter than their previous hottest summer, in 1998. Louisiana had its hottest summer on record in 2011, and the 4th hottest summer for any U.S. state since record keeping began in 1895. For the U.S. as a whole, the summer of 2011 was the 2nd warmest summer on record, just 0.1°F behind the notorious Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Fifteen states had a summer average temperature ranking among their ten warmest. Washington and Oregon were the only states across the lower 48 to have below-average summer temperatures. Texas also had its driest summer on record, with rainfall 5.29 inches (134.4 mm) below the long-term average, and 1.04 inches (26.4 mm) less than the previous driest summer in 1956. New Mexico had its second driest summer, Oklahoma its third driest summer, and New Jersey and California had their wettest summers on record. The U.S.Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which is sensitive to climate extremes in temperature, rainfall, dry streaks, and drought, indicated that an area nearly four times the average value was affected by extreme climate conditions during summer 2011. This is the third largest summer value of record, and came on the heels a spring season that was the most extreme on record. The CEI goes back to 1910. Figure 1. Average temperatures for the summer in Texas and Oklahoma, at 86.8 degrees F (30.4 degrees C) and 86.5 degrees F (30.3 degrees C), respectively, exceeded the previous seasonal statewide average temperature record for any state during any season. The previous warmest summer statewide average temperature was in Oklahoma, during 1934, at 85.2 degrees F (29.6 degrees C). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
More bad news for Texas: La Niña is back
La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter, NOAA announced yesterday. Over the past two weeks, ocean temperatures have cooled significantly in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures in the region 120°W – 170°W and 5°S – 5°N, called the Niño 3.4 region, were 0.6°C cooler than average over the first week of September. The threshold for a weak La Niña is temperatures 0.5° cooler than average, so we are now experiencing weak La Niña conditions. Drought conditions are common over the southern tier of states during a La Niña event, since the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters usually pushes the jet stream such that rain-bearing low pressure systems pass through the Midwest and avoid the South. It is likely that the drought gripping Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico will continue well into 2012, due to the emergence of La Niña. La Niña events also typically cause wetter than normal winters in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, colder winters in the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains, and warmer temperatures in the southern states.
Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average on September 8, 2011. Cooler than average waters in the equatorial East Pacific signify the emergence of La Niña. In the Atlantic, SSTs remain very warm in the Main Development Region between the coast of Africa and Central America, including the Caribbean. The Gulf of Mexico is cool where Tropical Storm Lee stirred up the water, and the waters off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts are cool due to the passage of Hurricane Irene. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.
Tropical Storm Nate Tropical Storm Nate continues to remain nearly stationary in Mexico’s Bay of Campeche. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate is having trouble with the dry air to its north, which is getting wrapped into the circulation and interfering with intensification. Since the storm is stationary, it is upwelling cooler waters from the depths that are also slowing intensification. Wind shear has fallen to the low range, near 5 knots, so once Nate manages to wall off the dry air to its north and begin moving away from the pool of cool water beneath it, steady intensification should occur. Nate probably has time to intensify to a strong Category 1 hurricane, and perhaps a Category 2 hurricane, before making landfall Sunday in Mexico. The main hazard to Mexico will probably be very heavy rains that will cause flash flooding and mudslides. Thanks to last night’s dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet, the computer models have now come into much better agreement on the future path of Nate. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of the storm, forcing it westward or southwestward to a landfall in Mexico. Nate is too far south to be turned northwards towards Louisiana, as some model runs were suggesting yesterday.
Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain over the weekend from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate’s wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.
Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 1:40 pm EDT Thursday September 8, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Maria Tropical Storm Maria is not changing much in intensity it bears down on the Lesser Antilles Islands, data from an An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft currently investigating the storm reveal. Top winds found by the aircraft at their flight level of 5,000 feet were just 48 mph as of 10am EDT, though some stronger surface winds were observed by their SFMR surface wind instrument. Satellite loops show that Maria’s heavy thunderstorms have steadily increased in areal coverage and intensity this morning. Maria has grown into a very large tropical storm, and will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to nearly all of the islands in the Lesser Antilles. There is still a moderate 10 – 15 knots of wind shear affecting Maria, and this is slowing down intensification. Maria passed just south of buoy 41101 this morning. Sustained winds at the buoy ranged from 22 – 37 mph this morning, and the pressure dropped to 1003 mb. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are now affecting the islands, but the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands.
The intensity forecast models predicts steady strengthening for Maria, and I think likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 – 60 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and develop into a Category 1 hurricane shortly after pulling away from Puerto Rico on Saturday night or Sunday morning. The northeastern portion of the Dominican Republic with get heavy rains from Maria, but not tropical storm-force winds. The computer models are unified on taking Maria across the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and close to eastern Puerto Rico, but then diverge on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast early next week will have. The majority of the models predict that the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas will miss seeing the core of Maria, and the storm will curve to the northwest and then north between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda on a track that would likely take Maria near Newfoundland, Canada. However, two models–the very reliable ECMWF, and the less reliable NOGAPS–predict that Maria will not get picked up by the trough, and instead will plow straight through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas towards Florida. Given that the ECMWF model predicts an unrealistically weak storm and the NOGAPS model was our poorest-performing major model last year, I believe a more northerly path missing the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas is more likely. We need a dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet to help reduce some of the track uncertainty, but unfortunately we have only one such airplane, and it is tied up flying missions for Tropical Storm Nate in the Gulf of Mexico.
Lee’s rains trigger historic flooding in New York and Pennsylvania
Rivers in New York and Pennsylvania swollen by record rains from the remains of Tropical Storm Lee have mostly crested and are on their way down this morning, but it will likely be another day before many of the 120,000 people evacuated from the historic floods can return to their homes. Flooding in many areas of Pennsylvania and New York exceeded that ofHurricane Agnes of 1972, which did $11.8 billion in damage (2010 dollars), and was the costliest hurricane in Pennsylvania’s history. Binghamton, New York received 8.48″ of rain in the 24 hours ending at 8 am EDT yesterday. This is nearly double the previous all-time record set just last year, when 4.68″ fell on Sep 30 – Oct. 1, 2010. Binghamton has also already broken its record for rainiest year in its history; records go back to 1890. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton crested at 25.71′, its highest level since records began in 1847, and spilled over the flood walls protecting the city. Rainfall amounts in Pennsylvania were even greater, with Harrisburg receiving 13.30″, and a storm-maximum 15.37″ falling in Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania. In Wilkes-Barre, PA, the Susquehanna River crested at 38.83′ at 1:45 am this morning, just below the 41′ flood wall protecting the city. The flood walls were 37′ back in 1972 when Hurricane Agnes’ rains pushed the Susquehanna River to 41′, flooding the downtown area with 9′ of water, damaging or destroying 25,000 buildings and causing $1 billion in damage.
NASA’s UARS satellite weighing over six tons will come down this month uncontrolled
Published on September 8, 2011 8:20 am PT
– By Jim Duran – Writer
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller
No larger image
(TheWeatherSpace.com) — NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is going to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere late this month or early next.
NASA announced on Wednesday that this will be uncontrolled, which means they do not know yet where it will go.
Furthermore, NASA states most of the satellite will burn up in the atmosphere, but there will be pieces that make it to the ground. Being this is an uncontrollable re-entry, it could threaten interests on the ground and in the air.
Some predictions paint September 26th as the day the satellite comes down. NASA will update weekly until the final four days of the expected re-entry and then push the updates to daily.
Major power outage hits from San Diego to New Mexico on Thursday
Published on September 8, 2011 5:10 pm PT
– By Dave Tole – Writer
– Article Editor and Approved – Warren Miller
No larger image
(TheWeatherSpace.com) — Power is out from San Diego into Arizona, and New Mexico in spots, blamed on hot conditions in the Southern California desert.
San Diego Gas and Electric spoke this evening when millions of people were affected with a power outage before 4 p.m. local time.
he spokesperson states that “power will be restored soon as other plants come online” but does not have an approximate time for it.
The internet is abuzz with possible reasons. An X-Class solar flare erupted from the Sun a couple days back which could result in a solar storm today or tomorrow.
Then you have the more realistic reason being the hot temperatures over 115 degrees overloaded the grid in the desert, causing the blackout.
“Temperatures are very hot out there in the Southern California desert,” said TWS Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin. “Anytime you have something of that magnitude you will get power failures. It is a plausible option but not for sure.”
Others tell TheWeatherSpace.com it was traced to someone removing a piece of monitoring equipment at a power substation in Southwestern Arizona.
(My Commentary: Myths are pervasive throughout cultures, and in many ways support us in all we are. At this time, it is well to look at the ideas within both ourselves and our culture as things change so rapidly and concepts morph and take on new meaning and symbolism. The Divine Spark always holds within itself a bit of madness, but then madness is something that can take on many forms and is, at times, the sanest approach to a shifting vibration.)
The Myth, The Hero, And The Lie
By Tom Kenyon
The concept of a living myth has intrigued me for many years, ever since I discovered Dr. Carl Jung’s work with archetypes during my undergraduate training. The idea of a living myth is alien to many in our materialistic society. For most people, myths are imaginary stories from another time, seeming to have little modern relevance. But a living myth is forged in the depths of our psyches, and it is both alive and potent with psychological power. Although living myths exist only in the subterranean passages of our unconscious, they nevertheless affect our outer world in very direct ways.
These mythological realms live unseen for the most part in the shadowy mists of our underworld. But occasionally they push through the veil of self-forgetfulness and land splat in our conscious everyday world. The young man rushing for the last touchdown of a football game, the crowd driven to their feet by mass hysteria, has suddenly been thrust into the myth of the hero. The mother who rescues her child from danger becomes, for a moment, the heroine.
There is power in myth, and every society instinctively knows this. In times of national crisis (i.e., war) societies quickly cast themselves as the Hero within their own minds. Anyone who opposes them becomes villainous. And when a culture begins to turn fascist, people are viewed as villainous just for asking intelligent questions about national policy and cultural attitudes. This pattern has been clearly repeated, ad nauseam, throughout all history, our current global crisis being no exception.
But no matter how unwieldy the global situation appears, it is fundamentally fueled by individual spiritual, psychological and economic choices. As individuals change their personal choice making, we will see an immediate shift in global affairs. And so it is to the individual that I wish to turn my attention in this discussion.
It is a long strange road we will take together here. We shall travel through lands of psychosis, mental illness, creative brilliance and spiritual illumination. Hopefully, we will gain some insights, along the way, that will help us in our own lives. And perhaps we will find, in the experience of others, some insight to help us in the extraordinary psychological and spiritual challenges we are facing at this time.
No one really knows exactly how the energies of 2012 will unfold. To be sure, though, 2012 will come with unique challenges and an unprecedented acceleration of revolutionary change. The sense of urgency in the air, building for the last few years, will grow.
Most likely you are feeling more anxious now and you have more questions that don’t seem to have answers. Regardless of what you think will unfold in 2012, you know deep within your bones that you and humanity are at a crucial crossroads. You know that much needs to change within people and within society – otherwise the light-filled reality you want to inhabit cannot come into being. You understand, of course, that you are an integral part of the mix and that your own spiritual transformation is vital.
You know that there is nothing ordinary about this juncture. You can sense this even if you don’t watch the news and even if you pay no attention to the plethora of prophecies about 2012. Since you reside within such extraordinary moments of time, how can you best prepare for what’s coming next?
Tips for 2012 Preparation
The following are some guidelines to help you prepare for the changes of 2012. You can work with these ideas now and as 2012 unfolds. Begin your preparations early so that you can move through the chaos with more ease. You then will be more peaceful – helping yourself and others. Do not underestimate the potency of one peaceful person in a family, work environment, or other group. You can and do make a difference by generating peace.
Become friends with change. As a divine changemaker your role during these pivotal times is to be at the forefront of society’s changes. Your task is to master the art of consciously facing and moving through change, being the example, and showing others how to do the same. To do this, you must learn to become more comfortable with change. To be where you are right now on your spiritual path, you had to open your mind to view change in a radically different way. Compared with some other people in your circle, therefore, you likely have an easier time with some of the changes occurring now. The next step is to embrace change as though it was a true friend. That is more challenging but you are encoded to do it. You know at your core that the most progress happens in times of greatest change. Inquire within daily to discover how you can lighten up about the changes that you encounter.
Update your relationships. As you move into increasingly chaotic energies it becomes more vital to keep your relationships up to date. Reevaluate them now and regularly over this coming year. Consider how you can improve your communications – including words you say and feelings you express. How consciously you communicate with others will determine the quality of the relationship and how well it serves you. Space is important too. Consider whether your relationships allow you and others enough space. Respecting your own and another’s space is a key ingredient in a successful relationship. To weather the ups and downs of these times, you will need more alone time, more contemplation time, and more breathing room than before. When you come together with someone, you want to be present and a good listener and to feel that same response from the other person. Regularly explore the dynamics of your relationships, inviting your intuitively guided reason to show you needed adjustments. Strive to be as genuine as you can as much of the time as you can – with everyone.
Calm your mind and body. This is easier said than done when you are facing a constant stream of stressful events and unknowns. Most likely you have learned a number of methods for coping with stress – like meditation, breathing, and shifting your focus away from worry. You may work with at least one such tool regularly, and yet with today’s level of chaos, you can still feel anxious. Having power over your own mind and emotions will become an essential skill in 2012 and beyond. As a divine changemaker, you are learning to master life’s turbulent waters and find the calm. You can calm yourself like no one else can. When your calm state comes from within, generated by your own internal shifting, you connect with an unshakeable peace. No drug can give you this. No other person or thing can give you this. The parade of change in 2012 will give you ample opportunities to further master how you respond to chaos. Set your intent now that you will be an ongoing voice of grounded reason and calmness. Invite your higher wisdom to give you daily guidance and help in mastering this light-filled way of being.
As you continue the journey of discovering your divine nature, we surround you with our love and blessings. We are The Council of 12.
Copyright 2011 by Selacia, Channel for The Council of 12 * All Rights Reserved *www.Selacia.com
(These kinds of things just add more questions to the whole question of origins)
African fossils put new spin on human origins story
By Jonathan AmosScience correspondent, BBC News
Professor Chris Stringer, with the help of a cast of a fossil skull, describes the similarities that this species has with modern humans
The ancient remains of two human-like creatures found in South Africa could change the way we view our origins.
The 1.9-million-year-old fossils were first described in 2010, and given the species nameAustralopithecus sediba.
But the team behind the discovery has now come back with a deeper analysis.
It tells Science magazine that features seen in the brain, feet, hands and pelvis of A. sediba all suggest this species was on the direct evolutionary line to us – Homo sapiens.
“We have examined the critical areas of anatomy that have been used consistently for identifying the uniqueness of human beings,” said Professor Lee Berger from the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg
“Any one of these features could have evolved separately, but it is highly unlikely that all of them would have evolved together if A. sediba was not related to our lineage,” the team leader informed BBC News.
The female’s right hand is missing only a few bones
It is a big claim and, if correct, would sideline other candidates in the fossil record for which similar assertions have been made in the past.
Theory holds that modern humans can trace a line back to a creature known as Homo erectus which lived more than a million years ago. This animal, according to many palaeoanthropologists, may in turn have had its origins in more primitive hominins, as they are known, such asHomo habilis or Homo rudolfensis.
The contention now made for A. sediba is that, although older than its “rivals”, some of its anatomy and capabilities were more advanced than these younger forms. Put simply, it is a more credible ancestor for H. erectus, Berger’s team claims.
CHUGINADAK ISLAND, ALASKA-Mount Cleveland, a strato-volcano perched on Chuginadak island, has had its Volcano Alert status raised back up to “Watch” and its Aviation code re-raised to “Orange.”
This comes as observations of the volcano yesterday that the small lava dome in the summit crater has resumed growth and now fills the floor of the crater.
A persistent thermal anomaly has been observed since September 3, probably marking the timing of resumed lava dome growth. The size of the dome as of August 30 when it appeared to have stopped growing was approximately 262 feet in diameter. The current dome is approximately 394 feet in diameter. If dome growth continues, lava flows onto the flanks of the volcano may develop but would not be hazardous to aviation. The presence of the lava dome increases the possibility of an explosive eruption, but does not necessarily indicate that one will occur. Short-lived explosions could produce an ash cloud that exceeds 20,000 ft above sea level. These events can occur without warning and may go undetected in satellite imagery for hours.
The team at the Alaska Volcano Observatory were unsure on September 2nd, whether the 6.8 earthquake had disturbed the apparent rest of the volcano. But, satellite information began to trickle in on the next day as the first of the anomalies since the down-grade of the volcano made itself known. That information had the volcano obscured by cloud cover so no determination could be made then. It wasn’t until yesterday that a better view of the summit of the volcano could be seen.
Although no connection has been made, the 6.8 earthquake and its numerous after-shocks felt on and after September 2nd, may very well have been responsible for the current activity at Mount Cleveland.
There was another after-shock from the September 2nd quake again early this morning at 2:36 am measuring 4.4 magnitude.
The female’s right hand is missing only a few bones